Two plays and four points. Two plays and four points are the difference between Notre Dame fans feeling complete elation and excitement, and feeling empty and full of heartache. A missed two point conversation at Clemson and made field goal by Stanford are what prevented a Notre Dame undefeated season and #1 ranking, and turned it into a 10-2 season that feels like a huge disappointment. Of course, that crushing feeling of a missed opportunity is indicative of where the program currently stands. The fact that Notre Dame never played in either of their two losses with anything close to their full roster, and was as close to winning as they were, illustrates just how good this team was. Which makes Saturday that much more painful.
A reasonable argument could be made that the Irish were the better team in both of their defeats this year to #1 Clemson and then #9 ranked Stanford. They outgained both teams by over 100 yards, averaged more yards per play, and were done in by hurricane like conditions against Clemson that resulted in four turnovers, and poor red-zone (RDZ) execution against Stanford. You’d like Notre Dame’s chances in a rematch with either team, especially on a neutral field, and in the case of Stanford, with referees that were looking for transgressions to be committed by both teams, not just the guys in the gold helmets.
The problem is, the issues that cost Notre Dame the game against Stanford are the same issues we’ve seen throughout the season, and they tell a story of a team that just wasn’t ready for playoff contention. Notre Dame was 1-4 in RDZ touchdown conversions against Stanford, and unfortunately, this was no fluke for the Fighting Irish offense in 2015. They leave the Stanford contest ranked 91st nationally in RDZ touchdown percentage at 56%, and in six of the 12 games this season they were at 50% or worse in the RDZ.
It’s more than frustrating that an offense as good as the one Notre Dame puts on the field every Saturday would be so poor at putting the ball in the end zone inside the 20. Especially one that runs the ball as well as the Irish do. Notre Dame finished the season 5th in the country in yards per carry at 5.76, an indication that they field one of the best offensive lines in the nation. Generally speaking, a team that can run the ball that well shouldn’t have such trouble in the RDZ, where running is the preferred method of end zone entry, given the shortening of the field. Conventional thinking is, because teams are so fearful of receiver Will Fuller beating them over the top for long scores, they need to keep safeties deep, which keeps them away from the line of scrimmage in run support. In the RDZ, the shortened field negates Fuller’s speed, which brings the safeties into play in the run game. The stats seem to back up this notion.
Notre Dame does it’s most damage in between their own 20 and the opponents 40, where they average 6.2 yards per carry. But, in between the opponent 40 and the opponent 20 that average dips to 4.3 a carry and in the RDZ it goes all the way down to 3.87 a carry. But, this does not tell the story of Notre Dame’s RDZ struggles, which appears to be more of a philosophical issue than an execution issue.
While Notre Dame is averaging just 3.87 yards per carry in the RDZ, that comes in at 3rd in the country behind Ohio State and North Carolina. Their RDZ rushing attempts registers at 75th nationally, and their 16 touchdowns are good (or not so good) for 67th. To complete the thought, Notre Dame is 38th in RDZ passing attempts, and 113th in RDZ completion percentage. If Notre Dame wants to be a better RDZ team in their bowl game and into the 2016 season, simply, they just need to run the ball more. They don’t need to get more formations or introduce all sorts of new personnel. Just run it more, because the formations and personnel they are using now work just fine, when they give it a chance.
It would be inaccurate to suggest Notre Dame lost this game because of their RDZ issues, however. Those issues aside, Notre Dame put 36 points on the board, which should be good enough to win against any team the Fighting Irish play. Where Notre Dame failed to score inside the 20, the defense failed to stop Stanford for most of the night, giving up big play after big play, which unfortunately was a theme throughout the season for Brian VanGorder’s unit. As the season wore on they proved time and time again that they were not a playoff caliber defensive unit.
Over the course of the year, the Notre Dame defense gave up 26 touchdown drives of 70 yards or more, which frankly, is incredible, and not in a good way. By contrast, the 2012 defense gave up one such touchdown drive. One.
It started at Virginia in the second game of the season, where Notre Dame gave up four touchdown drives that totaled 75, 75, 80 and 75 yards, to what would eventually be the nation’s 73rd ranked offense. It ended Saturday with all five of Stanford’s touchdown drives being 70 yards or more with the aforementioned big plays littered throughout.
