Duranko is back with a breakdown of Notre Dame’s 2016 football schedule. Here is a full ranking, in reverse order of difficulty, of Notre Dame’s 12 opponents standing between it and a berth in 2016 College Football Playoffs.
Eight new opponents festoon Notre Dame’s 2016 schedule: Texas, Stanford, Navy and USC are the only returning foes.
We will rate the GAMES in terms of ascending degree of difficulty. This is not a rating of the preseason or postseason “True Strength” of the teams. It is a good faith attempt to assess the “degree of difficulty” of an ND win on that given Saturday or Sunday (Longhorns) with the opponent, venue, timing and schedule nuances as determining factors.
At the bottom of the rankings we will furnish a five year aggregation of the inverse of the Rivals Rankings for the 2016 opponents. This is just one “metric” of the “Overall Talent Level” on the pro forma’d roster of our opponents. We concede that there are three and out players, injuries, transfers. Let us not get caught up in the thick of thin things, let us not major in minors. Talent Matters. Coaching matters.
A Few odds and ends
Brian Kelly, in his 7th year, now has out-tenured all but three opposing coaches: Mike Dantonio, David Cutcliffe and Ken Niumatalolo.
There will be four new (non-interim) coaches at our opponents – Justin Fuente at Virginia Tech, Mark Richt at Miami, Dino Babers at Syracuse, and perhaps Clay Helton at USC, if he lasts that long.
Notre Dame will face three head coaches who were former assistants in South Bend: Charlie Strong of Texas, Brian Polian of Reno and, however fleeting, David Cutcliffe of Duke
12. ARMY
San Antonio, Texas – Alamodome November 12th.
Army, simply, is not very good.
Part of the issue is that Infantry is less palatable than flying planes or sailing ships. The romance of the battlefield has faded. Navy and Air Force are more appealing service options. Jeff Monken has some potential as a coach, but Navy has defeated Army 14 years in a row.
The Irish have another advantage as they play Navy the Saturday before the Army tilt, so there will be practice and muscle memory carryover for the option, notwithstanding the different nuances that distinguish Niumatololo’s approach from Monken’s.
It is the Shamrock Series game, which triggers two trends: caterwauling from the troglodytes about the “garish uniforms” and the trend that Notre Dame is unbeaten in the Shamrock series.
The Long Gray Line has not bested a Power Five School since Army beat Boston College 34-31 on Oct. 6, 2012
The game will be played not far from where William Barrett Travis and James Bowie showed such great courage before succumbing at the Alamo. The Cadets will show great courage but will be a bigger underdog against the Army than the Travis-Bowie crew was against General Antonio Lopez de Santa Anna.
11. UNLV
Notre Dame Stadium, September 10th.
Reno is coached by Brian “I woulda got this job on my merits even if I didn’t have my last name” Polian. After years of Hall of Famer Chris Ault, Polian has managed to safely entrench the Wolfpack well behind UNLV. Staying at the top of Division One Football in Nevada was a bridge too far for Polian. With Tony Sanchez coming off a spectacular recruitIng year, UNLV, after beating Reno last year has passed the Reno program and Polian is presiding over the “Slouching toward Gomorrah” phase of Wolfpack football. Chris Ault and Colin Kaepernick are not walking through that door
Reno has not beaten a Power five football team since the Wolfpack took Washington State down by 24-13 in September of 2014.
In the three years before Polian arrived the Woflpack averaged 9 wins per year. Under Polian, the Wolfpack are averaging 6 wins per year. Coaching matters.
This is a SANDWICH game. Grit your teeth, hold your breath until you turn blue, but the Irish will, most likely, play at their lowest efficiency and effectiveness rate for the first three weeks, as the Wolfpack are sandwiched between the Longhorns and the Spartans.
But Boise State OC Mike Sanford hung “half a hundred” (plus 1) against Polian when Boise invaded Reno in 2014. The game just may not be aesthetically pleasing for jittery Irish fans. Aw, shucks!
10. NAVY
Jacksonville, EverBank Field, November 5th
Cut blocks or not, Notre Dame has beaten Navy five times in a row
In 2015, Notre Dame football went through a rite of passage in defending option football. Bob Elliott designed a defense that Van Gorder coached and the players implemented to shatter the bloated, fetid myth of Paul Johnson. The muscle memory carried over to the Navy game.
