Notre Dame Football First Quarter Report

With three games behind us it’s time for a quarterly report, even if qualitative.

ASSETS/LIMITATIONS: THE UNITS

We rank the units according to three categories:

(1) FINAL FOUR
(2) MAJOR BOWL
(3) BOWL

This is primarily an evaluation of asset potential and value in the future, albeit based on past results along with other factors that can influence the future performance of the asset.

FINAL FOUR

QUARTERBACK – Evertt Golson has been marvelous. In 2012 he made significant progress in the second half of the year, right through the National Championship game. Then came his suspension. But he turned the sword of the suspension to a plowshare of improvement, personally, physically and with George Whitfield.

Has any college quarterback, or pro quarterback, for that matter ever ended the first half of his first three games of a season with TOUCHDOWN drives that culminated with 5, 34 and 13 seconds left? He has not thrown an interception, has thrown 7 touchdown passes and scored four touchdowns rushing. Rusty after the year away? If that be rust, then douse every player in the rust vat.

Purdue was the first game they let Golson throw to the receivers, but that weapon will soon be even more devastating. Golson’s glittering performance makes this a final four position, even without an experienced, accomplished backup. You’d like that, but few teams have an experienced backup and none of our remaining opponents do. cf Florida State.

After all, a gem like Tommy Rees does not fall into your lap every year! Zaire is in his second year and has played, so he is more experienced than Quinn, Rees and Golson were when they first started.

NONE OF US, NOT EVEN KELLY, KNOW GOLSON’S TRUE UPSIDE

MAJOR BOWL

DEFENSIVE LINE – The starting “five” of Rochell, Okwara/Trumbetti, Jones and Captain Sheldon Day has been extraordinary shutting down the run. Rice and Michigan averaged over 175 yards a game last year, but the first three opponents have been held to less than 100 yards a game rushing. They were disruptive with mobile quarterbacks Driphus Jackson and Devin Gardner. The Defensive Line has been credited with 5 of Notre Dame’s 8 sacks and have generated 11 Quarterback Hurries. Depth remains an issue here. The return of Ishaq Williams would help immediately and, pending the development of the rest of the depth, position the Defensive Line for an upgrade to Final Four status at the midyear evaluation. Grant Blankenship, Justin Utopu and Daniel Cage have been solid reserves. But beyond that there is uncertainty. Chase Hounshell has not validated the flashes he showed as a frosh, Anthony Rabasa is an emergency player, and Jake Matuska probably needs another year. An outstanding DL has 5 playable DE’s and 5 playable DTs and that depth level has not yet been achieved. Special commendation is made for the transition from the 3-4 to the 4-3.

WIDE RECEIVER – William Fuller is a star in the making, and Amir Carlisle gives Notre Dame a legitimate stalwart at slot. Corey Robinson is making weekly strides. When recruited, he was deemed a “project.” He has transformed into an impactful football player, not a mere human interest story, the Admiral’s son. Robinson has expanded his repertoire and his 2014 performance will improve when the thumb cast is removed. C.J. Prosise is a solid, dependable, speedy backup at slot. Chris Brown has started slowly and not yet validated the improvement he showed against Rutgers and throughout the Spring and pre-Fall. This remains puzzling. Explosive Torii Hunter will play in October and could impact the midtterm evaluation/prognosis.

As we go to press, Davaris Daniels’ status is uncertain. In the National Championship game against Alabama he made six catches for 115 yards. He can play and would immediately be the go-to receiver if he were to return. Justin Brent has size and hands, and is an emergency if Daniels never returns. If this unit returns to full strength, it is nearly assured of a grade bump. If Daniels remains out, a rising Brown, a brand new Hunter and a Robinson without a thumb cast could give this unit a grade bump even without Daniels. Remember, in 2012, three guys in our WR rotation were Robby Toma, Daniel Smith and John Goodman. We loved those guys then, we love them now, but we have moved up in class at wide receiver.