The thing is, big plays and long drives were not a fluke, they were the norm for this Notre Dame defense. They gave up a play of 38 yards or more in every single game this year, and they are 84th in the nation in giving up plays of over 30 yards, with 28. To illustrate just how deep these defensive struggles ran, the Irish gave up 166 yards and two touchdowns–an 80 yard run, and a 9 play 86 yard touchdown drive–to the worst offense in college football in Boston College. The most alarming part of this is a lot of these plays are seemingly coming on busted assignments; receivers are running free in the secondary, backs are running untouched down the middle of the field with defenders no where near in position to make plays.
A lot has been made of Brian VanGorder’s defensive scheme and whether it is too complicated. That is a topic for someone better than me to tackle. I don’t know what they are trying to do or what they are coached to do. I’m sure if I sat down with Brian VanGorder he could chalk it all up for me and it would make perfect sense. The problem is, the players don’t get it. They clearly don’t get it, because we see these busted assignments every week. And these are veteran players who have played a lot of football at Notre Dame–Matthias Farley, Elijah Shumate, Max Redfield, Joe Schmidt–that are making these mistakes that are costing the team games. It’s either the scheme or the guys coaching the scheme, but whatever it is, it has to get better, and I don’t see how any fan can have a ton of confidence that it will. And consider this sobering thought: the guy who bailed out Notre Dame so many times this year, Jaylon Smith, will likely not be on the team next year, and the only guy who seemed to be able to make the calls, Joe Schmidt, will also not be on the team next year.
For all of it’s red zone troubles, Notre Dame was by in large playoff caliber in 2015. And problems in the red zone don’t automatically disqualify a team, especially when you factor in how many touchdowns Notre Dame created outside the red zone. It’s not as though this team was devoid of scoring; they averaged 35 points a game this year. Also, consider that Clemson and Alabama, ranked #1 and #2 in the CFP rankings, are actually ranked lower than Notre Dame in RDZ touchdown percentage. The difference is, of course, that those two teams are #7 and #2 in total defense respectively. Their RDZ issues are a mere nuisance. Notre Dame’s issues on that end were magnified by the fact that on Saturday they couldn’t stop Stanford and had shown that vulnerability multiple times throughout the year.
Brian VanGorder needs to either adapt his scheme to the talent he has or coach his scheme better than he has the last two years. He has shown so far an unwillingness to do the former and an inability to do the latter. If he can’t do it then Notre Dame will likely find themselves lamenting the same issues next season, an offense that wasn’t perfect enough to win and a talented defense that didn’t always know what it was doing.
MikeT,
“Some of the players he inherited are not the model player for his defense” is an excellent point. Bob Diaco’s defense was a 3-4 base defense, heavy on the bend but don’t break model, which was successful in 2012 obviously. BVG’s is a 4-3 base defense, heavy on the pressure the QB idea. It does take time to switch defenses like that and there are usually some growing pains until you get your recruits in place.
I do think 2 areas ND improved on defense, 1–we are better against the run. They did keep McCaffrey bottled up. That was a must or the score could have been a blowout for Stanford. 2–the defense against the triple option is markedly improved. I no longer have a near heart attack every time we play Navy. That can also help us defend some other option schemes.
So, IMHO, yes BVG has some work to do. Maybe he needs to simplify things a bit, that may be valid. Also, I think for OSU, he needs to make sure the secondary is ready. At the very least, they need to keep everything in front of them. But, I think firing him would be premature at this juncture. It’s his second year. I know it’s hard, but we need some patience. There’s no way a DC would ever come in day 1 and have instant success.
We have a defensive coordinator that has proven to be a good coach, he’s got head coaching experience at small schools, he’s coached on several college teams including stints at Georgia where his defense was in the top 10 in the nation. Once again his problems arise from the fact the defense is not as deep as the offense and to be honest his schemes are the same used by several teams in the NFL. They are more complicated. But since ND players are smarter than the average you’d hope they’d pick it up quicker. Some of the players he inherited are not the model player for his defense. The question is, did the defense improve this year over last? The answer is yes it did. Will it be better next year? With some of the injured players coming back and some of the new freshman plus others with a year of college under their belt, probably.
Next you have to ask who you are going to get? Brian Kelley has a long history with BVG and has success with him so I doubt he’s ready to cut him loose when the defense is actually improving. Most of the great defensive coordinators this year are on their way to head coaching jobs elsewhere..I imagine some of those teams will suffer now even with great players unless the new DC runs the same exact system.
