Brunson: Weekly Top 25 Preview
UHND.com - Joe Brunson
11/8/2001
How Am I Doing?
Last Week’s Games Overall
12-6 (66.7%) ATS 88-55 (57.5%) ATS
15-3 (83.3%) Straight-up 122-21 (85.3%) Straight-up
Top 25 Matchups
#1 Miami (7-0) –18 At Boston College (6-2) 12:00pm ET
Miami could control its own National Championship hopes as they are ranked #2 in the BCS. If they win out, it is more than likely they will end up in the Rose Bowl. Miami is looking to extend the nation’s longest winning streak to 18 games when they travel to Chestnut Hill. Boston College has had a week off to prepare but had a huge surprise on Tuesday. The nation’s second leading rusher, William Green, has been suspended for one game for breaking an unidentified team rule. Without Green, Brian St. Pierre will need to have his A game to pull off the upset. No way it happens, as Miami boasts the best secondary in college football. Safety Edward Reed moved into the Miami record book with his 19th career interception, tying Bennie Blades' school mark. Look for Miami to stifle the Eagles’ offense without their major threat and Miami should pull away in the second half. Hurricanes by 24.
Kansas State (4-4) At #2 Nebraska (10-0) –14 3:30pm ET
Kansas State is the last team to beat the Cornhuskers. However, this time its in Lincoln, where Nebraska has not lost to KSU since 1968. The Wildcats seem to be back on track by outscoring their last two opponents 82-6. Josh Scobey has spearheaded the effort with 369 yards and four scores while the defense has held their opponents to only 70 yards on 53 carries. Even with those impressive numbers, Nebraska should have no trouble disposing of the Wildcats at home. The best part of the Husker defense is their run-stoppers and KSU has not shown any ability to make the big throws. Bill Snyder has only won two of his last twenty-two games against ranked opponents. The Wildcats should come in fired up and could keep it close, but Nebraska will seal it in the second half. Nebraska by 13.
#3 Florida (7-1) –12.5 At #15 South Carolina (7-2) 7:45pm ET
Florida continues to lead the nation in total offense (557.6 ypg) and passing yards (430.5 ypg) while ranking second in scoring (44.9 ppg). Last season they fell behind South Carolina 21-3 in the first quarter before rattling off 38 unanswered points. The Gamecocks have not beaten Florida since a 7-0 victory in 1939. Florida must still play Florida State, Tennessee, and the SEC Championship. If Florida wins out, they could find themselves right back in the championship game. Lou Holtz is up to his old tricks by saying his Gamecocks are lucky to be on the same field as the Gators and maybe should just forfeit to lose 2-0, that way he can say they played them close. If Lou is going to keep it close, he must come out fast. Florida has outscored opponents 211-38 in the first half this season. Obviously, this is a must win game for Florida, but South Carolina has a little riding on it as well. They are trying to get their sixth win in the SEC for the first time in the history of the program. Look for Lou and Skip to have a few gimmick plays for the Gators. However, Florida could be the best team in the nation and should have more players than South Carolina. Gators by 10.
Texas A&M (7-2) At #4 Oklahoma –18 (8-1) 12:00pm ET
Bob Stoops thinks Jason White might see some action against A&M, but Nate Hybl will definitely get the start. He threw for 347 yards last week, so his confidence should be back after being benched after his 6th start this season. The Aggies gained 372 yards in their loss last week to Texas Tech, but couldn’t score as turnovers and missed opportunities plagued them throughout. They will get WR Greg Porter back in the lineup this week, which should help. Oklahoma’s offense still isn’t meshing like last season, but their defense is right there. Hybl may struggle against the wrecking crew but he should have some nice field position to work with. Look for a close game at the half, but the Sooners should pull away late in the third. The Aggies allowed 306 passing yards by the Red Raiders. If Hybl gets going, Quentin Griffith could be a huge factor in the second half. Oklahoma wins by 14 in a low scoring game.
