Notre Dame’s Early Schedule Casts Doubt

CJ Prosise - Notre Dame RB
Photo: RVR Photos-USA TODAY Sports

College football schedules are an inexact science to the least.  On paper, Notre Dame’s September schedule looked like a gauntlet when it was originally put together.  Texas, Virginia, Georgia Tech, and UMass all before the calendar reads October?  Who in the name of Kevin White put together such a difficult first month of the season?

Funny thing is though, by the time these games all game around, the Irish ended up waking up when September ended with a perfect record without facing a single team that escaped the month with fewer than two losses.   Even Georgia Tech, a game circled by many, including me, as likely Notre Dame’s toughest of the season over the summer looks like they are not nearly as good as everyone thought they would be after suffering back to back losses to the Irish and Blue Devils.  Yes, those Blue Devils and no, we’re not talking about basketball.

When the Texas game was originally scheduled, Mack Brown was still running the Longhorn program and Texas was still considered an elite team.  Year of the Charlie Strong rebuilding project, however, has the Longhorns looking like a shell of their former selves – a state Notre Dame fans can relate to all too well.  Texas limped out of September 1-3 after suffering a one point loss to Cal and a three point defeat at the hands of the referee-aided Cowboys of Oklahoma State.  Now, had the Longhorns gotten by Oklahoma State and Cal and entered this weekend 3-1, well then that 38-3 thumping the Irish handed them in week one would look a whole lot better.

Virginia, despite playing the Irish tough, haven’t played many other opponents that tough.  After squeaking by William and Mary following their near upset of the Irish, the Cavaliers had their doors blown off by Boise State to the tune of 56-14.

For a while, it looked like Notre Dame was going to close out Georgia Tech with a resounding victory before the Yellow Jackets added two late touchdowns to make the score a much more respectable looking 30-22.  Combine Tech’s last minute surge and their subsequent let down the following week and the Irish victory doesn’t look nearly as impressive as we all thought it would with about 3:00 left on the clock two Saturdays ago.

So while the Irish have maneuvered through more major injuries than they could have sustained in any other year of the Brian Kelly era, questions still remain as to just how good this Irish team is.  A resounding 62-27 victory this past weekend over lowly UMass was just the kind of win that people have wanted to see out of a team with playoff hopes like Notre Dame, but at the end of the day, it was just UMass and Notre Dame’s most impressive win is still over a team that just lost to Duke.

The good news for the Irish, however, is that they will not need to wait long to see just how good they are.  This weekend’s visit to Clemson offers the toughest test of the season and one of the toughest road trips of the Kelly Era.  Death Valley is a tough place to play and even if the Tigers haven’t exactly been world beaters so far this year, they are 3-0 and will have had 17 days to prepare for Notre Dame’s visit.

Following Notre Dame’s trip to Death Valley the Irish host Navy in their yearly showdown with the Midshipmen only to welcome arch rival USC to town the following weekend.  Given Notre Dame’s mounting injuries and the well publicized “Navy hangover” the Irish seem to suffer most years the week after facing the Middies, everyone should know just how good these Irish are before midnight on October 17.

Escaping what at one time looked to be a daunting September that turned out to be not so much undefeated isn’t new for the Irish or Brian Kelly either.  In 2012, a September slate of Navy, Purdue, Michigan State on the road, and Michigan looked like another potential minefield.  That Spartans team turned out to not be nearly as good as their pre-season ranking, however, and Michigan’s 2012 season ended with an 8-5 records and a loss in the Outback Bowl.

That same October the Irish two top 10 ranked teams (at the time) in Stanford and Oklahoma to propel themselves on their run to the 2012 BCS Championship game.  Can the 2015 Fighting Irish, a team playing with a rash of injuries already, do the same and navigate a road game in a hostile environment and a home game against a highly ranked rival undefeated?  We’ll find out soon enough.

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24 Comments

  1. “Burgy,”

    I appreciate the sarcasm. It’s too easy to mock that “bias-against-ND-card.” But you certainly are not so besotted as to really opine that there is NO anti-ND bias? There was, is, and always will be a strong anti-ND bias in the media and NCAA. Whether or not that offsets the what I believe is also sizable pro-ND bias I can’t say. But let’s not bury our collective heads in the sand and dismiss “Mike T’s” and “45yearfaithful’s” over-arching points.