Rewatch the tapes of both games and you will see the normally confident Johnson and Niumatololo frustrated, calling time outs. Bobby Elliott, somewhere your dad Bump is proud! You broke the code of modern option football. Notre Dame no longer fears the triple option.
Several things are worth noting:
- Keenan Reynolds, a slick, sleight of hand option wizard with magic feet is now a commissioned ensign, and a USNA graduate. Whew!!!
- Navy can neither stop nor slow down Notre Dame’s offense. Since the 2010 disaster in the Meadowlands, 38 points is the LOWEST total the Irish have scored on the Middies.
- The core of the best Middie defense in years was commissioned along with Reynolds.
There is a smidgen of concern as the Irish are coming off the most challenging three game stretch of the season, NC State in Raleigh, then Stanford and Miami in South Bend, albeit the Canes are after an open date. But still…
9. SYRACUSE
Meadowlands, MetLife Stadium, October 1st
Exciting Dino Babers comes in after a stellar two years at Bowling Green. The last shooting star that left Bowling Green and proved out was Urban Meyer, enroute to Utah. But the Orange are not a good football program. In three years, their only ACC wins are three over Wake Forest, two over declining Boston College and one over NC State.
Babers will elevate3 Syracuse football but it will not be noticeable in 2016.
High School Football is dreadful in New York State. The few worthwhile players are snapped up by Notre Dame (Ishaq Williams, Jay Hayes and the Jones Lads), Florida (Dominick Easley) or Ohio State (Curtis Samuel). Syracuse is left with the table scraps, and they are meager.
Dino Babers was a rising star at Bowling Green, winning a MAC championship, a Bowl Game and beating three Big X opponents, Indiana, Maryland and Purdue. The contest will be at the Vichy residence of Syracuse football, the Meadowlands, sandwiched between Orange visits to Uconn and Wake Forest. It will take Babers more than a year to rectify the Orange ills, but he knows the value of big upset wins over the Big X. He will probably have his team produce its best effort of 2016 against the Irish.
8. DUKE
Notre Dame Stadium, September 24th
David Cutcliffe had his one moment in the sun in 2013 when the Blue Devils won the Coastal Division of the ACC and stood at 10-2 before losing to Florida State’s eventual National Champions and then in a stirring 52-48 loss to an uncharacteristically sober John Manziel and Texas A&M,
Cutcliffe had agreed in early 2005 to become the quarterback coach for one Charley Weis and spent a month working with Weis in South Bend before becoming violently ill. You do the math. Lesser men would ascribe the return of Cutcliffe’s health to his distance from ol’ Schematic Advantage.
Weis brought his mighty Kansas Jayhawks to Wallace Wade stadium in Durham in 2014 and Cutcliffe’s Blue Devils eked it out 41-3. First, we hope Cutcliffe punched his resentment all out that day. Second, the game marked the biggest Duke win over a non-ACC power Five team since a 55-6 win over Virginia Tech in 1951 (before VA Tech had joined the ACC). This was shortly before Eisenhower’s Inauguration. It marks another milestone owned by Weis, though it pales in comparison to his “Eroica,” losing to Uconn, Syracuse and Navy, at HOME in hallowed Notre Dame Stadium within one calendar year!
The Blue Devils were 8-5 last Fall and return QB Thomas Sirk, but he is more runner than thrower.
Duke travels to Evanston the week before they come to South Bend, and the Irish have Michigan State the week before we play Duke, so the Irish should be a little beat up physically.
But Duke, like Navy, is defensively challenged. They gave up 43 to a poor offense from Virginia Tech , 66 to explosive North Carolina, 42 to offensively-challenged Virginia and then 41 to Indiana’s Hurryin’ Hoosiers in the Pinstripe Bowl..
7. VIRGINIA TECH
Notre Dame Stadium, Senior Day, November 19th
Yes, it is Senior Day, with garlands and glistening eyes of players, fans, moms and dads.
The Frank Beamer era is over. He was to VA Tech football what Bobby Bowden was to Florida State Football, what Bill Snyder was to Kansas State Football.