Kansas (2-5) At #5 Texas –33.5 (8-1) 12:30pm ET
Chris Simms has played as good as any QB in the country after the loss to OU. In the four games, Simms has thrown for 969 yards and 14 touchdowns. He has had help on the ground as Cedric Benson rumbled for 496 yards during that span. Interim coach Tom Haynes will get to see it all in person when he brings his Jayhawk squad to Austin. Kansas has been outscored 129-47 in their last three games and are coming off a 51-7 walloping from Nebraska. Look for Texas to continue it dominance and paste the Jayhawks by 35.
Memphis (4-4) At #6 Tennessee –25.5 (6-1) 2:00pm ET
The last two games between these two foes have been decided by a total of three points with four of the last five meetings decided by five points or less. This season Tennessee is starting to show their balanced offense. Casey Clausen has a QB rating of 140.9 and Travis Stephens has rushed for 933 yards while gaining just under 5 yards/carry. The Tiger defense should be able to keep this game closer than expected, but Tennessee will be too much for Memphis. Vols by 17.
#7 Oregon (8-1) At #16 UCLA –3.5 (6-2) 3:30pm ET
Joey Harrington tied a school record last week by tossing six touchdowns in their win over Arizona State. The real threat from the Duck offense has been by Onterrio Smith and Maurice Smith. They have combined for 1,662 yards and 13 touchdowns. UCLA has seen better times this year. DeShaun Foster gained 102 yards last week while Cory Paus competed with a bruised thumb but was ineffective in the loss. The big news this week will be how UCLA plays without Foster. He has been declared ineligible for the Oregon game due to an unspecified "extra benefits" violation. Onterrio Smith is averaging 6.8 yards/attempt and should combine with Smith to have a nice game in Pasadena. Oregon is on a roll right now while UCLA is reeling. The Bruins still have a good defense, but there is a chink in the armor and Oregon is too balanced not to find it. Look for the Ducks to give up some points but come away with the minor upset. No Foster, No way the Bruins win. Oregon by ten.
#8 Washington –3.5 (7-1) At Oregon State (3-5) 4:00pm ET
The Beavers are looking for anything to turn this season into a positive experience. Enter the Huskies. Washington has come from behind in the fourth quarter in 13 of its 25 wins under Coach Rick Neuheisel, including five times this season. They have also beaten Oregon State 13 straight times. The Beavers have not found any consistency on offense. Preseason Heisman Trophy candidate, Ken Simonton, has gained only 629 yards this season while QB Jonathan Smith has thrown just eight touchdowns with eight picks. Washington has not been able to put anyone away until last week. In the Stanford game, Cody Pickett threw for 291 yards and Willie Hurst added 108 while the team scored the last 14 points in the game to seal the victory. Washington may not win pretty, but they keep winning. Oregon State has found ways to lose games this season. The Huskies are playing with plenty of confidence and should stay in the PAC-10 hunt with a 13-point win.
#9 BYU (9-0) –23 At Wyoming (2-6) 3:00pm ET
The Cougars’ schedule is ranked 109th in the nation and playing a hapless Wyoming team will do nothing to increase their chances of getting a berth in the BCS. BYU can clinch a share of the Mountain West title with a victory in Laramie. Wyoming is giving up 32.8 points per game and considering BYU scores 50 a game, it could be a long day for the Cowboys. Defensively, the Cougars are ranked 66th in the nation, so they may give up some points as well but Wyoming has no shot at staying close. BYU stays undefeated with a 31-point win.
North Carolina State (5-3) At #10 Florida State –18.5 (6-2) 3:30pm ET
Florida State is 39-0 against ACC opponents at home and 25-0 in Homecoming games since Bobby Bowden took over the helm. Chris Rix seems to have the offense figured out since the loss to Miami. He has thrown for 924 yards and 10 scores in those three games. The Wolfpack have been great on offense behind Phillip Rivers’ 133.4 rating. However, the defense has been more than suspect. They gave up 400 yards passing to Duke last week. Chuck Amato may also be without three starters on defense. With little to no running game, Rivers will have to do it all for a win. FSU is playing very well of late and look for it to continue in a 21-point win.
