2016 Over/Under Predictions For Notre Dame Football: Defense

After giving the 2016 predictions on offense, it is time for us to look at the defense and how I expect they will perform in the upcoming season. As is well known, this unit suffered some pretty serious losses to the draft and most recently to legal troubles. This would seem ominous for a squad that has been disappointing in each of Brian VanGorder’s first two seasons as the defensive coordinator, and for the first time under BVG, they enter the season without a true star on the defensive side. There are some reasons for optimism, however, as this defensive unit appears to be strong in areas where the previous defenses were fatally weak.

Defensive Line

Total Yards Per Game Given Up Rushing: 120.5

We’ve all seen the depth chart on the defensive line, and we all know where the defensive line is weak, at least on paper: pass rush. There just aren’t a lot of great options in that area, even given the rave reviews freshman defensive end Daelin Hayes has been receiving so far in fall practice. Remember, as much potential Hayes has off the edge, true freshman Aaron Lynch managed just 5.5 sacks in 2011. Which would be great for Hayes, but he’s likely to be Notre Dame’s best pass rusher and 5.5 isn’t a dominant number.

However, it’s hard to be any type of good pass rushing team if you are also poor against the run, as Notre Dame was last year. They gave up 175 yards on the ground, a pitiful 72nd nationally, and a just as futile 87th in yards per carry. Luckily, there is reason to believe Notre Dame can be excellent against the run in 2016. Nose tackle Jarron Jones and his 6’5, 315 pound frame is back in the middle, along with the 6’1, 315 pound Daniel Cage. Sophomore Jerry Tillery gives the Irish a third 300 pounder to rotate in along the interior, depth they did not have last season. Senior Isaac Rochell, perhaps Notre Dame’s best defensive player, has always been very strong against the run, and Jay Hayes has taken over the opposite defensive end spot at 6’3, 290. That gives the Irish five front line defenders at or near 300 pounds, which will be difficult to move for any offensive line.

120 yards a game given up should put them around 20th nationally, not nearly as good as the 2012 defense that gave up 105 a game, but a nice benchmark to shoot for. The more third and longs this defense can get into and force obvious passing downs to bring in their designated pass rush unit, the better.

Prediction: Over

Linebackers

Combined Sacks: 12.5

I will admit that this is an incredibly ambitious number. In the previous two seasons under Brian VanGorder the sack totals, with super human Jaylon Smith on the team, came in at seven in 2014 and six in 2015 (this is a stat I’ll never get over. Ever. Jaylon Smith with 4.5 sacks in two seasons? My goodness, what a waste of his talent). It would seem ludicrous to suggest that this seasons linebacker unit can more than double the total of last season, especially given the question marks at the WILL and the uneven play of James Onwualu at SAM, not to mention the wild card that is Nyles Morgan in the middle.

I happen to be a true believer in Nyles Morgan and his ability as a play-maker. Consider that in 2014 when he was forced into action with the injury to Joe Schmidt and had to run around with no idea as to what he was doing and where he was supposed to be, his tackle for loss rate was still second behind only Jaylon Smith. His size and athleticism–he’s essentially a faster Manti Te’o from a physical skills standpoint–coupled with the role his position plays in this defense, should lend itself to some big numbers.

There is also a certain amount of faith to be placed in the senior season that will be turned in by James Onwualu at the SAM linebacker spot. First, he revealed that he will stay on the field when Notre Dame goes to their “speed package” which I assume refers to their nickel and dime units, and his role will be that of an edge rusher. He appears to finally be comfortable with the size that it takes to play linebacker at the division one level and he is the best candidate for a senior bump on the whole team.

It’s hard to make a strong case Notre Dame will get increased production at the WILL over what Jaylon Smith turned out, so I won’t. The only thing to point out is Notre Dame is likely to be stronger on the defensive line in general, and a strong defensive line occupies blockers, which should create more opportunities for the linebacker unit, both in the running game and the passing game. And while I’m skeptical that this unit can more than double last seasons sack total, I do expect double digit sack numbers, the team is simply better in the one spot that is most important.

Prediction: Under

Secondary

Combined Interceptions By The Secondary Unit: 10.5

In 2014 the secondary brought in a respectable 13 interceptions and last season they brought in a measly seven, for a two year average of 10 a season. Part of Brian VanGorder’s appeal as a defensive coordinator is that while his defense is seen as susceptible to big plays, they also create big plays for the defense as well. High risk/high reward and all that jazz. At least from last seasons perspective, there was a lot more of the “risk” portion as opposed to any “reward.” The dreaded low ceiling, low floor proposition.

In a development that may be seen as a positive or a negative, given your point of view, the Irish are now forced to replace three starters from last seasons secondary, although luckily the one returning starter was their most productive, right corner Cole Luke. In his two seasons as a starter Luke has recorded a respectable six interceptions and 16 passes broken up and has by most accounts had a very good camp and looks to be in his best form.

True freshman Devin Studstill takes over the starting free safety spot for the dismissed Max Redfield and while it’s hard to project freshman numbers, Studstill’s greatest strengths are his football instincts and knowledge for the game, two traits that generally are used for a guy who just knows how to play the game. They are also not words used to describe Max Redfield at any point, by anyone. Studstill is not the athlete Redfield is, although he is no slouch in that category, but his game lends itself to more playmaking opportunities in general, and frankly, it’s not that hard to duplicate little to no production, which is what the safety position has brought in the last couple of seasons.

Finally, the biggest boon to the secondary is likely to come in the form of Shaun Crawford, and my opinion of him is very well known to those who have followed my work this off-season. He’s a playmaker and a future star; whoever wants to set the over/under at the number of times I fawn over him this season should take the over.

Prediction: Over