Projecting Notre Dame’s Week 12 Playoff Rankings

Photo: Matt Cashore // USA TODAY Sports
Photo: Matt Cashore // USA TODAY Sports

Last week Notre Dame moved up to 4th in the College Football Playoff Rankings on the heels os an impressive road win over Pitt in which the final score wasn’t indicative of how easy the win was.  A week later Notre Dame finds itself in the opposite scenario – the Irish beat a 3-6 opponent on home by 21 but didn’t put the game away until more than halfway through the 4th quarter.  So where does this leave the Irish this week?

First off, Notre Dame’s “ugly” 21 point win is certainly a nice change of pace from last year’s November results as the Irish limped to the end of the season.  So personally, I’ll take an ugly 21 point win over Wake Forest over an overtime loss to say Northwestern any day.

Ok, with that out of the way, Notre Dame didn’t exactly earn any style points this weekend.  That much can’t really be argued.  The good news is, no one else outside of Alabama did either among those teams who entered the weekend in the top 10 and it looks like Notre Dame’s position at #4 is safe for this week.

Top ranked Clemson beat previously 3-6 Syracuse by just 10, 37-27.  Third ranked Ohio State beat 5-4 Illinois with a similar final score as Notre Dame’s win over Wake, 28-3.  Unbeaten and 5th ranked Iowa beat 4-5 Minnesota by just 5.  Eighth ranked and unbeaten Oklahoma State got all it could handle from 3-6 Iowa State and if their beat down of TCU a week ago wasn’t enough to leapfrog Notre Dame how could a 3 point win over the Cyclones do it this week?

Four of the top 10 teams lost this weekend too.  Sixth ranked Baylor got taken down by Oklahoma (more on them later), #7 Stanford got upset by Oregon, #9 LSU lost to Arkansas, and #10 Utah fell to Arizona.

So of all of the other teams in the top 10 entering last weekend, the only team that could conceivably move ahead of Notre Dame this week is Oklahoma State and like I said, if their win over TCU didn’t get them ahead of Notre Dame, how could squeaking out a win over Iowa State?  As we’ve learned in the short history of the CFP Rankings, it is tough to predict what the committee will do, but basic logic would suggest that Notre Dame will remain ahead of Oklahoma State this week.

That brings us back to Oklahoma.  If any team will knock Notre Dame out of the coveted Top 4 spots this week, it would be the Sooners.  Oklahoma has been on a roll since their embarrassing loss to Texas.  Bob Stoops’ boys took beat previously unbeaten Baylor by 10 points on the road.  As impressive as that appears on paper though, remember, Baylor was playing just their second game with backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham – a true freshman.  Baylor’s only other game with Stidham was a squeaker against Kansas State.  The Wildcats lost their 6th in a row last weekend.

Add all that up and Notre Dame’s #4 ranking looks pretty safe for this week.  Next week, however, could be a different story with Oklahoma State and Oklahoma both having chances to make statements with wins over Top 10 foes.  Michigan State could pose a threat to the Irish as well if they knock off #2 Ohio State, but even if that happens, Notre Dame would likely stay ranked ahead of the Buckeyes.

One thing Notre Dame can do this weekend to enhance it’s resume is to win big.  Boston College comes into the Shamrock Series with a 3-7 record, but as we all know all too well that’s never stopped Boston College from playing the Irish tough.  A close win next week could more attention next week given the game will be played in Fenway Park and will get much more attention than it would normally with three games between top 10 opponents on the slate as well.

We’ll have our full weekend preview later this week with all the games that will impact Notre Dame’s playoff chances and will have a full analysis of this week’s rankings once they are released.

 

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13 Comments

  1. @ Fightinmad…I gotta say, (assuming we win out) IF Clemson does lose to UNC I believe we get a spot above them in the committee’s final ranking. First, losing late in the year weighs more heavily than a mid-season loss. Secondly, the committee’s ‘eyeballing’ our loss…what, 5 turnovers in a monsoon, #88’s TD dropped at the goal line, a 2 point conversion also through the hands of #88 and finally a just barely failed 2 pointer at game’s end… I’m gonna root against Clemson in that (UNC?) showdown. I’ll take my chances.

    Two things, just hope we don’t look past BC and we learn something from the film on how to stop McCaffery, the key to beating Stanford.