SAFETIES – Depleted by the suspension of Eilar Hardy and the injury to Captain Austin Collinsworth, this unit then suffered the year ending  injury to Nicky Baratti. This unit was battered, and made several misplays against Rice. Since then, the threesome of Max Redfield, Elijah Shumate and Drue Tranquill has been stellar, providing productivity far beyond their experience. For the first time in the Kelly regime, Notre Dame can field several safeties with the height, muscle and speed to perform at the SEC level. Certainly, the most sophisticated passing attacks are yet to be faced, but the return of Captain Collinsorth makes this a worthy foursome. Depth to the second string at safety is sufficient.

RUNNING BACKS – With the offensive line problems, this trio has just begun to scratch the surface. Far superior to the confusing, stepwise-discontinuous array at running back in 2013, any of the three can play in any situation. Folston has begun to show the expected maturation as he rounds out the potential he showed in 2013.

Captain Cam McDaniel remains steady but is improved also. Greg Bryant has shown glimpses or teases of his Five-Star potential. He can still follow his blockers more faithfully. The Purdue game saw the unveiling of the passing game to the running backs, and as it unfolds, it will add another dimension to the Notre Dame offense.

The rating will remain at Major Bowl level with only three backs in the cue. Running Backs oft get injured, and this cadre is one body short of the comfortable minimum standard. Productivity will rise proportionally with any improved performance of the offensive line.

BOWL LEVEL

TIGHT END – Ben Koyack has performed like a Senior Tight End at “Tight End University.” But in an era when a full arsenal requires the availability of enough competent tight ends to successfully run two and three TE sets, the young corps has not demonstrated sufficient depth. Durham Smythe, with reportedly outstanding down-field receiving skills, was praised profusely by Kelly during Spring and pre-Fall but is still under wraps. Tyler Luatua has delivered bone-crushing blocks in a couple of cameos. Heueruman remains hurt and Weishar need s a year to bulk up so he can show us his documented receiving skills. We expect some TE presence beyond Koyack by midterm. Otherwise, this rating will remain the same.

CORNERBACKS – KeiVarae’s suspension robbed this unit of the second best (behind Jaylon, ahead of Sheldon) defensive player on the team. There is no such animal as a “lock down corner” but Russell is in the “as close as you get” for college players. Cody Riggs has been a welcomed addition, but he has shown some limitations in coverage and in tackling due solely to his siize, not his effort. Cole Luke is a future star at Notre Dame, but this is his first year starting, and he is not at the Russell level. Devin Butler is capable as the third cornerback, and can be a future starter at Notre Dame, but is still re-acclimating after his injured Spring. One note on Butler, in 2013, Butler played about as well as Luke. Luke was more hyped and drew more ink, but if you watch the films carefully, they were very close. Don’t sleep on Butler. Matthias Farley has shown remarkable recovery but the jury is out on whether he can play the press coverage that the current defensive plan requires. Nick Watkins has been slow in coming, and may be behind where Luke and Butler were last Autumn.

The cornerback area is supposed to provide the depth pool to staff nickel and dime coverage, but it is a shallow pool right now. You need designated nickel and dime players that are worthy to start. We are not there. Stanford, North Carolina, FSU, Arizona State, Louisville and USC all have better passing games than our first three opponents. The cornerbacks will be tested. KeiVarae’s return immediately bumps this unit up from “bowl” to “Major Bowl.”

OFFENSIVE LINE – This unit, more than any other on the team, has had a whole which is significantly less than the sum of the parts. Six players who started at one time returned: Lombard, Martin, Stanley, Elmer, Hegarty and Hanratty. Martin, Hegarty and Hanratty are in their fourth year. But, so far, no one of the players has performed to his previous level or effectiveness, and the unit as a whole is less competent than it was last year, including when the line was rebuilt at the end of 2013 due to injuries.

