2015 Notre Dame Defense – An Early Glimpse

Three overarching factors will impact the 2015 Fighting Irish Defense.

First, it is the second year of the Brian Van Gorder defense.  While Van Gorder and Kelly, for counter-espionage  reasons, attempted to downplay the extent of the retooling, it was a complete and radical overhaul.  When the change was made  from the Diaco 3-4 to the Van Gorder 4-3 it was dramatic. All SEVEN of the job descriptions  of the DLS and LBS changed.  Players who had already achieved conscious competence were sent back to square one to begin again in unconscious incompetence.

While the changes for the back four were less extreme, they were still significant.

A year ago at this time, none of the defensive players knew what to expect.  Now they know it. Some are already at conscious competence ready to sniff the lofty air of unconscious competence or “being in the zone.”

To teach the upgrade, Van Gorder and his competent veteran staff have 8 games (the first seven plus the Music City Bowl) to demonstrate to the players how the defense looks when it is played correctly. And they have the teaching counterpoint of the five defensive disasters in November.  It is a more wholesome teaching context if there are demonstrations of success and positive achievement to juxtapose with the areas of failure and needed improvement. The increase in understanding the scheme, the interplay of being comfortable with what the players around you are attempting to do, the nuances and the communication will vastly outweigh the loss of any element of surprise.

Second, there is now a stocked depth chart on both the offensive and defensive lines. Remember that the Irish added some preferred walkons on the offensive line,  so this Spring there will be a functional three deep on both sides of the ball which will allows for more full  contact scrimmages, and unlimited robust line drills. The physical line play shown by the Irish in Nashville should be here to stay and more fully installed after a  rigorous Spring of a lot of hitting among the 25 or more OLS and DLS.

Third, because of a strange triad of circumstances, the defensive depth chart immediately changes from young/shallow to mature/deep.  Those three circumstances are:

(1) Only Riggs, Hardy and Utopu of the Music City bowl contributors depart

(2) Two putative starters, Ishaq Williams and KeiVarae Russell are scheduled to return

(3) Because of the extraordinary late close to the 2014 recruiting roster on the defensive side, and the number of players who redshirted,  the defensive depth chart, at least for the front seven and at cornerback, is brimming with talent and numbers.

Each year, the roster, and it’s true at almost every school, has an Achilles Heel. In 2015, the Irish Achilles Heel for depth will be at safety.

While it is perilous to guesstimate the starting defensive lineup for Texas on September 5^th, , a reasonable Winter estimate would show six fourth year players (Ishaq Williams, Sheldon Day, Jarron Jones, Romeo Okwara, KeiVarae Rulssell, Elijah Shumate),  four third year players (Jaylon Smith, James Onwualu, Cole Luke and Max Redfield) and just one soph – Nyles Morgan.  If Schmidt or Grace hold serve over Morgan that would make it seven  fourth year players, and four third year players.  That would be one of the more mature defensive lineups in America.  This theme will be developed as we review the various units.

Don’t snooze on the extent of the returning experience and achievement on defense.  The Irish return the top  ELEVEN tacklers of 2014, 14 of the top 15. But it’s better than that as Russell was the #5 tackler in ’13.  The Irish return the players who generated 14 of the 16 interceptions, return the players who generated 25 of the 26 sacks, 66.5 of the 72 tackles for loss.  We would be surprised  if any of America’s top 60 teams return as much of their defensive “production” as the Irish do. And then there are always KeiVarae Russell and Ishaq Williams.

DEFENSIVE LINE

Preliminary note: the battle for defensive end will be a donnybrook among Ishaq Williams, Isaac Rochell, Romeo Okwara and Andrew Trumbetti. We’ll take a Wintertime uneducated guess and go with the Seniors, but the battle will rage.

Starting lineup:  Ishaq Williams, Jarron Jones, Sheldon Day, Romeo Okwara. Suddenly, the starting front four is mature, experienced, tall, thick and talented.

There will be few better tackle tandems than Day and Jones. Jones is the poster child for talent identification and player development for this staff. He was deemed by the recruiting non-gurus to be ticketed for the OL.  His career started slowly, igniting during the second half of his redshirt frosh
year.  He was a force in 2014 before his injury, and became adept at collapsing the pocket from the middle. This helps the outside pass rush and could be an asset in 2015.  Day leads like a Captain, and plays like an All-American.

Ishaq Williams is the biggest tease on campus since the DHQ’s (a 70’s phenomenon). Five star rating, great measurables, looks awesome coming off the bus.  If he could finally arrive this DL could be special.  As it is,  there are no more than five collegiate defensive lines that start four players as good as the Irish foursome.

The second line should be Isaac Rochell, Jay Hayes, Daniel Cage and Andrew Trumbetti. The Fighting Irish defense would NOT be in jail if these four were the starters.  Rochell is an Oak. He is not a deft pass rusher, but when it comes to the run game, they shall not pass Isaac.  As the year went on it was harder to remember that Trumbetti was a frosh. Cage started fast, but slowed down.  He needs serious fitness and Longo work, but he is remarkably quick for his size.  Hayes will benefit from the snaps he received. His New York high school football background must be overcome.  But this is a serious second unit.

