Breaking Down Notre Dame’s Playoff Hopes

For only the third time in the past 13 years, Notre Dame exited the month of September unbeaten. Each of the past two seasons, the Irish suffered its first loss of the season in the month of October, both coming on the road to top ACC schools.

It’s a frustrating position to be in, but Notre Dame football no longer controls its own destiny. For the rest of the season, the Irish faithful must keep one eye on the team and one eye on the weekly Top 25 scoreboard.

Generally speaking…

The Notre Dame football team now has no margin for error. They must win every football game and for the most part, do so impressively. We are in an era where pressure to join a conference exists and a “13^th game” is a buzz phrase supporting opponents of Notre Dame’s playoff merits. The Fighting Irish making the playoffs as undefeated but not a conference champion would have brought enough controversy. The justification as a one-loss team becomes even more difficult.

The Irish have shown they can dominate games and that helps. With dominating wins over Texas, Georgia Tech and Massachusetts, the Irish would need to continue those types of impressive wins over Navy, Temple, Pitt, Wake Forest and BC. A little more help and consistency from the defensive side of the ball would make this job a little easier. Already on thin ice, the Irish may be able to survive another close game against an inferior opponent like they had against Virginia. But with a one-loss team, it’s important to remember, appearances matter.

Beating USC and Stanford and perhaps more importantly, controlling those games is key to Notre Dame’s playoff hopes. Let’s think back to last week. The Irish had a chance to win and almost pulled out extending that game. If they in fact did win the game, we all would have felt pretty lucky the way the game unfolded. In no way did the Irish control the game. ND cannot just win a game and have it appear lucky. They need to be in control, starting fast, dominating the lines of scrimmage, getting an early lead and keeping it.

The playoff committee has shown the ability to forgive an early season loss with a team that rebounds the rest of the season. Clearly, Notre Dame’s loss to Clemson is much better that Ohio State’s last year to Virginia Tech. It’s now ND’s job to take care of business and hope everything else falls into place.

The big picture…

The Irish will be fighting for one of four playoff spots with the conference champions of the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, Pac-12 & SEC. Excluding Notre Dame, there stand five conference champions for four spots.

A 12-game season

• Notre Dame will play 12 regular season games this year. Critics of Notre Dame making the playoffs will tell you playing only 12 games puts them on uneven footing against teams who “had to play 13” games. Leaving the strength of schedule argument aside and who that 13^th game is often against, we’ll see the Irish aren’t the only ones playing 12 games this year.
• The Big 12 doesn’t play a conference championship, so the winner of that league will only have played the same number of games as the Irish.
• LSU’s first game of the season against McNeese State was cancelled due to weather and will not be made up. So if the Tigers were to win the SEC (or lose in the title game), they too will only have played 12 games. If they don’t make the title game but are hoping for an at-large bid to the playoffs, they will be doing so with an 11-game resume.

Notre Dame – Conference Champion

The Irish had three chances this year to be a de facto conference champion.  Now only one remains – and the Irish need to beat USC and Stanford.

• Beating eventual Big 12 champion Texas. The Irish took care of business here, and not that anyone thought this was even possible this year, but Texas has a long way to go before ascending to the top of the Big 12 again.
• Beating Georgia Tech & Clemson (and the other ACC teams on the schedule). Most pundits had these two teams coming out of the Coastal and Atlantic divisions to battle for ACC Champions. Although Clemson is still in the hunt, Tech has two conference losses and no longer controls the Coastal.
• Beating USC and Stanford. Both teams were great shape in the Pac-12 South & North before USC’s loss last night. Utah has looked good this year, but I’m not sure they can maintain with five tough conference games remaining (vs. Cal, ASU, @USC, @ Arizona, vs. UCLA). Even with Utah’s early success, I still think the winner of the Pac-12 comes from Palo Alto or South Central Los Angeles. It’s still disappointing that Stanford lost their opener against Northwestern as it would help ND’s resume later in the season should the Irish prevail Thanksgiving weekend.