The result has been quick-closing holes in the running game, and more scrambling for Golson in 2014 than there was for the less nimble Rees in 2013. There is conjecture that Martin may not have healed from his injury, and, Captain or not, it is not beyond the pale that he might no longer start. The six aforementioned, plus McGlinchey, are in the conversation during the hiatus after the first three games. The retooling must be swift, but there is talent, depth and flexibility. Hiestand is here and there is a much deeper depth chart even beyone the first seven. In 2012 we had five players, no sub, no options.

The fierce urgency of NOW! This must be fixed at once. Stanford arrives on the First Saturday in October. Kelly and Hiestand have fixed this before. We previously documented the 2012 experience, when, after the break, the Irish offense ripped through Miami, Stanford, BYU and Pitt for over 250 yards per game on the ground. With a sub-par offensive line, we are averaging 36 points a game. Fix the line and that number will improve substantially.

LINEBACKERS – In the modern era, no defensive player other than Ross Browner has had the same levels of success and impact in his first 16 games (and it took Browner into his third year to play his 16th game) as Jaylon Smith. He must be watched, closely. You can’t appreciate Jaylon just by reading about him. Seeing is believing, understanding and appreciating. He has nominal backups of Greer Martini and Doug Randolph, but it is Smith. He erases mistakes, collapses the field and shrinks openings. Then he makes the tackle when he arrives.

The jury remains out at the other two positions. Onwualu is backed by John Turner and then by Ben “Call me when Stanford gets to town and you need my bulk” Councell. Turner drew praise all Spring, but Onwualu passed him for the starting postion at the top of the stretch in August. So far, Onwualu has 5 tackles and Turner 1. We shall see. But the size, speed, agility profile fits the position. But there is more optimism than pessimism.

Joe Schmidt has drawn much praise from the coaches, but had some bad plays against Rice when he could not finish, and was rescued by Jaylon Smith on the fourth and 2 against Purdue. Schmidt could not make the play. Smith did stopping Mostern at the ND 28. There will be similar situations as our schedule toughens, and Smith can not make all the plays.

October 4th is an important day for the middle linebacking position at Notre Dame. Nyles Morgan remains in the acclimation mode and shows no signs of encroaching on Schmidt’s role. Michael Deeb, surprisingly, has been a non-factor. We will rerank the units after the game in Tallahassee, concurrently with the end of the first half of the season.

CHALLENGES AHEAD – REMAINING OPPONENTS

Ranking the remaining games. NOTE: this is not a ranking of the remaining opponents. It is an ordinal rank of the games in descending degree of difficulty attempting to adjust who we play by factoring in where we play them and when, on their and our schedule.

(1) Florida State University, Doak Campbell Stadium, October 18

We are playing the 2013 defending National Champions and the 2013 Heisman Trophy winner on the road. We have never done that before in the stately and rich history of Notre Dame football. The FSU defense is overshadowed by Winston and his pals, but was extraordinary last year, and populated with great players this year. They were shocked by Auburn last year giving up 21 points and falling behind 21-3. Then the Nole defense adjusted and allowed only 10 Auburn points in the last 35 minutes of the game. Old friend Darby is entrenched at cornerback. Mario Edwards can be the next great ‘Nole DL. And it was the ‘Nole defense that rescued Osceola against Clemson on Saturday.

There is an anomaly in this game. Florida State has beaten the Irish in South bend, Orlando and Miami, but Ty Willingham’s Irish team beat FSU in Tallahassee in 2002. Oe of football’s most wonderful statistic anomalies is that |Ron Zook and Ty Willingham have won more games (1) against Bobby Bowden in Doak Campbell than Steve Spurrier (o), the former coach at Florida has.

(2) USC, Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, November 29

Be not swayed by USC’s post-Stanford loss to Boston College. That BC game was as accurate a portrayal of the USC team as our game against Purdue was of Notre Dame. Read my lips, if you want to judge USC by the BC game, then judge Notre Dame by the Purdue game. Be even-handed and fair-minded. Sarkisian has completed the cleanup job after the stench of Lane Kiffin. He installed the uptempo spread and ran 105 plays against Fresno State. The Trojans have a 4 X 100 relay team masquerading as a receiving corps: Nelson Agholor, George Farmer, Adoree Jackson and John Smith. Some doubt the Trojans because they start two frosh on the OL.

