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A Title Run?
UHND.com - Patrick O. McCulloch
2/14/2002
It's that time of year of again. Time to look ahead to the greatest single-elimination tournament in the world - the NCAA Men's Basketball Championship. There's always about 75 teams that think they should be getting an invite to the Dance, and as we all know - that's about 10 too many. So, needless to say, this is the time of the year when life in the Big East will turn from frantic to frenzied as each game could be the difference between a spot in the Show, to a spot in the stands. Over the next few weeks, the Big East will be filled with last-second wins and demoralizing losses. Upsets and upset-stomachs. Thankfully, the Fighting Irish shouldn't be concerned with those dramatics, as they've positioned themselves at the top of the league, and are primed and ready for a run at the Big East Title. Other teams aren't so lucky, and their best bet will be to (my apologies to Al Davis) Just win, baby! Here’s how the Big East shapes up today, and how it will shake down in the days ahead:
(Note that Win-Loss records for several teams include wins over non-D1 teams, which do not count towards the RPI., e.g, Notre Dame's record against Division 1-A opponents is only 16-6. Records and RPI rankings are as of Feb. 13th)
Book your flights
Notre Dame: 17-6 (7-3); RPI: 25
Remaining Schedule: @ Rutgers, Syracuse, West Virginia, @ Miami-Florida, @ St. John's, Providence
Outlook: The Irish are the hottest team in the league right now. They missed some golden opportunities to impress the selection committee early with close losses at Indiana and Alabama, and at home against Kentucky. But, a season sweep of the Pitt Panthers has them seeing their spot in the Field of 64. Should be able to manage a 4-2 record over the last six games, and find themselves with a first-round bye in the Big East Tourney. Carroll has been clutch as of late, and Chris Thomas is a superstar in the making at the point. At least one win in the conference tournament would all but assure the Tourney invite.
Pittsburgh: 21-4 (9-3); RPI: 10
Remaining Schedule: @ West Virginia, Rutgers, @ Seton Hall, West Virginia
Outlook: Pittsburgh is still among the nation's best allowing only 59.2 ppg. In addition, four players average 10 ppg or more, giving Pittsburgh a balanced team on both sides of the ball. The Panthers should cruise in the final stretch with the softest schedule imaginable. This would lock up the Big East -West Division Title and a first-round bye in the Big East Tourney. Their high RPI could warrant a #2 or #3 seed in the Big Dance, assuming that they don't stumble down the stretch.
Miami : 20-4 (7-4); RPI: 17
Remaining Schedule: St. John's, @ Rutgers, Notre Dame, @ Providence, Virginia Tech
Outlook: Even though they don't get the fan support of a lot of other Big East teams, the Hurricanes are doing quite well at home this season, posting a 13-1 record in home dates this year. Miami is also the most balanced team in the conference with 5 players (Rice, Salmons, Jones, Tyler, Barnes) averaging in double digit ppg. A key statistic is the team's 75.7% FT average (13th nationally), which will come up big in close tournament games. We'll give them a 3-2 record over the final five and a Big East - East Division Title. Miami is only team in the conference to have a perfect record against ranked teams. We like Miami to garner at least a #4 seeding come Selection Sunday and be a tough team to knock out.
Syracuse: 18-7 (7-4); RPI: 40
Remaining Schedule: @ Notre Dame, @ Seton Hall, Georgetown, @ Villanova, Boston College
Outlook: Syracuse has fizzled as of late, losing 5 of their last 7 games overall. Senior swingman Preston Shumpert is still a force, averaging nearly 21 ppg. Along with Shumpert, DeShaun Williams and Kueth Duany make this team one of the hardest to matchup against due to the offensive skills of all three players. However, the Orangemen are 3-4 on the road, which won't sit well with the NCAA selection committee. The Notre Dame game (Feb. 17th) looms large, as their last chance to beat a quality opponent away from home.