Some of the Beamer DNA remains. Justin Fuente, the new Hokie coach, was a wunderkind whose rise at hitherto basketball school Memphis featured a pounding of Ole Miss. Fuente either wanted or accepted the retention of Defensive Coordinator Bud Foster, noted for his stellar “lunchpail” defenses.
But the Hokies struggled mightily on offense in 2015, being held under 30 points in 9 of their 13 games. VA Tech’s offense broke through only twice against Power Five schools, with 51 against woeful Purdue and 43 against the defensive sieve that is Duke in a 45-43 loss.
Notre Dame has a scheduling break once again as the Hokies must trek to south Bend sandwiched between a date with Georgia Tech, and what’s left of the Bobby Elliott-destroyed triple option of Paul Johnson and Fuente’s first test against rival Virginia. There will be intense pressure on Fuente to beat Virginia. Beamer won the last
12 editions of the interstate rivalry. Down there in Blacksburg, on the Shenandoah ridge, those kind of streaks matter, and when you replace a legend like Beamer, you are guilty until proven innocent . The Hokies and their fledgling head coach WILL be looking ahead to the Virginia game.
The 2016 Va Tech squad is not nearly as talented as the Miami team. While this is not a major or tricky challenge, it will be the next time Va Tech cycles into the Notre Dame schedule in October of 2018. That will be Fuente’s third team and it will be in Lane Stadium, with all the accoutrement of a rabid fan base licking their chops at getting their first visit from the Irish. Foster’s defense should have enough left to test the Irish offense before they head off to the Coliseum.
6. MIAMI
Notre Dame Stadium, Octobr 29th
This is tricky, very tricky. Don’t be seduced that it comes after a Saturday off for rest and recovery after Stanford, and a week before Navy.
Other than against Alabma, Mark Richt, while at Georgia, was very good at winning “focus” games. Richt is returning to alma mater, and he inherited the third most talented roster the Irish will face. Yes, the Canes have more across the roster talent than Stanford.
Also, in Brad Kaaya, a true junior, on the same experience level as Deshone Kizer, Richt, a renowned quarterback whisperer, will have the best QB the Irish will face in 2016. In 2015, the Irish faced Watson, Hogan, Reynolds, Kessler and others. It’s different this time.
The scheduling spot also favors the Irish from the visitor side, as the Canes come in after facing Florid State, then division rivals North Carolina and Va Tech before trekking to St. Joe County.
But be careful, and don’t snooze. Boca Raton native Richt brought Manny Diaz in from MississippisState to coach the defense.
While they will be visiting, that may cut the Canes’ way. The languid, empty Joe Robbie/Pro Player/Sun Life Stadium non-crowd does not support the Canes. But Richt and Diaz will sell the players on feeding off the energy of the Notre Dame crowd, even if it’s negative energy
5. MICHIGAN STATE
Notre Dame Stadium, September 17
Tough games or not, Mark Dantonio has not beaten Kelly in regulation in four tries. Sure he had the Little Giants strick play OT win in Kelly’s first year. But MSU got exposed by Bama last New Year’s Eve, 38-0.
MSU’s defense slipped a tad last year and has lost Shilique “the Freak” Calhoun. While they survived against the plodders from Penn State and Iowa, they were exposed by Bama’s athleticism. Notre Dame has fine athletes on offense. Just fine, thank you!
Michigan State will now return to its rightful place in the Big Fourteen. From ’68-’81, it was the Big 2 and the Little 8. OSU and Michigan went to 13 consecutive Rose Bowls. It is now the Big 2 and the Little 12. Ohio State and Michigan will now dominate the erstwhile Western Conference.
MSU returns a tailback of the Lorenzo White, TJ Duckett stripe in L.J. Scott who just started to figure it out in the second half of ’15, But the Spartan offense lost the three best players not named LJ Scott: Connor Cook, Jack Conklin and Aaron Burbridge-
This is a nice schedule spot for the Irish, coming 13 days after the sauna in Austin and a week after the layup drill, letdown or not, against Reno. It will be tough, it will be physical, but this Kelly program is light years better than the program Dantonio beat in 2010.