Since the Buckeyes have lost their DC to Rutgers, it will probably be a distraction for him to try and serve two masters..He needs to get out and recruit for his new team plus try and get ready for ND. Doubt it will work but we’ll see Jan 1
i love nd footballl and when the failure to make it the best it can be is so apparent; it saddens me. i see a high scoring game 43-41. we should have had a better defensive coach by now.
Bruce Johnson,
This is a serious question. It is not rhetorical and I’m not being a smartass. Is there anything you enjoy about ND football? Do you enjoy watching the games, keeping up with the program, being a fan? My years of observations of your posts seem to suggest that ND football makes you miserable, no matter what.
Urban Meyer will make it clear? Hmmm I remember comments similar to that way back in 92 when people said the 9-3 Irish couldn’t beat the 10-1 Gators under Steve Spurrier. We all know how that turned out.
Definitely a good match-up but OSU didn’t play a tough schedule at all so I’m not sure how you’re so confident Urban Meyer is going to teach the Irish a lesson
No need to say anymore, urban Meyer will make it clear
First it wasn’t just TWO PLAYS. All the misfires in the red zone made it come down to those two plays. I’m not as convinced BVG needs to go. I think we need to give him a chance to recruit some defensive people that will fit with his system. Many of the players are from the last defensive coordinator, who had an entirely different philosophy.
I think one thing that’s evident is that the offense was able to weather injuries better than the defense.
ND should keep the coaches they have and just get better at recruiting the people that fit the systems they run. The program is in a really good spot. They need to work with the players on the need to finish. It appears to me that once they are ahead the defense seems to dial it down a notch or two as does the offense.
The red zone play wasn’t great this year for sure. However, this years offense was explosive & could score for any hard marker on the field at any time. Of course a higher percentage in the red zone is highly important.
I don’t what this team needs to do for the defense to arrive. Yesterday I watched the SEC & Big championship games. Talk about defense! Lord have mercy. These are tough, tough defenses. Championship defenses.
We can talk all day about the Irish playing for championships all day. The offense is there. However, our defense is no where close yet. Sparty & Bama play a very tough nosed game; brutal power football. A finesse defense just isn’t gonna get done against these caliber of teams.
Its easy to point out those two plays and say that they are the reason we are not 12-0. You have forgot what led up to those two plays and that’s poor defense and piss poor play in the redzone. Two plays will not make or break your season.
Heading into Stanford I was worried to death about their running game but our pass defense is what killed us. We made that kid look like Andrew Luck back there. No constant pass rush all year. Safety play was suspect all year. Constantly fooled on trick plays because players are thinking instead of reacting. Last but certainly not least is Joe Schmidt starting in the middle. Go back and watch Schmidt on that last passing play that set them up for that winning FG.Go back and watch him in that Clemson lost. He had no business starting this year.
I want to see what Sanford can do calling plays. Kelly needs to let him take over those duties before we lose him. Kelly is to pass happy!
ND will never be a title contender with BVG. I hope Kelly is back but if getting rid of BVG is having
Kelly leave so be it. Defense wins the big ones. I still think Kelly had a great year but I really hope
he lets him go.
It’s not working
Make a change
http://irish.nbcsports.com/2015/12/03/notre-dame-football-whats-wrong-with-the-defense/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=notre-dame-football
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000498479/article/wade-phillips-vic-fangio-among-top-10-defensive-coordinators
Yes, Barry Alvarez did have an apprentice. His name was Darth Maul.
He unfortunately was severed in two and will be unable to coordinate the defense next year.
http://m.bleacherreport.com/articles/2109144-the-15-best-defensive-coordinators-in-college-
How about will muschamp auburn? But they pay for talent. Three years for more than 5 million. Swarbrick is too cheap.
Or the guy that was paternos defensive coordinator for 20 years? Now at ucla I think. He won’t have a learning curve.
Sorry, too late. Did Barry Alvarez have any apprentices?
Got it, although I’m sure there is an NCAA rule prohibiting him from being the head coach at Georgia and the D Coordinator for ND. I’ll get back to you on that one.
Fire bvg
Run the ball in the red zone
Recruit Reggie brooks, Jerome Bettie’s type backs,
Hire the Bama densive coordinator, Kirby smart
I support all posters who feel strongly enough about this team to compose 1 to 4 paragraphs of heart felt prose regarding a topic within the realm of ND football regardless of whether or not i support it personally. An open forum to air pleasure or dis-pleasure about the team, individual players and coaches. I detest those ‘smug’ posers (intentional) who sit in wait for a juicy tidbit to pounce on in an ‘all-knowing’ comment. Two come to mind…Ron(king of the one-liners/somebody buy me another) Burgundy and Shaz (am-I-still-under-that) Rock. Smug #1 and Smug #2.