Connecticut: 16-6 (8-3); RPI: 18
Remaining Schedule: Boston College, @ Georgetown, West Virginia, @ Boston College, Seton Hall
Outlook: After starting out 6-0 in conference play, the Huskies have won only 2 of their last 5 Big East games. Caron Butler is a 1st Team conference performer, but the Huskies' youth is catching up to them a bit, and may prove lethal as the post-season tournaments approach. They have a tough finish to the season with two games against Boston College and a visit to Georgetown. Looks like a 2-3 finish for UConn, but with 10 conference wins, a first-round bye in the conference tournament will most likely await them. Could struggle in the NCAAs, though, with a lack of big game experience.
NCAA Bubble Busters
Boston College: 16-7 (5-5); RPI: 47
Remaining Schedule: Providence, @ Connecticut, @ St. John's, Villanova, Connecticut, @ Syracuse
Outlook: The Eagles were a pre-season pick by may experts to win the Big East - East Division. However, prognostication is a delicate art, and January left the Eagles on the bubble heading into the final 3 weeks of the regular season. In fact, B.C. is a mere 4-6 in the New Year, and has lost its swagger that it had early on. However, Troy Bell is still the odds-on favorite to win Player of the Year, and with Ryan Sidney (14.4 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 4.0 apg), the Eagles' "Do-everything" man, Boston College presents the best backcourt in the conference. BC should finish 4-2 over the last six and need only one win in the Big East tournament to clinch possibly the last spot in the NCAA.
St. John's: 16-7 (6-5); RPI: 36
Remaining Schedule: @ Miami-Florida, Virginia Tech, Boston College, @ Duke, Notre Dame, Villanova
Outlook: Possibly the toughest schedule remaining in the conference, especially with a trip to Durham to battle #1 Duke lurking. The Johnnies were basically left for dead when they were sitting at 13-7 at the beginning of February. But 3 wins in a row, including a 85-83 OT thriller against UConn has kept their glimmering hopes alive. I still don't think they're over losing Erick Barkley (to whereever he is now), and the talent level this year hasn't kept up with their teams from the past few seasons. The Red Storm will falter and get to 18-11 heading into the conference tournament. They have to at least get to the championship game to earn an NCAA tourney berth.
N.I.T. Bound?
Rutgers: 15-8 (5-5); RPI: 78
Remaining Schedule: Notre Dame, Miami-Florida, @Pittsburgh, Seton Hall, @ Virginia Tech, @ Georgetown
Outlook: Languishing through the early part of the season, Rutgers has bounced back to .500 in the conference, and has bleak NCAA hopes still alive. Back-to-back victories over Connecticut and Syracuse raised everyone's eyebrows, but honestly, the Scarlet Knights will need a miracle to make it into the Big Dance. Quite frankly, it's amazing that they haven't fallen apart after losing leading scorers Dahntay Jones (Duke) and Todd Billett (Virginia) as transfers in successive seasons. Hats off to first-year Head Coach Gary Waters for keeping the ship afloat while the young kids gain valuable experience. We see a 2-4 finish, which will relegate Rutgers to an N.I.T. invitation.
Georgetown: 15-8 (6-5); RPI: 51
Remaining Schedule: @ Villanova, Connecticut, @ Syracuse, @ West Virginia, Rutgers
Outlook: Hard to figure this team out. They have arguably the most dominant post-player in the league in Mike Sweetney (19.4 ppg, 10 rpg, 58% FG, 81% FT), a solid veteran point guard in Kevin Braswell, and a host of others in the classic Hoya style (Wilson, Thomas, Riley). They are also 10th nationally in team scoring at 82.3 ppg. Yet, they are the most inconsistent team in the Big East. The heart-breaking 4-OT loss to the Irish could be too much to overcome. A 3-3 finish is likely, leaving them desperate come conference tournament time. The Hoyas would need a Big East Tournament Title to get called on Selection Sunday. The N.I.T. is a tournament that they could win.
Providence: 14-11 (5-6); RPI: 79
Remaining Schedule: @ Boston College, Villanova, @ Virginia Tech, Miami-Florida, @ Notre Dame
Outlook: Like Georgetown, Providence has been schizophrenic this season, and now is teetering on the brink of missing the postseason altogether this year. Their schedule is of average difficulty, and they will need to manage at least 2 wins in the final 5 games to make the N.I.T. But a 1-4 finish is not out of the question, and would leave them out of the post-season parties. Otherwise, they could play spoiler to the Hurricanes and the Irish at the end of the season. Senior PG John Linehan is the lone bright spot for the Friars.