Well, if you’re going to start a frosh its nice to put in one who’s 6’5″ 370 pounds and can drive block like Damien Mama already can. Leonard Willian, Hayes Pullard and Su’a Cravens lead their portions of the defense. The Trojans still are suffering from the scholarship losses from the Bush incident, and they, more than any top 50 team, are vulnerable to a few key injuries. They could be gutted and out of bodies by Thanksgiving weekend. But they showed how good they can be against Fresno and Stanford, their second win in a row against the Cardinal.

The game is in the Coliseum, and is the 40th anniversary of the most horrifying SC-Notre Dame game ever. Notre Dame, with Woody Hayes in the TV broadcast booth, praising the Irish for using Wayne Bullock running wild from fullback, methodically moved to a 24-0 lead. Then USC scored the next 55 points and took only 17 minutes to do so. Ugly, nauseating, nightmarish disaster, is a mere understatement.

(3) Stanford Cardinal, Notre Dame Stadium, Oct 4

Rough, tough physical. It was that kind of game when we beat them with a magnificent goal line stand in ’12. We have now reconfigured our defense and we are no longer a mirror of their defensive size on the front seven. This game will be different from the last four. Our front seven with its new look, will have a special challenge against the Stanford bruisers. Remember when they got 5 Star OLS Andrus Peat, Josh Garnett and Kyle Murphy in one class? Well, they are all starting. So, Oct 4th is when we learn how our front seven will hold up against a relentless huge running attack

But the Stanford team has not seen an offense like this in years, nor a quarterback like the guy wearing #5 in blue. This will be a big moment for the Irish, with a mild scheduling advantage as the Cardinal travels to Washington the week before. But they will be dangerous, as they already have lost to Troy. Shaw will remind them that they need to win to stay in contention for the final four.

One other thing has become evident about Stanford. They are almost unbeatable when they can bully you. Last year they beat ASU twice, by 14 and 24 points, UCLA by 14 and Oregon by 6. All finesse teams. But against the team they could not physically bully, they lost to Utah, USC and Michigan State. Shaw might know this, but Kelly and Van Gorder will know and emphasize it for sure. Syracuse is in front of us, but Stanford will draw a lot of attention.

(4) Arizona State, Sun Devil Stadium, Nov. 11

The Sun Devils struggle against physical teams, getting pounded twice last year by Stanford, barely escaping Utah. We had them on the ropes in AT&T Stadium, but a late interception gave them deceptive momentum. Notre Dame gets a nice schedule quirk here, having a week off and then Navy before traveling to Tempe. Until proven otherwise, the Sun Devils are a finesse team that struggles with a physical team. We out-rushed them 145-65. Sure, Jalen Strong, even given the cadre at USC, may be the best receiver we face all year. Taylor Kelly, while elusive, was not too much for our 2013 defense. We’re a step-and-a-half quicker this year.

Sun Devil Stadium has been an intriguing venue for Notre Dame. We won the first time we played there, after ’88, pounding West Virginia, and clinching our last national championship. And we beat ASU in 1998, the only time we played them there. But some ugly Fiesta Bowl losses occurred, Lou against Colorado after the ’94 season, Davie against Oregon State (Johnson and Houshmanzadeh) after the ’02 season and then Strategic Advantage getting pimp-slapped against Jim Tressel (whose bona fides the Lawrence loudmouth dissed) and Ohio State after the ’05 season. Notre Dame offered a seminar in “Hubris and its consequences” that day. But it was supposed to play a football game.