Should the Irish beat USC and Stanford and one of those becomes the eventual Pac-12 champion, then it should end any hope for the Pac-12 to make the playoffs over a one-loss Notre Dame team.

What do we want from Clemson?

I felt this way after the game, and I heard it echoed in the media this week, but if the Irish were to line up against Clemson 10 times, I’m confident the Irish would beat Clemson 8 out of 10. That does us no good with where we sit today, but what the Tigers do the rest of the season is important to ND’s future. I can see arguments from both sides, but here are a few options…

• Clemson wins out and is the ACC Champion earning a spot in the college football playoff. Notre Dame would have to earn a playoff spot over the other conferences amid the committee considering a potential rematch between the Irish and Tigers. I’m not sure this is likely.
• Clemson loses once (in the ACC Championship) to a one-or-more loss Coastal team.
• Clemson loses one-or-more and doesn’t represent the Atlantic in the ACC Championship Game.

This week’s games

Given the above considerations, let’s take a look at this weekend’s schedule for teams ranked ahead of Notre Dame and how the results might improve their playoff chances.

Thursday, Oct 8

• Washington @ #17 USC
  It would have been in Notre Dame’s best interest if USC won the rest of their games (except for the one on October 17^th), but the Trojans were tripped up last night by Washington.  Notre Dame needs to beat USC next week and hope the Trojans win out and end the season 9-3.

Saturday, October 10

• South Carolina @ #7 LSU
  I’m pulling for LSU to lose here, although the Irish may indeed want LSU to win the SEC given the McNeese State game being cancelled and the other SEC teams it would eliminate from playoff contention. Bottom line is there are plenty of options here if LSU were to win or lose.

• #3 Baylor @ Kansas
  I count four chances to lose on Baylor’s upcoming schedule, but this week isn’t one of them.

• #10 Oklahoma @ Texas
  I think Oklahoma wins here but Bob Stoops has one or two of those games every year where he loses a game he has no business losing. Texas lost a close one last year, but they’re a mess in Austin right now and I just don’t think we get any help here.

• Maryland @ #1 Ohio State
  Ohio State rolls.

• #13 Northwestern @ #18 Michigan
  This is interesting because the Wildcats’ schedule the rest of the year is not difficult. So this might be their best chance to lose before matching up with someone in the Big Ten title game. On the other hand, continuing to win makes Stanford’s loss to Northwestern look a little better and gives Notre Dame just a little better quality win should the Irish beat Stanford. I think it’s too early in the season to have a definitive outcome on this game. But I’m going to guess that we want Northwestern winning here.

• Georgia Tech @ #6 Clemson
  I think a Georgia Tech win here gives Notre Dame the best chance to help their resume and make the playoffs. The Irish dominated Tech and lose by two in awful conditions against Clemson. Clemson getting the ACC spot in the playoffs hurts ND more than Clemson losing a game or two and missing the cut. If the Tigers are to lose, this is the game it needs to happen.

• Arkansas @ #8 Alabama
  It would really, really help it if the eventual SEC Champion had two losses. C’mon Hogs.
  

• #2 TCU @ Kansas Sate
  Kansas State’s defensive linemen are volunteering to play quarterback. I don’t think TCU is losing this week.

• #11 Florida @ Missouri
  Missouri has a decent shot to hand the Gators their first loss.

• Miami @ #12 Florida State
  Miami faithful don’t like Al Golden. But they would warm up to him quickly if they can derail the 4-0 Seminoles. I’m certain Everett Golson is more than capable of aiding them with 3 fumbles and 2 picks.

• #4 Michigan State @ Rutgers
  The Spartans haven’t looked great this year, and they’ll lose eventually. Just don’t think it will happen this week.

• #23 California @ #5 Utah
  Now Utah is getting a lot of attention. As the hype builds, so does the pressure. When will it come crashing down?