Going into 2016, if every player makes the contribution that is expected of them, it would be fair to say that Notre Dame is anywhere from an eight win team at the bottom to an 11 win team at the top, depending on injuries to certain positions and so forth.
It’s also fair to say that for a playoff run to occur next year, some players are going to have to exceed expectations. On paper this team is not playoff caliber, not at this time anyway. At this time of the year in 2012, the Irish didn’t look anything like a contender either though.
When looking back at that national runner-up 2012 squad, there were a litany of players that outperformed their preseason projections–Theo Riddick, Zeke Motta, KeiVarae Russell, Bennett Jackson, and even star Manti Te’o–which propelled them to their title run. At this time in 2012, Russell was still a wide receiver.
The good news for the 2016 version of Notre Dame’s football team lies in the expectation they will be excellent at the most important position in the game–quarterback. Therefore a rise in the level of play of a select few players could put them in the hunt for playoff contention, perhaps even more so than last season, given the state of the quarterback position of their opponents.
Obviously, it’d be great if every player exceeded their expectations in the upcoming season, but for the sake of this exercise, here are a select few wild cards that can drastically change the ceiling and overall outcome of the 2016 Fighting Irish football team.
Jerry Tillery, Defensive Tackle
If you’re awesome and you read my piece ranking the top 11 defensive players on the current Notre Dame team, you may have been surprised to not see Tillery on the list. After a strong start in the opener against Texas, where he registered a sack, Tillery faded down the stretch, failing to make a significant impact in the middle and culminating his freshman season with a suspension prior to the Fiesta Bowl against Ohio State.
To be fair, TIllery was put into a difficult position having to replace injured Jarron Jones at the nose tackle spot in just his first season. While he didn’t make a major impact on the field, he for the most part held his own. Given the early praise he garnered from Brian Kelly–he raved about him in the spring, saying Tillery had the best hands of any freshman that he had coached–he was seen as a bit of a disappointment.
Tillery followed that up with an underwhelming spring in which his effort was questioned by defensive line coach Keith Gilmore, all of which led to his exclusion from the top 11 on defense.
All that said, the former four star recruit from Louisiana comes with a good amount of pedigree and a shift in attitude and motivation could propel the defensive line to another level next year. After moving to the three technique next to Jarron Jones, this gives Notre Dame twin 300 pound interior players who can wreak havoc on the middle of the o-line, freeing up the athletic Nyles Morgan to roam and make plays. He can also form a nice little pass rushing tandem with senior Isaac Rochell, should Notre Dame elect to move him inside on pass rushing downs. As we saw in 2012, the key to any good defense is a stout defensive line, and the ascension of Jerry Tillery can provide that.
Drue Tranquill, Strong Safety
This one is related to health as much as it is performance. Drue Tranquill has been productive whenever he has been on the field, but twelve (or hopefully 14) games of his presence on the field could pay major dividends for the success of the defense. In most cases, one of the safety positions needs to be a signal caller for the defense and especially the secondary and the two options at free safety are Max Redfield (we all know that story) and true freshman Devin Studstill. Studstill has shown the ability to pick up the defense rather quickly in his short time on campus, but knowing his role and knowing the role of everyone else are two different things. This is where Tranquill, who will be in his magical third season in Brian VanGorder’s defense, can prove to be invaluable for a secondary group that is long on talent, but still uncertain.
He also provides physical play with solid coverage ability–there are also some rumblings that he has slimmed down to provide more range coming off of the hash in deep coverage. It’s easy to draw a parallel between his style of play and that of Zeke Motta in 2012, who for as much as what he did on the field, provided stability and toughness in the middle of the secondary. This is a role Tranquill is very well suited for, if he can just stay out there.
Corey Holmes/CJ Sanders, Slot WRs
Aside from the TJ Jones season in 2013, Notre Dame has gotten mixed results from its slot position during Brian Kelly’s time at Notre Dame. Robby Toma was not fast or big enough, CJ Prosise not a natural receiver, and Amir Carlisle didn’t possess the explosiveness to make himself a true threat down the field or on jet sweeps across the field.
This can change with the duo of CJ Sanders and Corey Holmes. Holmes may be the fastest player on the Notre Dame team, having clocked a 4.39 40 during winter conditioning (although incoming freshman Troy Pride Jr. may have something to say about that moniker for Holmes) and Sanders has already displayed his explosiveness having returned a punt and a kickoff for touchdowns during his initial season.
It is Holmes who seems to be oozing with potential at 6-1, 190 pounds to go with his blazing speed, a slightly faster version of Jones who registered 70 catches for 1,110 yards and nine scores in 2013. It is unlikely that Holmes would approach those numbers–there are simply too many weapons on this offense for production like that–but what he brings to the team could be similar to that of Jones, who did a lot of his damage from the slot, even with Tommy Rees at quarterback.