4. NC STATE
Raleigh, Carter-Finley Stadium, October 8th
This has all the earmarks of FSU 2014 and Virginia, Clemson and Temple 2015. The Wolfpack faithful have waited for this game for a lifetime.
And it is conceivable, without a stretch, that North Carolina State will be unbeaten at 4-0 when they enter the game. They open with William and Mary, East Carolina, Old Dominion, an open date and Wake Forest. While the Irish are engaging Texas’ angry Longhorns and Michigan State’s eponymous Spartans, the Wolfpack will be dining on patsy pies.
They will not have left the Tar Heel State when the Irish come a callin’. Dave Doeren has had the Wolfpack ready for October visitors the last two years. In 2014, a rabid throng at Carter-Finley was frothing at the mouth and that froth got foamier when the Wolfpack jumped to a 24-7 lead over chief Osceola, only to see a stirring Winston comeback to give FSU the 56-41 win. In 2015 the Pack took an early 20-19 lead over mighty Clemson before succumbing 56-41.
But in each case the Wolfpack generated the season’s “Supreme Effort” for the famous visitor. It will likely happen again.
Dave Doeren is now in his fourth season in Raleigh and after a slow 3-9 start has notched 8-5 and 7-6 seasons. Doeren will need to replace QB Jacoby Brissett but watch out for his defense. NC State started six true sophs in 2015 and they may be ready to snarl.
3. STANFORD
Notre Dame Stadium, October 15th
David Shaw is 0-2 in South Bend, with two tight games. Last November in Palo Alto the Irish appeared to score the winning touchdown with Kizer prancing in, but Stanford Cajusted their way down the field before Ukorpining the winning field goal.
Lost in the agony of defeat was that the Van Gorder’s defense “held” Christian McCaffrey to 94 yards in 27 carries. That was the only time that McCaffrey was held below 100 yards since early September.
Two things are different about this 2016 Stanford team. The Harbaugh mandated, Vic Fangio-engineered defenses with all those long DES and OLBS are gone, and so is their DNA.
The Cardinal allowed 26 ppg, a higher plateau for them, in their last 8 games of 2015. It may not be that good again for a while.
Also, Kevin Hogan is gone. He was a dual threat and was sympatico with fellow departee Devin Cajuste. The Cardinal also lost TE Austin Hooper and three OL.
Finally, the schedule REALLY favors the Irish. The Irish are returning after a challenging road game at NC State. But the Irish can go all in against the Cardinal as they have a Saturday off on October 22d. In the four weeks preceding the flight to South Bend International (sic) Airport, Stanford plays USC at the Farm, UCLA in the Rose Bowl, then Pac XII North contenders Washington in Seattle and WSU’s battling Cougars in Palo Alto.
This is not an easy game. It’s Stanford. But it is David Shaw’s Stanford, not Harbaugh’s. The Irish have a solid shot at keeping David Shaw winless in South Bend.
2. TEXAS
Austin, Darrell K. Royal Memorial Stadium, Sunday September 4th.
The best thing about the 2015 season was the 38-3 pounding of Texas in South Bend. The worst seeding of the killing fields of revenge for 2016 was the 38-3 pounding of Texas. That game was not so close as the final score indicated. Notre Dame had 30 first downs, Texas 8. Notre Dame had 527 yards, Texas 163.
Charley Strong? He is the type who will rub his team’s nose in the dirt of that game film. Strong has made some progress. Really, when you saw Texas succumb to the Irish in the opener, did you predict that they would later on beat both OU, 24-17 in Dallas and Baylor, 23-17 in Waco?
Strong has eliminated the last vestiges of Mack Brown’s Country Club. Brown’s minions were more renowned for their performance with the dewy eyed denizens of Austin’s Sixth Street than they were for their performance on Darrell Royal’s hallowed turf.
Notre Dame will be ready, Texas will be OBSESSED.. It will be hot, and Vance Bedford, who accompanied Strong on the trip from Louisville to Austin, has quietly built the soundest defense in the defense-phobic Big 12. Note that two explosive football teams, OU and Baylor, were both held to 17 points by a Strong/Bedford defense in the unforgiving moment. This defense will be the most athletic the Irish will play in September, and they will play with as much intensity as Dantonio’s Spartans will bring along to South Bend.