(5) North Carolina TarHeels. Notre Dame Stadium, October 11

This is the most pristine example of a “sandwich” game that Notre Dame has experienced in recent years. Stanford and FSU are repeat BCS bowl teams, one owns a 3-1 record against the Kelly regime and one is the defending National Champion. North Carolina will be an emotional challenge as well as a football challenge. In fairness,

Carolina will be coming into the game off a difficult three game run, @ East Carolina in a surprisingly emotional in state revenge game, @ Clemson and a home game against always nettlesome Virginia Tech. Larry Fedora arrived in Chapel Hill, big boots stomping, loud with promises of what he was going to do. Fedora put up an 8-4 his first year. But in year two, his team was struggling, losing to ECU 55-21 at home and was 1-5 when Bryn Renner was hurt, going out for the year.

In came Marquise Williams, and Fedora exhaled, a quarterback whose style fit Fedora’s. The Tar Heels roared down the stretch, winning 6 of their last 7 including a bowl romp over Cincinnati, losing only to Division Champions Duke, 25-27. You know the routine, North Carolina will find a way to get up for the challenge of the Irish. You heard it here first, this game may be ugly in every way imaginable. Make up your own mind, but some of us will accept an ugly, mistake-filled game with a narrow victory. Think Purdue on steroids.

(6) Louisville, Notre Dame Stadium, November 22

Louisville’s schedule the last two years was populated with many non-BCS opponents. They move up in class this year into the ACC, without Bridgewater, and we will just see what their record is when they play us. Petrino is an outstanding football coach, notwithstanding his peripatetic ways and his lustful motorcycle rides. But he can coach. And He WILL develop a long line of successful quarterbacks, as he did at Louisville and Arkansas. That is the future. This Louisville team still has a nice defense, but if the Irish can wipe away those salty tears of Senior Day, this win should be achievable. Remember, Louisville Cardinal football is here to stay and they will soon enter and remain in the upper half of the ACC.

(7) Navy, FedEx Field, November 1

Mind the cut blocks! They hey were difficult last year because we allowed them to run the “death by a thousand cuts” offense.” Keenan Reynolds is to Navy what Dee Dowis was to Air Force. But this kind of an unusual, and ,frankly , one dimensional challenge is right in Brian Van Gorder’s sweet spot. Our surmise is that he will accept allowing the risk of 3 or more plays of 50 yards for the reward of attacking and disrupting the Navy slow bleed offense. All 11 eleven players fly to the ball on our defense, but Smith, Shumate, Redfield, Luke and Onwualu fly just a bit faster. This is now a bad match-up for Navy.

(8) Syracuse, MetLife Stadium, Meadowlands, September 27

The Orange lost to a better-than-you-and-the-Big-10-think-they-are Maryland Terrapin team. Seem to rise to the occasion to play the Irish, but we almost always (except for SC in ’11) play better after a full week off. Again, at the strike of midnight in the Meadowlands on September, we will have completed playing three of our weakest four opponents.

(9) Northwestern, Notre Dame Stadium, November 15

The Wildcats for years played over their talen/recruiting level. But just when they were ready to make a move up the ladder by beating Ohio State lst Fall, they couldn’t, and it seemed to take something out of Fitzgerald and the Wildcat program. Their life was complicated, in ways neither we, nor they fully understand, by the Kain Colter contretemps about unionization. As of this date the Wildcats are 2-8 since that traumatic loss to Ohio State. And they catch us after another week off. When we play them, these frosh on defense will be de facto sophomores, and we will be no worse than the second best defense they will have played. Our ordnance on offense will also be too much for the Wildcats.

DEVELOPMENTAL, LONG-TERM ASSETS

The frosh – Springmann ended his career, Hounshell could not escape his apparent size limitations, Collinsworth got hurt 48 hours before the Rice game and Jarrett Grace evokes the Greek God Tantalus. The closer we get to him, the farther he moves away. So in 2014 freshman are playing out of necessity, particularly on defense.

Andrew Trumbetti – A co-starter, sort of, with Romeo Okwara, appears to have mode the most of his early entry. Overall, since we started admitting early entrants to accommodate Kelly’s predecessor, very few have seemed to leverage the jump start. Trumbetti is a football player. His high school coach had coached the McCourtys and he said Trumbetti had similar outstanding athleticism. Trumbetti is a rugged, tough customer, not a afraid to mix it up. Mike Elston will have fun this Spring, with Trumbetti and Okwara still battling for a starting position opposite Rochell and Blankenship, Hayes and Williams fleshing out a remarkable three deep.