@ Damian…i agree, creepy. But then when you examine the source Ron (one liner) Burgundy, you realize, it’s his life, so cut him some slack.
Agreed
Man, that is just creepy–pulling out comments from years ago.
I can’t remember what I did yesterday, much less SIX years ago.
Not sure that is exactly what you said Jimbo.
Jimbo
December 11, 2009 at 1:47 am
If he can get to 3rd nationally with Cincinnati’s talent – just think what he can do with ND’s talent pool. Welcome, Coach Kelly!
Van Gorder just might be used as scapegoat for season and that has some validity to it. What gets me is Kelly is constantly preaching toughness and then it becomes a finesse passing game many times in the red zone. How about shoving the ball down the opponents throat and imposing your will on them? Let’s see if ND game win a major bowl game vs a big time opponent to finish 11-2. I said it then and I’ll say it now Kelly is not them man to bring ND back to the top.
Great article! Took the words right out of my mouth.
I don’t know how anyone can say that BVG isn’t a problem. The only thing to debate is whether or not he should be fired. I say yes but others disagree and besides, I don’t get a vote on that anyway.
Not having Joe Schmidt will force BVG to either coach up the more athletic ILBs or to find other more athletic players that could do the job. He used Joe Schmidt as a crutch because his perception that no one understood his defense and how to align the players like Joe Schmidt did.
If BVG comes back, this will be year 3. Giving up big plays has to be addressed and if that means scrapping his defense altogether, then so be it. He seemed to stress a big play style of defense. Well, his defenses have given up too many big plays and have made too few big plays. Maybe the “bend but don’t break philosophy” isn’t such a bad thing particularly when the defense is as athletic as this one is.
All in all, it was a good year. It could have been a great year, but it still was a good year.
GO IRISH!!!
The only way to get a 13th game Richard is to go to Hawaii.
Let’s be real. This team had no elite edge pass rusher, a glaring weakness at linebackers not name Jaylon, and undisciplined safeties. Speed/power rushing defensive ends are a must and ND hasn’t had a special one in a while (Why do I still think this was where Troy Niklas would have DOMINATED). Keivare came back and was obviously rusty as it took him 7 or 8 games to get back up to game speed. Teams didn’t do anything too fancy or special against ND. They ran their offense. A few team ran trick plays here or there because they knew the safeties would bite. I’m no fan of the BVG’s or Tenuta’s or any other scheme that heavily relies on blitzing the qb. These schemes leave the players stuck between being aggressive AND maintaing perfect eye discipline EVERY PLAY which is almost impossible to do. If Jaylon and Sheldon and Isaac weren’t so supremely talented this defense would have looked alot worse. .. I do project upgrades in talent when Nyles or one of the young backers takes over for Joe. Tevon taking over for Jaylon isn’t an upgrade but it’s not 5 steps backwards either. I pray to God Greer wins job over Onwaulu. Greer is a more natural linebacker and made plays we didn’t see James make. I think we’ll see a more solid linebacking corps on field next year. You have to have the players/ability to execute your scheme. BVG has been around long enough to know this. Red Zone offensive issues go away with MZ at qb. That zone read is hard to stop with a true running qb back there. As ahtletic as Kizer is, he isn’t the natural Malik is. I can already see a dual qb system coming into play.
Inconsistency both offensively and defensively sums up NDs season thus far. A 10-2 season is nothing to be unhappy about, but it is certainly disappointing. With all the injuries to key players, the RDZ failures on both sides of the ball improvement needs to be made for next year. replacing Jaylon Smith and a few others on defense will be a big problem. The QB situation is set, regardless of who wins out. Running back has Adams. The kicking game is solid. If their going to challenge for the top spot the machine needs a fine tuning. One last thing, lets get another game on the schedule. Not playing this week hurts our chances. Go Irish!
Corrections to original:
Tried to correct typos and didn’t register:
Line 1: small “a after add.
Line 3: should be ….”away foes in the first half”
Line 5: The thing that (lower case T)
Excellent summary. I would add A couple more thoughts.
In game after game (going back several seasons) the Irish just didn’t have the killer instinct to put away fors in the forest half – i.e. RZ TD”s). There were also the countless defensive lapses late in a game.