Jerrod Heard stabilized the Longhorn starting QB position but Tyrone Swoopes is making his closing argument for at least a portion of the job for the Fall. It would not surprise to see both QBS play.
In 2003 Notre Dame played its road opener in Ann Arbor and got clubbed by the Wolverines 38-0. The next year, the Irish, fomenting the revenge pot, upset Michigan at home 28-20. Past performance just doesn’t predict future results.
It will be hot and humid in Austin, and unless the Irish staff replaces Fall Camp with daily hot yoga, the climate will favor the Longhorns.
Last year’s game was the ultimate red herring.
Buckle your chin straps, lads. This is no gimmee.
This Charlie Strong Guy, he is intense, and he seethes.
1. USC
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, November 26th
It is not beyond the pale that Notre Dame could enter the game in the Coliseum with a 10-1 record and a ranking in the top 8 of the “Popularity Poll” now used to select a Final Four.
It is not beyond that pale that Kim Helton will NOT be the USC football coach for that game. Pat Haden will retire as USC Athletic Director on June 30th. It was he who hired Helton to replace the besotted Steve Sarkisian and Haden who allowed Helton to make a mind-numbingly poor hire of Clancy Pendergast as defensive coordinator.
Observe very closely the body language between SC athletic director in waiting, Lynn Swann and Helton. Helton may be another dead man walking on the USC sideline. In the last four years Kelly has faced Lane Kiffin, Ed Orgeron, Steve Sarkisian and Kim Helton on the Troy sideline. Will it be 5r for 5? The Heritage Hall head coaching job has destroyed or altered as many men as the Kardashians.
The arrival of the Rams as a Coliseum cotenant merely throws gasoline on the LA media fire. After all, the Rams Head Coach is, ta da, Jeff Fisher. He graduated from USC. You can be sure that Fisher and Swann know each other.
So if the Irish come in on a high, and Troy is in disarray, the Rams and Fisher right there (no moving expense involved!), WHAT COULD GO WRONG?
It’s USC in the Coliseum, too often a boulevard of broken Irish dreams.
Troy’s roster is packed with future pros. While it is conjectural, it appears that USC has more future NFL players on its roster than any Notre Dame 2016 opponent.
What is not conjectural is the mind-numbing talent of Adoree Jackson and Juju Smith. They may be the two most explosive athletes the Irish play. Ronald Jones, Biggie Marshall and many others have NFL explosiveness and talent. The offensive line is filled with size and potential, though Lobendahn, Talamaivo and Mama, all of whom showed flashes as frosh, seemed to plateau as sophs.
This game is the wildest card in the 2016 deck. We have an idea of what Notre Dame will be like in 2016, but there are more unknowns in that Irish equation than there were in 2015. USC? Who knows? The future is always unknowable, but Troy is so unknowable that they redound not in calculus or statistics but in chaos theory,
This year’s schedule is unusual. Not only because of the eight new opponents, but also because there is no SUREFIRE Top Ten team on the list. In contradistinction, in 2015, going in it looked as if Clemson, USC and Stanford would be top 10 teams. Well, 2 out of 3 ain’t bad.
There are no games that appear as daunting as Clemson in Death Valley and Stanford on the Farm appeared in 2015, accounting for both the talent and the venue. But, you know, there’s a reason they play the games!
There are several “Supreme Effort” games. Texas, Michigan State, NC State, Syracuse and Miami will be expected to produce “Supreme Efforts.” After all, we are ND!
5 year recruiting rankings
- USC 611
- ND 593
- Texas 579
- Miami 549
- Stanford 533
- MSU 517
- VTU 507
- NCSU 452
- Duke 379
- Syracuse 340
- Reno 160
- Navy `150
- Army 143
GOOOOOOOOOOOOO Irish! Hook the Horns!
so, Shaz, here I been, wallowin’, reading parts of Longfellow’s “Song of Hiawatha” each year around Thanksgiving, and I been b’leivin’ that Gitchee gumee was Lake Superior.
If Golden were still coaching Da U I would not be worried, but I fear Richt. He has a high “high end.” And this game, weirdly, is one of only two the Canes will play with a rabid crowd. j kI am concerned that Richt will have them attuned to the “adverse energy” in Notre Dame Stadium
In 2012, we ran the ball, but Miami was dazzled by the Shamrock, or were they Shazamrock, uniforms.