  2. 1. Alabama is in if they win out.
    2. Big 10 winner is in if it’s Iowa or OSU. Not so clear if MSU emerges.
    3. Clemson is in if it wins out. North Carolina beating Clemson is worst case scenario for ND.
    4. Notre Dame or Big 12 winner. Hmmmm. Undefeated OK State is in. A 1 loss Big 12 champ will be debated hard. Will committee leave them out 2 years in a row? How good really is the Big 12 though? I was impressed with Baylor. Not anymore. TCU is banged up. Oklahoma lost to a team ND manhandled like a jv squad. OK State is only undefeated team and looks the most beatable.

    The talking heads make me sick. All of them argue for and gloss over Alabama’s ridiculous loss to Ole Miss. They say it was a fluke. Well I see the ND Clemson loss as as much of a fluke. Playing in a freaking hurricane, 4 second half turnovers, fumble on the 1 yard line. Outgained Clemson by 200 yards. They say ND has no signature wins. #19 Navy, Temple, #22 USC? Who are Bama’s signature wins? A flailing #17 LSU team or #20 Wisconsin? A flailing and unranked Texas A&M or Tennessee?? Maybe it’s the FCS cupcake that EVERY SEC team plays this week that will earn a signature win. GTFOH. I’ve been impressed with the committee rankings thus far and I hope they continue to see through the muck.

  3. I would not count out North Carolina. They are a Hot team right now and could trip up Clemson. That would cause many committee members to drink heavily.

  4. Irish 9-1 , after BC game 10-1. That’s it the magic #10 wins in a season accomplished. Double figures baby. It’s an Ara and Lou type season. Let’s do 11 in Palo Alto—and just for kicks added onto a great season already—-Irish can create some blarney among Committee and get in Final Four. Go Irish.

  5. They should expand the playoffs to 8 teams. While there’ll still be a lot of quibbling over the 9,10,11 finishers, I think this will mitigate late season losses for very good teams who should stay in the play off picture (ie if # 1 team loses to #2 team, etc…)

  6. Like a fine wine….

    david
    September 14, 2015 at 9:29 am
    GT will quite likely be taking ND to the woodshed Saturday. If ND was to scored 40 points, they’d very likely still lose. GT is very, very solid.
    Have a Plan B for the second half on Saturday…..yard chores, other games, heavy drinking….

  7. I believe we did just enough against WF to merit a #4 from the committee this week. My guess…
    1st Ohio State, 2nd Clemson (still undefeated), 3rd Alabama (still the best team out there), 4th us,
    5th Iowa, 6th Oklahoma.

  8. I wasn’t worried about Oklahoma either but apparently they are leap frogging us in a lot of media outlets which I don’t understand. Outside of the Baylor win, their best win is against 6-4 Tennessee. Our common opponent being Texas which is their only loss. I don’t get the logic but that candle has been lit out there. That being said, Ok.St. must lose. That is the most important thing that has to happen for ND. Otherwise, ND is on the outside looking in for sure.

  9. Unfortunately, predicting or should I say trying to predict what the committee will do is near impossible with all the variables they have to deal with. I was surprised when they were voted 5 and even more surprised with the 4 rating. Not that I didn’t think they deserve it but with all the talk about a conference championship I figured that will bite them in the ass sooner or later. The one thing that they have in their favor is that they are the only team that gave Clemson a real scare and anyone that watched that game knows all to well that it could have been Notre Dames just as easily. What do I think about tomorrows ratings? I think that they could fall to 5 or 6. Not that I think they should but………….. Go Irish!

  10. Frank,

    Why are you worried about Oklahoma? Our common opponent here is Texas who ND destroyed and who Oklahoma lost to. I don’t think it is going to matter if Oklahoma beats Ok State. We are in front of them and the Texas game is what they have to compare the two teams.

    The only team at this point I am worried about is Oklahoma State. If they win out at 12-0, it would be an absolute disaster for the committee not putting in an undefeated Power 5 team over a 1 loss team even if ND and Alabama are better teams. Even though Alabama’s loss was much worse than ours, their wins have been much more impressive than ND’s which means we would be the 1 loss team to get the boot.

    Hopefully Ok State loses in these next two weeks and we won’t have to worry about it. We just need to keep on winning! Go Irish!

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