(UHND.com) – Notre Dame’s 5th seeded draw in the East Bracket of this year’s NCAA Tournament will make a Sweet 16 or better run a daunting task to say the least. The Irish have been placed in the same bracket as the Tournament’s #1 overall seed in North Carolina, a team that arguably could have been a #1 itself in another bracket in Tennessee, and a team that just beat the Irish no less than a month ago in Louisville. Here’s a full breakdown of every team in the East.
#1 North Carolina (32-2, ACC Champion) – The Tar Heels come into the Tournament as the #1 overall seed after winning the ACC Tournament with a win over Clemson. Carolina has lost just two games all year by a combined 13 points to Duke and Maryland. They are led by Player of the Year candidate Tyler Hansbrough’s 23 points and 10.4 rebounds a game. Wayne Ellington chips in 16.7 points a game and shoots 41.8% from three point range. The Tar Heels are the #1 overall seed for a reason – they have plowed through the regular season without much trouble. The ACC was not exactly the toughest conference this year, however, and Carolina won’t plow through the tourney with as much ease.
#2 Tennessee (29-4, SEC) – Bruce Pearl guided Tennessee to one of the more impressive performance this year. The Vols definitely had a case to be a #1 seed. Their four losses this year have all come to Tournament bound teams – #4 seeded Vanderbilt, #2 seeded Texas, #11 seeded Kentucky, and #9 seeded Arkansas. Along the way, Tennessee beat #1 seeded Memphis on the road, #3 seeded Xavier, #7 seeded West Virginia, #12 seeded Temple (A10 champion), and #7 seeded Gonzaga on top of wins over Vandy and Kentucky. The Vols have a trio of players sharing the scoring burden in Chris Lofton (16.1 p/g), JaJuan Smith (14.5), and Tyler Smith (13.6). Smith is an Iowa transfer playing in his first year for Tennessee and adds 6.5 boards and 3.5 assists a night from his forward spot. Lofton and Smith both shot at least 38% from three point range and combined for 199 triples this year. Tennessee is every bit as talented as North Carolina and if they can get out of the bottom half of the bracket, they could easily send the Heels home.
#3 Louisville (24-8, Big East) – Notre Dame fans should be very familiar with the Cardinals after Louisville’s 90-85 win over the Irish on February 28. Louisville plays great defense with their 2-3 zone and gave up just 60.9 points a game this year – 21st in the country. In fact, Notre Dame was just one of two teams this season to top 80 against them. The other, oddly enough, was Seton Hall. Despite their strong defense, Louisville has been inconsistent at times this year and their resume includes a loss at home to Cincinnati and one on the road to Seton Hall. They have had trouble scoring at times this season and do not have anyone on their roster averaging more than David Padgett’s 11.7 points per game this year. Louisville has been incredible in the tournament the last couple of seasons, however, because their style of play fits in perfectly in tournament play. They play great defense, run a great full court press, and pass the ball very effectively. Louisville got bounced from the Big East Tournament in the quarterfinals by Pitt, but are my pick to come out of this bracket and reach the final four.
#4 Washington State (24-8, Pac 10) – The Cougars rolled through the first two and a half months of the year with 16-1 record whose only blemish was a 7 point loss to UCLA on the road. Wazzou’s conference schedule was not as kind, however, and the Cougars lost 7 of the last 15 games to tournament teams Arizona (2 times), UCLA, and Stanford (3 times) with a loss to Cal mixed in. Like Louisville, they have had problems scoring throughout the season and put up just over 67 points a game on the year. Derrick Lowe leads WSU with 14.1 points a game and Taylor Rochestie posses a real threat from outside with a 44.2% shooting percentage from three point range. The Cougs got a tough draw from a Winthrop team that knocked Notre Dame out of last year’s tourney. Winthrop is not as strong as they were a season ago, but are still a pretty tough team for a 13 seed.
#5 Notre Dame (24-7, Big East) – Notre Dame comes into the Tournament after losing their first Big East Tournament contest to rival Marquette. Big East Player of the Year Luke Harangody will lead the high power Notre Dame offense into Denver this week, but the Irish defense will determine how far they advance. Notre Dame’s leaky defense allowed a Marquette team which shot poorly from long range all season to light it up in the Big East quarterfinals and will likely force Notre Dame to simply outscore any opponents on the offensive end. Kyle McAlarney can shoot the lights out when he is on fire as he did against Syracuse last month with a 9 for 11 performance from down town. For the Irish to advance, Tory Jackson will need to continue to draw in defenders with his penetration in the lane to get McAlarney and company open looks. Notre Dame should be able to get past George Mason in the opening round where a matchup with either Washington State or Winthrop would await. A run to the Sweet 16 is not out of the question, but a potential Sweet 16 matchup with North Carolina would await.