Villanova: 13-9 (4-7); RPI: 61
Remaining Schedule: Georgetown, @ Providence, @ Boston College, Syracuse, St. John's
Outlook: It looked as though Villanova was coming back to life after edging UCLA, but after an ugly 46-40 loss to Connecticut in which the Wildcats shot only 26% from the field, you can officially put a fork in any NCAA hopes. Of course, stranger things have happened in conference tournaments, but nothing will happen here. Strangely enough, a team that has lost nearly as many as they've won is nationally ranked in three categories: 9th in 3pt% (40.9), 21st in FT% (74.9) and 25th in FG% (47.6). But, at the end of the day, the W's and L's are what matter 'Nova will be lucky to win 2 games the rest of the way, and will likely be passed over by the N.I.T. as well, due to their poor in-conference record.
Seton Hall: 12-12 (5-7); RPI: 95
Remaining Schedule: Illinois, Syracuse, @ Rutgers, Pittsburgh, @ Connecticut
Outlook: The losses of Head Coach Tommy Amaker to Michigan and PF Eddie Griffin to the Houston Rockets left the Pirates (no jokes, please) without the team leaders that they couldn't live without. The fact is that this is a veteran team that expected a lot more this season. Seniors Darius Lane, Ty Shine and Charles Mange have had scads of playing time over the past few years, but never developed chemistry. Sophomores Andre Barrett and Marcus Toney-El, along with super freshman John Allen will return strong next year. The Hall will only manage 1 win (if that) to end the season, and also fall out of NIT favor due to their Big East record. The Pirates rank nationally in 3-pointers made per game at 8.3, but as the saying goes, "You live by the 3, and die by the 3." Guess which one happened here? Again, only a miracle finish will get them to the Show.
On to next year…
The Mountaineers and Hokies have all but clinched their spots OUT of the Big East Tournament (last team in each division does not earn a berth in the conference tournament.) The Irish could have used the gimmie win over Virginia Tech this year, but considering that they avoided Connecticut and Boston College, the schedule was probably a wash.
W. Virginia: 8-14 (1-9); RPI: 175
Remaining Schedule: Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh, @ Notre Dame, @ Connecticut, Georgetown, @ Pittsburgh
Outlook: A brutal finish will grant only one victory to the Mountaineers over in-state rival Virginia Tech.
Virginia Tech : 7-16 (1-10); RPI: 215
Remaining Schedule: @ West Virginia, @ St. John's, Providence, Rutgers, @ Miami-Florida
Outlook: We don't see the Hokies pulling off any upsets. At least they'll get the #1 pick in the draft
Fearless Forecast:
In the Big East Tournament, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Miami and Connecticut will receive first-round byes. First-round games: B.C. will mash Nova, Georgetown will edge Rutgers, Providence will upend St. John's, and Syracuse will defeat Seton Hall.
In the quarterfinal round, Syracuse will beat out UConn, on a Preston Shumpert buzzer-beater, Georgetown will upset Pittsburgh, Miami will cruise past Providence and the Irish will manage to outlast Boston College in OT.
On to the Friday night Semifinal games, Georgetown will run out of gas and fall to Syracuse by about 8. The Orangemen offense is in high gear. Two football rivals: Notre Dame and Miami will face off in the nightcap and battle through 2 overtimes. The Irish will win when Chris Thomas' floater from about 10 feet is goaltended by Johnny Salmons. The crowd will erupt!
In the finals, the 'Cuse will stake to an early lead on the back of Shumpert and Duany, and lead by 7 at halftime. But the Irish will storm back behind Seniors Ryan Humphrey and David Graves. In the final minute, Matt Carroll will knock down a key 3-pointer and Chris Thomas will toss in four free throws to seal the win, and first ever Big East Tournament Title for Notre Dame.
Hey - it could happen. Of course, this is just my opinion, I could be wrong.
Look for 5 Big East teams to see the NCAA tournament field: Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Miami, Connecticut and Boston College. St. John's, Georgetown and Rutgers should make the N.I.T. invite list.