Daniel Cage – Born to play defensive tackle (and if we ever 3-4 again, he’s got a ready-to-play body.) He is quick, and explodes from a low stance. Bright future, and next year he should be the third tackle behind Jones and Day. He belongs in the big time. With Jones and Day returning, Cage will not start in 2015, but by next Fall he’ll be one one of America’s ten best second team tackles. Mike Elston, talking on national LOI day, mentioned that Cage was a “pleaser” who listed to and absorbed coaching very well. By next Fall, Longo will have reshaped his body. Think Sheldon Day’s career arc here.

Nyles Morgan – Runs and hits just needs more time and reps before he starts or co-starts. Has the look and feel of Mike in the BVG scheme and will compete this Spring.

Drue Tranquill – He’s just a stud-and a football player. His “nose for the football” is nascent and not a result of training. He was identified by the staff during a Summer Camp in 2013, and was offered even though he’s from Carroll, a smaller school in Fort Wayne. Some staff members argued that there was not a slot for him, but Kelly pulled rank and awarded Tranquill a scholarship. Has speed, power and can already tackle and bring the man down. The only doubt about him is whether he will stay at safety or move down to a linebacking spot. He will be nice relief for Shumate and Redfield in 2015.

Grant Blankenship – Tall and can move, plays with aggression but needs more mass and power. A full year of diet and Longo and he will be a force in 2015. He would be good enough to start but will be behind Okwara, Trumbetti and Rochell. He is an emblem of the kind of depth we are building.

Kolin Hill – A guided missile who only needs to find a launching pad and a target. Underestimated coming in, he will not start in 2015, which will allow Brian Van Gorder to use him in situational substitutions. Watch his sack numbers grow over his career, and his QB hurries. Fast! May deliver the sacks that Prince Shembo was supposed to.

Greer Martini – A surprise, moving past Doug Randolph to be Jaylon Smith’s backup. A bit more athletic than advertised. He needs to mature quickly. Alas! we may be nearing the midpoint in Jaylon Smith’s tenure at Notre Dame.

Nick Watkins – A tall cornerback, just like Devin Butler. Positioned to be the nickel in 2015 and the third cornerback, with Farley as a swing man and the frosh trio of Coleman, Crawford and White constituting the depth. Dad played in the NFL

Offensively, only two players have seen action

Justin Brent – Has been out there, but not yet caught a pass. With Daniels still out, Hunter just getting back in, Robinson with a broken thumb, he has a chance to seize some more significant playing time, but must move swiftly. May be a sign of things to come, in that frosh receivers can now be brought along slowly.

Tyler Luatua – Has already shown himself to be a devastating blocker at TE, may be used more once the OL gets straightened out. As our schedule toughens, he may become more involved on short yardage and goal line plays. We still know nothing about his receiving prowess. For a Special Comprehensive Report on the development of the entire Freshman Class, see Notre Dame Football 2014 Freshman 1st Quarter Report, by Frank Vitovitch.

FIRST QUARTER RESULTS

• 3-0.
• 36.3 PPG SCORED
• 10.3 PPG ALLOWED
• +8 TURNOVER MARGIN (9-1)
• +103 YARDAGE DIFFERENTIAL

FIVE YEAR RESULTS, COMPARISON WITH PRIOR PERIODS

After 55 games, Coach Brian Kelly is 40-15, 24-5 in the last 29 games. In the mode of baseball standings, we compare Kelly’s rankings to previous coaches

• Ara Raoul Parseghian 43-8-4
• Dan Devine 43-12
• Lou Holtz 43-12
• Brian Kelly 40-15
• Bob Davie 33-22
• Schematic Advantage 33-22
• Gerry Faust 30-24-1

It has been a successful first Quarter for Notre Dame football. But our most important quarters are yet ahead. Ever was it thus.

Go Irish!