The thing That is so disconcerting is that, as pointed out in the article, these issues started in Game 2 and were repeated numerous times. The explanations were always the same “minor issues to clean up.” Since they were never fixed, there is something being missed at the managerial (head coaching) level.
I think our Red Zone problems stem from having an OL that is just not as great as want to make them out to be. A truly great OL dominates in the Red Zone, not just when the D is playing prevent. A truly great OL exerts its will. The Irish Red Zone problems is all the proof you need that this OL was not great. Good, yes. Great, not so much.
And lest I’m misquoted, I’m not putting all the blame on the OL. QB play was also an issue. Where were C. Robinson and the TEs in the Red Zone? C. Robinson made a great catch for a TD against USC. Thus play calling was also problematic.
But I believe that a truly dominant OL gets its O to at least 65 to 70% TD efficiency inside the 20.
Good article telling it like it is
It is not only typical for this year but the entire tenure under Kelly as far as red zone problems. Look at the games where they had red zone issues Temple, BC and Stanford. If you look back on BK’s career at ND it’s a lot of turnovers in the red zone. He had the ability to run the ball and a running QB, but still had trouble at times converting TD’s in the red zone.
Although I disagree with the T formation being run at ND, something has to change. The problem with running the T formation is you don’t have the personnel to run it, nor did you recruit the personnel to run power football in that way. You don’t have a blocking fullback and you don’t have the line schemes being taught. I think instead of going with 4 wide outs you go with 2 wide outs and 2 tight ends. The injuries to the starting TE hurt because you didn’t have the personnel group to run that formation. Aliz was young and the other TE missed 2 games due to injury. I would love to see either in the bowl game or next year Fuller and Robinson on the outside and two TE’s in the slot. This allows you to run fades to the corner with Robinson and Fuller, Slants and posts ups with a big body TE and the ability to pull the TE in and play power football.
The Irish should have given Morgan some playing time so he could learn to get people in position. He would have added speed at times too. There is a problem with this D. Is it BVG? I’m inclined to think so.
I have long thought the ND red zone touchdown efficiency would benefit from switching from the spread to the T-formation, with the QB taking the snap under center and with 1 or 2 backs behind him whenever they’re within 10 yards of the goal line. The closer you get to the end zone the more the field shrinks and the less the spread formation gives any advantage. In order for the defense to prevent a TD, it almost has to “sell-out,” fill the gaps and overreact to the first movement of the offense. From the T-formation, the D has to overreact to the QB’s first movement and has to assume that he is going to hand the ball off to the back at the line of scrimmage, as opposed to handing it off 6 yards behind the line of scrimmage in the spread. That initial overreaction by the D opens up a world of possibilities for the offense, as Stanford demonstrated so well. a number of the pass plays, like the fade and slant, would also work better in the red zone from the T-formation. The upcoming bowl game would be a good opportunity to experiment with using the T-formation in the red zone. What the heck, it couldn’t result in any worse TD production than what we’ve been watching all season. We have an outstanding, physical O line and great, powerful backs. Why not use them?
The Irish Defense:
Man coverage and no pass rush (and forced to blitz)
That’s a tough deal for even the best secondary.
Now take away Senior DL Jarron Jones, 5th year senior Avery Sebastian, senior KeiVarae Russell, and
talented freshmen Shaun Crawford.
Much like last year, when VanGorder has his best players they play pretty good defense. Without them, they struggle.
Nailed it.BVG or his system have to go, same for whoever called our red zone plays this year.
The defense definitely needs some work. I know a lot of people made a big deal about offensive miscues against Stanford, but you’re absolutely right. Scoring 36 points should be enough to win most of your games. I noted before I’m not ready to fire BVG yet. It’s his 2nd year so it’d be premature to pull the plug. But the defensive coaches, and BK, have some work to do. If they don’t show improvement next year, then I think it would be time to pull the plug. They are going to have to make some changes. The defense did seem to do pretty well against the run and they bottled up McCaffrey pretty good, which was crucial. But the secondary needs work. They also answered the triple option threat, but unfortunately you don’t face it every week.
Ultimately it was the defense that cost us the games against Stanford and Clemson. If all they do is stop Stanford’s last drive, it’s a win. With Clemson, if they don’t give up 2 quick TD’s they win. So yes, BVG has some work to do. It should start now, before the bowl game.