#6 Oklahoma (22-11, Big 12) – The Sooners continue of teams who struggled to score, but excel at keeping others from doing so. Oklahoma allowed just two teams to top 70 points in regulation over their final 17 games. Unfortunately for the Sooners, they failed to top 60 points of their in 6 losses over that span including just 49 in a loss to Texas in the Big 12 Championship. Injuries were a big factor for the Sooners this season with both Blake Griffin and Longar Longar hampered with various injuries throughout the season. Both are healthy now and the Sooners play strong enough defense to get passed St. Joe’s in the first round, but that might prove to be challenging enough for the Sooners.
#7 Butler (29-3, Horizon League Champion) – How did the #10 (Coaches)/#11 (AP) team in the country get a #7 seed? Consider that Butler went to the Sweet 16 last year as well and just how they got such a poor seed is even more perplexing. Mike Green has an all around sound game with 14.9 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 5.1 assists per game. Butler has another three players who average double figures as well in A.J. Graves (13.3), Matt Howard (12.3), and Pete Campbell (11.2). Campbell also connects on 44.2% of his three point attempts. This is a very dangerous team and their seeding was a terrible draw for #2 Tennessee. The Vols had a case for being a #1 and not only did they get a #2 instead, they also were rewarded with a potential Top 10 opponent in the second round.
#8 Indiana (25-7, Big 10) – The Hoosiers have had a tumultuous year after the resignation of Kelvin Sampson last month. Indiana lost its last two and three of its last four including a 103-74 blowout at the hands of Michigan State earlier this month. Super freshman Eric Gordon is good enough to take over a game on his own and leads the Hoosiers with 21.3 points a game. Like the Irish, Indiana has no problems putting the ball in the basket on the offensive end, but has struggled on defense since Sampson resigned. The 103 points Michigan State scored on them were the most they had given up in 10 years. Indiana should be able to get passed Arkansas because of their offensive abilities, but anything more is highly unlikely.
#9 Arkansas (22-11, SEC) – The Razorbacks advanced to the SEC Title game where they fell to eventual champ Georgia, but that is likely more a sign of the weakness of the SEC this year. With Florida, LSU, and Kentucky all experiencing down years, the SEC was at its weakest in years this season. Arkansas puts up 73.6 points a game, but struggles from outside shooting just 33.9% from three point range. An upset of Tennessee in the SEC Championship will have Arkansas as a popular pick in the 8/9 matchup with Indiana.
#10 South Alabama (26-6, Sun Belt Champion) – South Alabama lost to Middle Tennessee State for the Sun Belt Conference Title, but enjoyed a great season none the less. The Jags nearly nearly upset tournament bound teams Mississippi (3 point loss) and Vandy (3 point loss in OT) throughout the season so they can bang with the big boys – that is why they were given a 10 seed as a mid-major who didn’t win their conference. Still, South Alabama got unlikely with its draw of Butler in the first round. West Virginia might have been the only tougher 7th seed the Jaguars could have drawn. They’ve shown they can play with big teams and Demetric Bennett and his 20.1 points a game will give Butler a strong test in round one.
#11 Saint Joe’s (21-12, Atlantic 10) – The Hawks got hot in the A10 Tournament and rode that into an at large bid even though they were edged by Temple in the A10 Title game on Sunday. A 22 point win over Villanova and a five point win over #3 seeded Xavier padded St. Joe’s resume. They played some shaky defense at times this year, but bunkered down over the final weeks of the season and held each of their last eight opponents under 70. Their opponent, Oklahoma, is strong defensively but weak offensively so it will be strength against strength and weakness against weakness in this matchup. I’ll give the edge to St. Joe’s.
#12 George Mason (23-10, Colonial Champion) – This year’s GMU team is quite a bit different than the 2006 version. Seniors Will Thomas (C) and Folarin Campbell (G) are the only remaining starters from the Final Four squad, but both will pose a formidable challenge. Campbell leads the team with a 15.9 points per game scoring average and Thomas is second at 15.8 to go along with his 10.5 boards a content. This year’s Mason team does not shoot particularly well from three point range though. Dre Smith shot a NCAA record 10 for 10 from three point range earlier in the season against James Madison, but has been ice cold from downtown ever since. After that January 18th meeting with JMU, Smith has connected on just 23.5 percent from long distance. As a team, the Patriots are making only 35.2% of their three point shots. Mason is very sound defensively and play very disciplined without committing a lot of fouls. Notre Dame will need to force it inside early and often to Luke Harangody to avoid getting “George Masoned” this year.
#13 Winthrop (22-11, Big South Champion) – Last year the Eagles got their first ever Tournament win at the expense of Notre Dame, but do not pack the same offensive punch they did a year ago. They lost head coach Gregg Marshall after last season and struggled through their early season schedule. A strong run through the Big South Tourney and a win over North Carolina-Ashville in the Big South Championship got them back into the Tournament again this season. They will have a chance to upset 4th seeded Washington State because of their defense. WSU has had trouble scoring at times and the Eagles play good enough defense to send them home early.
#14 Boise State, #15 American University, #16 Play-in game – The bottom seeds in the East do not pose much a threat to the top 2 seeds in North Carolina and Tennessee. Both Carolina and Tennessee should coast to easy victories in their first round matchups.