    Stay classy, “Burgy”!

  2. 45y

    You’re right the money might be a factor in a close decision, but you cannot discount the jealousy and downright hatred of Notre Dame by many prominent coaches and Athletic Directors. Many of them just looking for an excuse to stick it to the Irish. A loss gives them all the reasoning they need.
    I’m sure Brian Kelly and the team consider the season a bust if they don’t make the playoffs. If they run the table the rest of their schedule with some dominate wins over USC and Stanford, they may be back in the mix..but even then I’m not so sure they can overcome the bias against them. It will be fun to watch though.

  3. Mark. I would contend this is the year with only a third of the season played most possible. Good chance Pac 12, SEC, even ACC champ could have 2 losses. Who knows about Big 10. Baylor , TCU , or Oklahoma will have least one. With suspect “D”s. Way to early. It’s one reason why CFB is so entertaining. Lest not forget how controversial and well ND travels. $$$$$$. This is big buisiness. At this point just to many scenarios. If not oh well. Thanks.

  4. Only commented it is possible and harder. CFB always plays out wacky. Especially at the end of season. You state one more loss. Makes it 10-2. Even 9-3 is an improvement. So be it. There could be scenarios played out for the possibility at one loss. Yes, this ACC loss didn’t help. I just appreciate the improvement of the program and CFB entertainment. It’s not the “be all end all”. Thanks.

  5. 45yearfaithful…. You are delusional if you thing that a one loss ND team gets into the playoffs, this or any other year. Because of no conference championship game, they are done with CFP. Yes I agree that the CFP will not stay at 4 teams, but this year it is, so therefore, good bye playoff hopes for this year. I also think they lose to either Stanford or USC. 9-3 is that a successful season to you, because to me, it is a nice season, and nice gets you jack and shit. Thanks for coming, here’s to playing out the string.

  6. Speaking objectively, those two play calls were not the reason for their loss. A myriad of factors contributed. Their not quitting speaks volumes to me. Count me as a “Purist”. I see to many reasons not join a conference, as opposed to the establishment wanting them to. I think a one loss ND team can make it. Yes it makes it harder. I am also of the belief the CFP is not going to stay at four schools. Thanks.

  7. Duranko you’re right about the early two point conversion..If they make the early one Kelly is a great tactician. Unfortunately they missed it and he becomes the bumbler.

    Here’s a fact about football we all seem to forget sometimes(even myself). You win as a team and you lose as a team. If Chris Brown doesn’t fumble the irish may have won by a touchdown. If the defense doesn’t spot Clemson 14 points in the first 8 to 10 minutes, The Irish probably win.

    I know the purists that want ND to remain independent in football will scoff at this but if they did belong to a conference this loss may not be as serious as they’d still have a conference championship to use for reasoning to get in the playoffs.

    The NCAA establishment wants the Irish to submit and join a conference and I believe as long as they don’t they will have to run the table during the regular season or they will always be left out. I’m not saying they should join a conference either, but they should realize and play with the intensity needed, knowing just one loss will be the nail in their coffin each season as far as the playoff committee is concerned.

  8. couple of things.

    First, note Joe Schmidt’s comments in the tunnel after the loss. Compare and contrast with Tebow’s comments after the loss to Mississippi in 2008. Note what Florida accomplished afterward.

    Nick Saban and Pete Carroll. Even when they had a great rushing attack they were not afraid to open the game with an onslaught of passes to make the defense back off and respect the receivers. This would generally lead to a smaller group in the box and bigger lanes. It’s not a bad way to go. Pass heavy the first quarter, run heavy the last three. I know, it’s not macho.

    there is a saying in the law that unconsciounability is determined at the time of the execution of the contract, not with the benefit of hindsight.

    This whole thing with two point conversions and “the chart” is similar. The leader must scan both the battlefield and the scoreboard at the time of the decision. Kelly’s decision to go for two early can not, OBJECTIVELY and WITHOUT EQUIVOCATION, be declared to be wrong. Conversely, Kelly’s decision to go for two early can not OBJECTIVELY and WITHOUT EQUIVOCATION, be declared to be right.

    A decision made before the game may have been more impactful, when viewed with the irrefutable wisdom of hindsight. the decision to defer. It went wrong both in the first and in the second halves. oh, well, It is an uncertain world.

