The Irish moved up three spots to #11 after last weekend’s affairs. It was a wild weekend headlines by the battle in the state of Michigan. After their losses to top 10 foes, Florida, Texas A&M and Michigan all dropped below the Irish.  Stanford jumped Notre Dame in the polls after routing UCLA, but Ole Miss was shocked by Memphis and the Rebels tumbled to #24. So the Irish net gain was three positions.
One quick housekeeping note: We have been using the AP Poll for this series of articles examining Notre Dame’s playoff hopes. We will continue to use the AP Poll for this series, but the Irish (#10) did crack the Top 10 in this week’s Coaches Poll.
As a reminder, we’ll only look at teams ahead of Notre Dame in the polls.
Review of last week:
- #18 UCLA routed by #15 Stanford 56-35
- #1 Ohio State beat Penn State 49-28
- #2 Baylor cruises over West Virginia 62-38
- #3 TCU rolls Iowa State 45-21
- #4 Utah State over Arizona State 34-18
- #5 Clemson over Boston College 34-17
- #6 LSU escapes #8 Florida 35-28
- #7 Michigan State shocks #12 Michigan 27-23
- #9 Texas A&M falls to #10 Alabama 41-23
- #11 Florida State powers Louisville 41-21
- #13 Ole Miss stunned by Memphis 37-24
The results of last weekend surely knocked Michigan & Ole Miss out of playoff contention given the premise that the four teams will be undefeated or have at most one loss. But is also provides a window opportunity for Notre Dame in the playoff scenario.
Given the “Power Five” conferences and only four spots in the playoffs, for Notre Dame to get in, in theory, two conferences would be left out. The absolute best opportunity that currently exists is for Stanford to lose to Notre Dame, but go on to win the Pac-12 Championship. That eliminates the Pac-12 from the playoff. But let’s take a look at two other opportunities given the results from the two most shocking results from last Saturday.
What though the odds be great or small
Michigan could still win the Big Ten.
With losses to Utah and Michigan State, Michigan is out of playoff contention, but could still win the Big Ten. First, they need to win out, including knocking off Ohio State in Ann Arbor in the regular season finale. Additionally, Michigan State would need to lose twice with one of those losses coming to the Buckeyes. This is the tough one, because the Spartans don’t appear to have any losses remaining on their schedule other than the Buckeyes. Then, Michigan would need to beat an undefeated Iowa or lose to a one-loss Iowa (who wouldn’t get a playoff nod with a blemish) in the conference championship.
Ole Miss could still win the SEC.
With two overall losses (but only one in conference), Ole Miss is out of the playoff picture but can still win the SEC. Their one conference loss came to Florida who is in the East. The Rebels could win the West by beating LSU in their regular season matchup and would own a tiebreaker over Alabama and Texas A&M.
Summary
If one of the above scenarios were to happen coupled with a Pac-12 Champion Stanford; or if both of the above scenarios were to happen (with unbeaten Utah winning the Pac-12), then a one-loss Notre Dame is in prime position to earn a playoff spot.
The Other Players
The ACC
At this point, it’s unlikely that Clemson loses twice (and Florida State also loses to someone other than Clemson), so I think it’s in the Irish’s best interest if Clemson beats Florida State and wins the ACC (or loses to a two-loss Coastal representative).
The Big 12
Perhaps the one conference most ready to send a representative to the playoffs, the Big 12 still has three unbeaten teams. And don’t sleep on a very strong Oklahoma team who won’t be able to recover from the Texas loss (their only one) to make the playoffs, but could still win the conference by winning out.
The Pac-12
The Pac-12’s playoff hopes ride on Stanford with only one loss or unbeaten Utah. The Utes still have a pretty tough remaining schedule. And the Irish control their own destiny with Stanford.
This week’s games
Saturday, October 24
- #6 Clemson @ Miami – I think it’s in Notre Dame’s best interest to hope for a rematch against Clemson in the playoffs. Otherwise, if Clemson were to lose here, then they would need to beat Florida State, and lose a second game somewhere down the line.
- Iowa State @ #2 Baylor –Â If you want to see some prolific offense, tune in and watch Baylor set records.
- Indiana @ #7 Michigan State –Â The Hoosiers started 4-0 and have dropped their last three. Michigan State should easily take care of business here.