Clemson (5-3) At #11 Maryland –7 (8-1) 7:00pm ET
Maryland still has a chance at the ACC title even with the loss to Florida State due to the conference tie-breaking system. ACC rules stipulate that in an average of the two major polls, if the loser of a game between two teams is ranked at least five spots above the other, the ranking supercedes the head-to-head meeting. However, they must beat Clemson first. Last week the Tigers gave up 557 total yards to the Seminoles. This team goes as far as Woody Dantzler does. If he is on they can beat anyone in the country. But when his is off, well, just look at the North Carolina game. Clemson’s defense is giving up 28 points/game and with the balanced efforts of Terps, Bruce Perry and Shaun Hill, the Tiger defense could be in for a long day. Maryland is playing tough at home this year and with a speedy defense, they should be able to curtail Woody just enough to come away with a 10-point win.
#12 Washington State –2 (8-1) At Arizona State (4-4) 6:30pm ET
Washington State cannot afford to look past the Sun Devils towards the Apple Cup next week. They will again have to play without the efforts of their leading rusher Dave Minnich. Luckily for them, Jason Gesser has been playing well enough for the defense to take over. The Cougars are not known for a stingy defense. Nevertheless, in the last two-weeks, they have given up only 259 and forced eight turnovers. ASU has lost their last two games and their QB Jeff Krohn. He is cleared from a concussion to play this week but he will need a big game from Delvon Flowers to keep up with Gesser. I think the Cougars realize what is at stake and will win a close game. Cougars by 4.
Minnesota (3-5) At #13 Michigan –16 (6-2) 12:10pm ET
After last week’s bitter defeat, it will be intriguing to see how the Wolverines respond. Of course, 107,000 screaming Michigan fans won’t hurt. Even with the loss, Michigan will win the Big 10 if they finish the season unblemished. T.J. Duckett may have gained 211 yards on them, but they are still a very good defense. Having said that, Minnesota comes to Ann Arbor averaging 424 yards and 29 points/game. The "Little Brown Jug" will be on the line during this game. History favors Michigan as they have won 12 straight versus the Gophers. This game should be no different, but emotionally, the Wolverines must be down. Look for Minnesota to give Michigan all they want in this one. However, the secondary in Minnesota will not be able to stop Marquise Walker and company. Michigan wins by six, but it may come down to the fourth quarter.
Penn State (3-4) At #14 Illinois –10.5 (7-1) 3:30pm ET
During the Nittany Lions’ last two wins, Zack Mills has thrown for 560 yards and ran for another 173 with six touchdowns. Penn State has turned one of the most anemic offenses in the nation, to a force to be reckoned with. Meanwhile, Illinois is seeking their first 8-1 start since 1983. They overcame six turnovers to beat Purdue last week and Kurt Kittner is playing like a future NFL quarterback with 2,138 yards and 16 touchdowns this season. Penn State has beaten the Illini seven straight times and are looking to go bowling. Look for a revamped Penn State team to keep this closer than it should be, but Illinois has been playing like the veteran unit they are. Fighting Illini by 10.
#17 Georgia Tech –14 (6-2) At Virginia (3-6) 3:30pm ET
Georgia Tech will be trying to do something they haven’t done since 1990, win in Charlottesville. George Godsey leads the Yellow Jackets into battle with a 143.8 rating and his team averages 33.9 ppg. Tech is playing some of the best ball in the country while Virginia’s season keeps getting worse. After upsetting Clemson, the Cavaliers have gone 1-5 and up until last week haven’t scored over 7 points since October 13. Look for Tech to completely shut down Virginia’s offense and run away in the second half. Jackets by 28.
West Virginia (3-5) At #18 Syracuse –14.5 (6-2) 12:00pm ET
Syracuse has won seven straight games but needs to be careful not to overlook West Virginia before the Miami showdown. The Mountaineers are coming off their biggest offensive game since 1961 by running up 627 yards and 80 points on Rutgers. However, Syracuse has allowed only 14 ppg. during their win streak and boast an offensive threat of their own with James Mungro. He blasted through the celebrated defense of Virginia Tech for 102 yards. Look for Syracuse to take West Virginia seriously and play like they can. Syracuse by 17.