I see another 3 loss season this year.
Big – D
In regards to your reference…
” a Notre Dame win against the opponent, in that place, on that date”
The match up against Miami is of particular interest.
The Miami Hurricanes, in South Bend, on October 29th.
The last time these two teams met was on Oct 6th, 2012.
ND won 41-3 in soldier’s Field Chicago, on a cold and blustery night that clearly affected the Canes.
And the legend grew….
A legend that lives on from the Chippewa on down
of the big lake they called “Gitche Gumee.”
The lake, it is said, never gives up her dead
when the skies of October turn gloomy.
The Irish were relevant and quite in their element with a mood that bordered on surly.
The Canes tried and true, but were a bone to be chewed, when the Irish “Gales of November” came early.
Jack, you misposted this, or minimally misread the article.
There is no discussion of:
odds
favorities
underdogs
the evils and misery of degenerate gamblers.
The article merely indicates a Summer appraisal, ceteris paribus, (no Barylors,no coach firings) of the DEGREE OF DIFFICULTY of a Notre Dame win against the opponent, in that place, on that date.
If you reread the article more carefully you will see the error of your ways and learn just how much of a non sequitur your mispost was.
You’re welcome
So, once again Notre Dame are underdogs to USC? Ok i can buy that but…USC will be 2 or 3 losses down by that matchup, while ND could be perfect or 10-1. If USC beats Alabama on opening weekend (very doubtful) then it could even be a 1-2 match. I think USC has a harder road to drive than ND…but I look forward to the matchup!
Archangel, I will be looking at three key leading (trailing?) indicators for the defense.
Of course, injuries and uncertainty could change things.
How healthy is Jarron Jones?. Michael, go back and look at how he performed in Doak Campbell in the 2014 game. He was the best defensive lineman on the field for either side. we won’t know until somewhere between Michigan State and Stanford what, if any, toll, the two big injuries exacted. I am a Daniel Cage fan, but he is far more lethal as a substitute, swinging to either tackle position, than he is as a starter.
Nyles Morgan at Middle Linebacker. I had to bite my tongue last year and not list the yardage yielded by the departed, who played with heart and soul. But Morgan has size, athleticism and plays with a certain “darkness in his heart.” How Morgan maintains containment discipline against mobile quarterbacks will tell a lot about this defense.
Max Redfield. A tease for three years, can he lock in his senior year? A year from now we will have the wunderkinds, Elliott and Studstill, supporting Tranquill. But Redfield needs to be a playmaker, and not be an answer to “Which player has not lived up to his billing?” It may be that Tranquill may be a better more complementary (as in yin/yang) partner for Max than the guys he’s played with before.
Tell me how those three perform over 12 games and I’d then speculate on the year’s defensive performance.
This is not the most daunting schedule. I won’t relax about Texas until Midnight on Labor Day Sunday, but there are not the challenges (@Clemson, @Stanford) that dotted last year’s schedule.
I think that folks who are NFL afficianidos get lulled to sleep about home/away. I(t is “mere evidence” in the NFL and the FULCRUM in college.
Good to talk to you, Archangel, say hi to Gabriel and Raphael!
Defense wins the big games so 10 wins would be shocking.
I think you mean Nevada Reno and not UNLV.
Good analysis, disagree with Texas above Stanford, but I do realize it’s a road game. Schedule could be very manageable, especially if SC has an off year, go Irish!
Welcome back, Duranko.
Thanks for the entertaining in-depth preview.
I agree the two road games in Texas and North Carolina will be challenging.
NC State will be rabid when ND arrives, as well as the Longhorns.
MSU and Stanford will likely be close, but how can;t the Irish be insane for revenge after last season in Palo Alto? The Stanford game for me is the critical win on this year’s schedule.
Miami has stockpiled talent, and winning in the Coliseum is never easy. In fact, beating SC anywhere is never easy. All the rest of the games should be wins; if not, the #FireKelly tweets will flow.
That leaves 6 games ND could lose. Losing more than three is unacceptable, and with a most uncertain D’, can we expect more than ten regular season wins? Score early and often and hold on might be the necessary game plan for this season.