- Tennessee @ #8 Alabama  – The scariest part for all playoff hopefuls is the Tide is really starting to get rolling. The Vols are way overmatched.
- Western Kentucky @ #5 LSU –Â A tune-up as LSU prepares for their final four games (Alabama, Arkansas, Ole Miss, A&M). Should LSU win the SEC, their 12-game schedule should be used as ammunition for Notre Dame against all people who criticize the Irish for not playing a 13th game.
- #9 Florida State @ Georgia Tech –Â The Yellow Jackets are the most disappointing team in the nation. Redeem yourselves.
- #3 Utah @ USC – Do we say “Fight On” here and hope the Utes fall to Washington, Arizona or UCLA? I would prefer the latter, but I think the Trojans get it done Saturday.
- #1 Ohio State @ Rutgers –Â This is the part of the season where the Buckeyes start to get it going, and it certainly looked the part last Saturday against Penn State.Â
- Washington @ #10 Stanford – One of the best things for ND right now is all the hype Stanford is getting after last week’s performance against UCLA. Some are claiming Stanford might be the best one-loss team (alongside Alabama). This is good for ND because it makes the battle and eventual Irish win on Thanksgiving weekend look that much better. Stanford QB Kevin Hogan is still hobbled by a severe ankle sprain he suffered against Southern Cal. He’s lost some mobility, but this is also sharpening his pocket skills and decision-making.
Enjoy the bye weekend Irish fans.
it looks like this part of the schedule that was suppose to be the easy part is going to be the hard part. temple is 7-0, pitt is 6-1 and Stanford is playing as good as anybody. if nd can win out they stand as good a chance as anybody of making the playoff.
Notre Dame still plays 3 ranked teams! Give me a break on easy schedule. Take a look at the big 10 if you want to see one. Win out and they deserve a playoff spot.
Notre Dame is still in the hunt to make the playoffs. At the very least a major bowl game on Jan 1st. Just win out.
That SOS happens every year to ND. What’s changed this year is 3 of the next 5 are now ranked. Luckily Temple, B.C. & Pitt have top rated “D”‘s. Than finish with Stanford who is still in the hunt. That fortunately fell into ND’s favor. Unlike past years. So you get somewhat of a replacement. Then again we can all be bummed out and have the attitude of “It will NEVER WOOORRRK”. Not enjoy the rest of season. ND won’t play to win now. Hell, they shouldn’t even show up for the games. Why bother? Screw it. I’m not watching another game. Jesus Christ. Thanks.
Thank you Tony Robbins
ND is not going to the playoffs. with at least one loss already, no chance of winning a conference and no membership in a conference it will never happen. The people with power want a specific formula and until they get what they want they will use any excuse to punish those that refuse to submit. That loss to Clemson was it. What began as a strong strength of schedule has turned out to be the opposite.
Hope is not a plan of action.
Just beat Temple,one game at a time,you guys can win it all ,Please one game at a time .God Bless you guy,s From Notre Dame,go getem.
This team seems to have a certain chemistry that should help. However, they have to quit giving up
leads in short periods of time. Defense has to improve.
One of those ‘if one beats the other and then they lose to them who then could beat the other team’ posts that goes beyond my limited comprehension, and means little with nearly a half a season left.
Just beat Temple in Philadelphia first. The better team doesn’t always win every week, especially on the road, of which ND has to play four of the next five. Most past seasons ND drops one against a team who has no business winning, but this ND team has shown tremendous resilience and character, and rises to the occasion, even in the monsoon loss. But ND has not established themselves over the last two seasons as “road warriors!” I couldn’t care less about all the ‘ideal scenarios’ that result in ND making it to the final four- two games from the end of the 2012 season, few gave ND ANY chance of getting to the championship game.
Just get ready for Temple. Keep getting better, especially NDs D’!
It will be a challenge to win out- with four on the road, and worse yet, three (Pitt, BC, and Stanford) seem to always play well vs. ND, despite record or prior weeks’ games.
When ND comes to town, it’s the game each team often has had circled on their schedule long before that season even began. If that makes me sound like a homer or a rah-rah, so be it. Dabo nearly collapsed in ecstasy after Clemson escaped with their victory – after preaching ND was ‘just another tough game’ on their schedule.
Yah, right!