Sanders for his part could be a Percy Harvin type figure for the Fighting Irish out of the slot, especially in the jet sweep game. We’ve already seen him weave in and out of traffic on special teams and it’s incredibly easy to see him doing the same on jet sweeps or on quick screens, a la the aforementioned Jones. Already possessing a strong running game, it will be bolstered when a weapon like Sanders motions across the formation for a possible jet sweep, an occurrence that didn’t carry the same weight when it was Amir Carlisle.
Notre Dame will be formidable at quarterback, running back and on the outside on offense. If Sanders and Holmes can create problems for defenses in the middle of the field, that would likely be too much for opposing defenses to handle on a regular basis.
Aliz’e Jones, Tight End
Is he ready to be a star? That’s really the question, because if his game is ready to make a dramatic ascent, then this offense will be more than formidable for opponents next year. With the retirement of Corey Robinson, Jones saw a good amount of time at the W receiver position in the spring, the position that Tyler Eifert played a good amount of in 2012, and will no doubt create matchup problems for whoever decides to cover him out there.
The elevation of Jones would help the offense in so many ways: in the red zone where Eifert was such a threat to the defense in 2011 and 2012 due to his size and athletic ability, in the run game as an outside player against a corner or cracking down on a linebacker, or in the middle of the field as a safety valve for his quarterback, as we saw in the spring game.
Four guys. That’s all Notre Dame needs to thrust themselves into the playoff picture again in 2016 (it would also help if Nyles Morgan was really good, but I’ve written about him enough this off-season). That’s not too much to ask, is it?
I agree that there are wild cards that could prove to be the difference between being good and being great, but to me the keys to the season are in this order (almost all on D): 1: Nyles Morgan. With the guys we’ve lost someone is going to have to make a lot of tackles and it starts with him. 2. Whoever is next to Morgan, “replacing” the irreplaceable Jaylon Smith, be it Te’von Coney, Asmar Bilal, or even Daelin Hayes if they move him back there to get him on the field a bit. Onwalu will be dependable, and if the D-line stays healthy I think they’ll be very good — not great, but good enough — if the linebackers are there to clean it up, timely and dependably. We need all three LBs to be consistent tacklers and decent in coverage. 3. Whoever ends up replacing Keivarre Russell — whether Nick Watkins or Nick Coleman or someone else. I think the rest of the D, even Max Redfield, will be good enough to win 10 games, but only if these three spots really come through. 4. Jerry Tillery/Elijah Taylor. Jarron Jones and Daniel Cage if healthy will be formidable on the nose, but Tillery and Taylor need to be equally strong as DTs at the point of attack. 5. Whoever “replaces” the irreplaceable Will Fuller, be it Equinimeous St. Brown and/or Myles Boykin. Torii Hunter Jr. will be spectacular this year, and I think Corey Holmes will be fine too, but this other receiver will have to provide consistent production.
Thanks for the pep talk James. Perhaps you, Timmy and P daddy can grab a beer with Tommy Rees one day.
This will be another 3 loss team.
Well said Tim, Tommy Rees may not have had all the tools to be a dominant QB, but I too believe his football intelligence was top notch. With Rees on the sidelines, he essentially was an additional coach, using his football IQ to assist Golson. I believe that is what helped propel that team to the national championship game. You can see how much that was missed when Golson returned in 2014 from his suspension. Remember, in the NFL, the back up QB is nearly as important as the starter in knowing the plays and the reads and assisting with the starter to make the correct calls. I believe we will see Tommy Rees being a HC somewhere down the line, so long as he wants to.
I enjoy your column, try to read it everyday. Thanks for that.
Please do me a favor– I wish you would stop slapping Tommy Rees all the time. He is an ND Graduate who gave all he had and came off the bench a bunch of times to save our asses. He was a team player when he was replaced by Golson and did not cause dissesion on the team, but stayed ready to contribute. He was a smart quarterback who did not have the best arm in the world, but won a lot of games for us, and he did not fit into Kelly’s offense, but did not transfer but stayed on and contributed all he could. At the end of the day, I am proud of him and so should we all feel that way. I would love to meet him and buy him several beers. I have many good memories of him completing numerous passes to Michael Floyd. We all know that without him in 2012 we would not have been in the Championship game! So please honor him and do not belittle him for he is one of us!
Niles Morgan is the key, although the other four mentioned in this post can be difference makers. How dominant the three new OL starters are, and whether the D’ can provide pressure and timely stops are also critical in getting 10 or more wins. Like this article says, the unexpected surprises from year-to-year will also boost the win total. Which Frosh will be important contributors and which upper-class men will come of age? Stay tuned.