Someone's Bubble Will Be Burst
Frank Vitovitch
Thursday, March 9, 2000

New York, NY - The Big East will get 6 teams in the field of 64 for the NCAA Tournament, but which 6?  Miami, St. John's, Connecticut and Syracuse will definitely be four of the six which leaves two spots to fill for Villanova, Seton Hall, Notre Dame, and a dark horse who may get some talk now that they upset Syracuse, Georgetown.

All four teams took care of business in the first round by winning there game.  Georgetown beat West Virginia, Villanova beat Pittsburgh, Seton Hall beat Providence, and Notre Dame beat Rutgers.  Which ever teams advance past the second round however may be the ones who get the tourney bids.

Georgetown took care of business by upsetting the #1 seed.   Now, Georgetown only had 16 wins in the regular season, but if they could someone beat Connecticut and advance to the finals of the Big East Tournament, there will be more than one selector giving them a serious look.  As of now they have 18 wins and with an 19th win over Connecticut, they could get a look.  They are still however have the smallest chance of the four teams on the bubble.  They could also get the automatic bid if they find a way to win the Big East Tournament.

Seton Hall was defeated by Connecticut earlier today and find themselves still very much on the bubble.  They have 20 wins overall (including the tourney).  They played poor down the stretch, losing 5 of their last 7 games.   Many people are penciling Seton Hall in as the 5th team from the Big East to get a tourney invitation, but with the way they played down the stretch and by only winning one game in the Big East Tournament, if Notre Dame and or Villanova advance to the semi's both could leap frog Seton Hall, especially Notre Dame with their five wins over top 25 ranked teams.

Notre Dame will square off against Miami in one of the most important games in Notre Dame basketball in recent years.  A win over the Hurricanes could put the Irish in the NCAA Tournament, but a loss and they are more on the bubble than Seton Hall.  Notre Dame has a lot of factors in its favor.  They played better down the stretch than Seton Hall, they have 5 wins over top 25 teams, they have another 4 quality losses (Arizona, Maryland, Indiana, Syracuse), their RPI should go up with Georgetown beating Syracuse since the Irish torched the Hoyas last Saturday.   Notre Dame has to win tonight though or they could be on the outside looking on Sunday.

VIllanova hurt its chances with a loss to Boston College in their regular season finale, but they still have a decent shot.  They play very well for a young team, but have had trouble against the more athletic teams which doesn't help them any in their quarterfinal match against St. John's tonight.  The Wildcats. like the Irish, need to win tonight to solidify their tournament spot.  A win over St. John's should put them in over Seton Hall in my opinion since they have a slightly better RPI and would have the same # of wins plus they would have gone farther than Seton Hall.

Miami and St. John's are good teams, but they are far from unbeatable.  Miami had Notre Dame's number in the regular season, beating them twice.   The Irish have a great chance in this game however.  Senior Jimmy Dillon is leading the team very well and he will be playing with a lot of heart tonight (as always) since this is his last chance to make it to the Tourney.  Troy Murphy also wants to get in bad, and could carry the team past Miami if he has to.  I predict that the Irish win a close one over Miami.

Villanova played St. John's very tough in the regular season, but had to play a pretty tough game against Pittsburgh last night while the Red Storm relaxed which gives St. John's an edge here.  St. John's is more experience and quicker, but the Wildcats won't roll over and die too easily.  I had predicted Villanova to win this game earlier this week, but I think it is looking more like St. John's with the game 'Nova played last night.

Georgetown's Cinderella run should end tomorrow.  With two hard fought wins they Hoyas could run out of gas against a UConn team that won rather easily both times.  I see Notre Dame winning tonight as well.  Villanova is a question mark.  If the Wildcats beat Miami, they will be in.  The Big East won't get seven teams in so while many people believe that Seton Hall may already be in, they could find themselves heading to the NIT if Notre Dame and Villanova each win tonight since either Notre Dame or Villanova would be in the finals.

I still am sticking with my prediction of Notre Dame in the Big East Tournament finals however since there is no team the Irish can;t beat that is left in the Tourney.  In fact, Miami and Villanova are the only teams the Irish haven't beaten that are still alive.  They beat UConn twice, St. John's, and Georgetown.

Go Irish!