#19 Stanford -8 (5-2) At Arizona (4-5) 7:00pm ET
The Cardinal ranks second in the PAC-10 in rushing, averaging 191.0 yards per contest and look to take advantage of their last four games against opponents below .500. Neither team can play defense as Arizona gives up 33 ppg and Stanford allows 31 ppg. Chris Lewis will get the start again with Randy Fasani out with his knee injury. Look for Brian Allen to have a big day for the Cardinal in a 10-point win.
#20 Colorado –4 (7-2) At Iowa State (5-3) 7:00pm ET
Colorado still has a shot at the Big XXII Championship. However, it hasn’t been pretty. Craig Ochs won’t play which means Bobby Pesavento will get the nod. He has played well relief with 437 yards passing. The real story on Colorado is still the running game. They are averaging 209 ypg. while Iowa State has shown no ability to stop anyone on the ground. They gave up 343 yards against KSU last week. The Cyclones may come to play at home and keep it close through three-quarters. It will not last as the Buffs’ running attack will take over. Colorado by ten.
Auburn (6-2) At #21 Georgia –8.5 (5-2) 3:30pm ET
This game will be played for the 105th time on Saturday. They have each had a week off to prepare so it should be a good one. Auburn has more riding on this one as they hold a one-game lead over Ole Miss in the Western Division. Musa Smith will be back to sure up the Georgia running game, which should also help out David Greene. Greene has thrown for over 300 yards in three of the last four games. Not good news for Auburn. They have allowed 580 yards and 83 points in their last two games. The Bulldogs are on a roll and given Auburn’s recent lack of defense they should come away with the victory. However, the rivalry should make this game close. Dawgs by 3.
#22 Virginia Tech –23 (6-2) At Temple (2-6) 12:00pm ET
The Hokies need a nice win to get them back on track. They will get it in fashion when they travel to Philadelphia. Kevin Jones will be starting at tailback as he took the job from Keith Burnell. Virginia Tech’s defense should also have a better day as the Owls are only putting up 15.6 ppg. Grant Noel needs to be able to get his game going again. In their two losses, he has only thrown for 280 yards on 30-of-61 passing with three picks. Hokies by 28.
Indiana (2-5) At #23 Michigan State –7 (5-2) 12:10pm ET
Time to see if the celebration is over for the Spartans. If it isn’t they could be caught by a streaky Indiana team. Michigan State has their version of the bus rolling. T.J. Duckett has gained 397 yards in the last two wins and have Michigan State one-game back in the Big Ten title hunt. The biggest question is which Hoosier team shoes up. Antwaan Randle El had 608 yards and six scores in their two wins but has been less than spectacular in their five losses. If he has a big game, Indiana can keep up with the Spartans. However, their defense usually doesn’t stop anyone. Michigan State has too much speed on the outside and should scorch the Hoosier secondary. Spartans by 17.
#24 Purdue (5-2) At Ohio State –6 (5-3) 12:10pm ET
After recording 4 turnovers in the first half, Purdue left the stadium and were stomped by 31-unanswered Illinois points. Ohio State has a much better defense than the Illini and Steve Bellisari completed over 70% of his throws with two scores last week. Jonathan Wells has reached the century mark in his last two games while Ohio State has not lost to Purdue at home since 1988. Look for Brandon Hance to be gun shy on Saturday and the Buckeye defense to keep Purdue in check. However, Bellisari cannot have consecutive great performances, so it may be a low scoring affair. The Buckeyes have played decently this year, as Purdue seems to squeak by on a weekly basis. Ohio State at home by a touchdown.
Houston (0-8) At #25 Louisville –32 (8-1) 2:00pm ET
Dave Ragone has completed 158-of-272 passes for 2,159 yards with 15 touchdowns and six interceptions to lead in Louisville’s success. They should have no trouble with winless Houston and set up a chance for the Liberty Bowl. Houston is allowing 40 points/game while only scoring 19 themselves. Louisville will run all over the Cougars. Cardinals by 35.