    Coaches know this, internet critics live in denial of it.

  9. Notre Dame was out coached on the sidelines and outplayed on the field. Was surprised that the O-Line got pushed around so easily. Overall, Clemson is a better team. Still, the Irish showed a lot of character. They never quit under the most trying of circumstances. A lot of teams would have folded in that weather in Death Valley. I think the Irish can accomplish a great deal this year, despite losing some key players to injury. I hope they learn from this and prepare for every game the same way they did for LSU last season.

    All Irish All of the Time!

  10. To bad. This game went sour due to many aspects. Coaching and players. Neither executed or managed well tonight. Clemson was more physical and earned the win. Liked the way they came back although Clemson changed to a “Vanilla” strategy. That Irish luck didn’t show itself either. Just hoping Kelly doesn’t pass the buck and put blame elsewhere. IMHO I think he has a tendency for that. Their still capable and this is CFB, where everything can and does happen. I still have faith in the program. Just one loss. Thanks.

  11. “An American monkey, after drunk on brandy, would never touch it again., and thus is much wiser than most men.”
    Charles Darwin

  12. Hard to win when you turn the ball over that many times..can’t be the rain, Clemson seemed to be able to hold on to it. Those short passes were open most of the night, yet it seemed like they waited til the fourth quarter to finally take advantage..Sometimes you have to use the pass to develop your run..I wonder if all three Offensive coaches agreed with the run on first down philosophy even when the defense lines up 8 men in the box.

    “it is not the most intellectual of the species that survives; it is not the strongest that survives; but the species that survives is the one that is able best to adapt and adjust to the changing environment in which it finds itself.” Darwin(maybe)

  13. Too many dropped passes. Too many fumbles. Should have gone for one point , instead of two.Game would have been tied. Here comes navy, and how more injuries can ND afford. Looks like last year all over again

  14. Agreed Jeff! He did indeed shit the bed. That game should have went into OT. Let Yoon kick the ball. Take the point and wait until you have to go for two. I still like Kelly but the smell in the bedroom won’t go away quick enough…

  15. Disappointing loss to say the least. Better regroup and not have a repeat slide like last year after the FSU game. Definitely was a game that could have been won but it wasn’t. I will say that there might have been some over optimism by fans (I include myself) about where this team was at but I give credit where credit is due, Clemson played better to win the damn game.

    Time to prepare for the next game.

  16. lol, 45. I catch your drift. ND on a team’s schedule is, as you allude to, as relevant as ever. For those who doubt it, ND is so irrelevant that Clemson took 16 days off to prepare for them. And who do teams schedule to play after they play ND? TX-Rice, VA- Bill & Mary, UMass- FIU; GT scheduled Duke and didn’t hardly have any juice left to show up, then got whooped on. Looking ahead to future opponents’ schedules: Navy- then they scheduled their bye week next, as did BC, Temple- SMU, with Pitt having two extra days to prepare before ND. Their ADs didn’t get the memo about ND’s irrelevance, either!
    ND still relevant? Ask NBC and ShowTime.

    So can we at least agree before the game begins that a ND victory at Clemson is an elite win; or will it be pointed out after that game that the only decent team Clemson beat was Louisville, and they’re not that good either. Then if ND beats Navy and USC, will it be written that SC did get blown out by Stanford, who lost to NW? We can play that same tune all year, and it’s already getting old.

    I’m not sure how telling a victory will be this week in the marshy swamp that will be Death Valley.
    But I’ll take it, despite what Clemson does the following weeks.

  17. Seems to happen every year now. ND’s SOS is always high when season starts. Then lower when season ends. Teams they need to keep winning, sink. Reguardless if ND won or lost to said teams. I guess it’s the nature of college ball. One reason I prefer it. Just have to wonder if has something to do with mental letdowns when ND is on their schedule. But that doesn’t wash. Because these days ND is and has been irrelevent. Or so I’ve read. Thanks

  18. ND is a top tier team. Excuses are like )()() everyone’s got one. I’m not sure at this point the Notre Dames not the best team in the USA. ND made GT look bad. Bobby Gaston(SEC top recognizeded referee / former GT football squad athlete under Bobby Dodd) likely instructed GT to lose intentionally to weaken ND’s confidence & ranking. The Confederates realized what Notre Dame can do when fully mobilized! I know him and his feelings toward ND!

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