The third string would feature Grant Blankenship and Jhonny Williams at DE, Jake Matuska and Jonathan Bonner at DT. It is conceivable, that while Bonner and Hayes are currently tackles, they could move to end. Blankenship was competent as a frosh, with 12 tackles and a sack. Matuska is probably a career second or third stringer but competently so.  Williams and Bonner received special mention from Kelly in the pre-bowl practices all while maintaining their redshirts.

Have we forgotten anyone?  Well there’s the massive Peter Mokwuah, who received special mention from
Kelly last summer.  He need plenty of fitness and Longo time.  Then there’s pass-rushing specialist Kolin Hill, who may not be far from being a capable two way player.

That’s fourteen bodies.  14!  Suddenly, there is depth.  And it looks like the five man freshman DL class,  Jerry Tillery, Micah Drew-Treadway, Elijah Taylor, Brandon Tiassum and Bo Wallace should all be able to redshirt.  This unit, in two recruiting classes, has become very close to developing a pipeline commensurate with that now in place on the OL.

Two concerns remain.

Will VanGorder play the depth? Occasionally there is too much focus on “increasing the volume” for Jones and Day.  Bill Walsh maintained that the secret to success in modern football is maintaining a pass rush in the fourth quarter. To do that, players must be rested and fresh.  Learn by observing the Seahawks. They play their depth early and are daunting in the fourth quarter.

Second, whence cometh the pass pressure?  We would love to have JaDeveon Clowney, but it may be pass  rush by committee and by scheme. Jhonny Williams and Kolin Hill may develop into impact pass rushers.  But, frankly, most college teams do not have a “feature” pass rushing specialist. This should be one of the top five DLS in America.

LINEBACKERS 

Last August this area was a federal declaration shy of being a disaster area.  But Smith settled in, Schmidt learned the defensive calls and wildly exceeded expectations, and James Onwualu nosed out John Turner.

November notwithstanding, this linebacking crew was part of an unbeaten 6-0 start.

Middle linebacker is now intriguing.  Kelly, a student of political science, is consistent in his messaging about Nyles Morgan, mentioning him in the same sentence as Luke Kuechly and Manti Teo.  Kelly thinks that Nyles Morgan can be special. Befuddled or not, Morgan finished as the seventh leading tackler. Joe Schmidt was the surprise of the season before his knee injury ended his season and the good performance of the Notre Dame defense.  If healthy,  Schmidt splitting time with Morgan is not a bad option.  Onwualu is fine outside, at last. Suddenly, Jarrett Grace seems to have recovered,  and he might, perhaps, be able to play by next September.  Michael Deeb has not broken out and he now enters his third year. Tevon Coney shows up in January, but he would benefit by a redshirt. While he does not have great range, he is a sure tackler. This middle unit has come a long distance since last Spring.

Jaylon Smith is a returning 2d team AP All-American. He is the most athletic linebacker to ever play at Notre Dame.  With a strong defensive line in front of him, and Luke and Russell behind him, Smith is poised to cement his legacy in what may well be his final year under the Golden Dome. Greer Martini, though overmatched when he started against USC at Mike, showed surprising athleticism for his height.  Doug Randolph, like classmate Deeb, has not yet emerged and he is entering his third year. If Josh Barajas is deemed the heir apparent to Jaylon Smith, then he may doff the redshirt and play this year but more for 2016 reasons than for 2015 necessity.

While John Turner appeared to have the OLB role sewn up in the Spring, James Onwualu made a late rush in  pre-Fall and won the starting job.  The wondrously athletic Onwualu was tentative early, but began to catch on in November. James had his best game in the Music City Bowl.  Look for James Onwualu to contend for the prize as the most improved Irish defensive player in 2015.

It appears Asmar Bilal would be the third  stringer, but this is the position that is replaced by a nickel so depth is not important here. Bilal may be able to redshirt.

He got high marks for pass coverage ability in the post-season, a nice trait for the OLB position.

Six players who have started at LB return: Smith, Grace, Onwualu, Schmidt, Martini and Morgan.  This corps is probably just outside the top ten in  the nation, but is now solid, experienced and deep, and no longer a liability.  Each of the three positions should be considerably stronger than when 2014 began.

CORNERBACKS 

KeiVarae Russell returns!  This area may see the  biggest improvement of any position on the 2015 Notre Dame defense. Russell was on the brink of being an early departure for the NFL after his breakthrough season in 2013.  He was the fifth leading tackler with 51 tackles, had one interception and broke up a  team high 8 passes, more than the next two finishers COMBINED.

KeiVarae was the most enthusiastic Irish defender about the Van Gorder Defensive scheme and aggressiveness (risk/reward) changes.  He was about to  be turned loose to use his aggression and his athleticism.

He has come a long way from drawing interference penalties against Robert Woods in the Coliseum in ’12.  The Walter site has Russell as a first round draft choice in its 2016 Mock Draft.

Russell’s return is a twofer as it makes the estimable Cole Luke  the second cornerback.  At the starting positions, there will not be five better cornerback tandems in America.

Depth gets trickier.  Devin Butler did not expand on his freshman performance as robustly as Luke did.  Nick Watkins  came in at 6’0″ 194 pounds, profile size.  He should easily be over 200 by the time he gets on the field against Texas.  Matthias Farley, 2014’s most improved defensive player, is valuable as a nickel back.  The freshmen would normally redshirt, but Shaun Crawford may be just too impactful to be a redshirt.  Further, Crawford may be in the conversation as a kick returner.

The Irish have an unusual schedule, in that we don’t face a lot of great receiving corps.  But we do face one transcendent one: USC.  While Agholor departs for the draft, Juju Smith is the latest successor to Woods, Lee and Agholor.  George Farmer may finally be getting healthy. Darreus Rogers and  Ajene Harris are both burners, and Adoree Jackson, while he has a full time job developing as the next Patrick Peterson, is dangerous in spots (q.v. Adoree’s wheel route against Greer Martini).  Sneaky Sarkisian is adding two JCS from California, both 6’4″, so he is pouring more gasoline on the fire of his already nation’s best wide receiver corps.

For the  future, Note Dame will need four competent cover corners, so Cornerback recruiting is a big point of emphasis for 2016 and 2017.  We are some distance from having a pipeline. Nick Coleman and Ashton White will be expected to redshirt.

Safety

In early Winter, this looks like the potential Achilles Heel of the 2015 defense.  Conversely, the Irish have never had three safeties with the size, speed and athleticism of Redfield, Shumate and Tranquill.

Redfield is intriguing. If you were not aware that he is a five star, it would be difficult to deduce from his performance that he is a five star. He had a November slump beginning with a woeful effort against Arizona State, although he did recover to be the leading tackler against LSU. If Van Gorder and Cooks can bring Redfield CLOSE to his potential, the possible Achilles Heel could be very strong. Shumate is a solid tackler, but has not expanded upon the coverage skills he showed as a frosh. Elijah did finish as the third leading tackler. Since his freshman year he has seemed unsettled. If he can stabilize and be either the second or third safety he could have a rousing, albeit steady, senior season to finish his career.

Drue Tranquill was the most pleasant surprise of the frosh class. He even performed capably, albeit with Frosh foibles, when thrust, prematurely but necessarily, into the starting lineup. Comparisons are invidious, but he does evoke memories of Harrison Smith. Already carrying 225 pounds at 6’ 1.5” Tranquill can hit worthy of his weight. And while he may not be as fast as Smith he is fast enough to be an outstanding safety. He plays without fear, and remember, this time a year ago he was lurking in the corridors of Carroll High School in Fort Wayne. With the able Baratti’s career over, and Eilar Hardy moving on for his fifth year, one of the frosh safeties will have to play. Most of the nickels and dimes will come from the cornerback cadre. Prentice McKinney is the best guess, and he may be able to be brought along slowly behind this intriguing troika of Redfield, Shumate and Tranquill.

Based on achievement heretofore, and occasionally exhibiting glitches, one would, in early winter, surmise that safety is the weakest link of the defense. But surprises (Joe Schmidt) happen, and if, somehow, this trio fulfills its potential it could skyrocket to the best unit on the defense

Were that to occur, this could be a top five defense. IF!

The 2014 defense started strong, allowing 19.5 ppg, 346 ypg and 103 rushing yards per game through the first seven.

The defensive yards per point was a glistening 18.05 through the first seven games. (for contrast, final four participants Bama, FSU, Oregon and that school from east of Indiana had defensive yards per point of 18.2, 15.2, 19.8 and 16.4, respectively. Note: a high defensive ypp is optimal. ) Oregon’s lofty rating is impacted by a turnover margin of +20. But then the Irish arrived at November and the Irish defense sunk to the bottom, with averages of _43 ppg

480 ypg, and 240 rushing yards per game with a dreadful 11.05 defensive yards per point. When glue guy Schmidt went down, the Irish, indeed became unglued. The injuries merely further diluted the mucilage.

It should be different this year, with the improved depth, maturity and experience.

One question remains: Is VanGorder’s system too complicated, too arcane for collegians to grasp and execute, given limited practice time. While the jury is still out, smart money is on Kelly and VanGorder having the correct scheme for a successful college defense. We’ll know by next November.

Teams that drive you crazy! Georgia Tech and Navy. While Georgia Tech has to replace a lot of its most dynamic ordnance, the Georgia Tech offense that played Georgia, FSU and Mississippi was one of the finest triple option offenses of all time. If it continues, it simply will not be shut down, having passed the test against two SEC defenses and the defending national champion. VanGorder’s job will be to force two punts and two field goals, and the offense will have to do the rest.

This defense can be spectacular, one of America’s best.

A lot of dues were paid in 2014 and sweat equity expended to install and teach the system. 2015 could be the season of defensive dividends. Go Irish!!