My wife is a market analyst for a financial firm in Southern California. She has described to me what it is like on the trading floor when the market takes a significant dip, or even something as bad as a crash, on more than a few occasions. Reports come in, numbers start tumbling, and for a brief time everyone just stares at their computer screens trying to take in all the implications of what those numbers mean, what can be done, and how bad the situation actually is. And, obviously, some people lose their heads. There is cursing. There is a sense of doom and a certain degree of fatalistic thinking. Wherever you were watching the Notre Dame football team give up 36 unanswered points in 17 minutes and 45 seconds of game action between the 2nd and third quarters, you were most likely going through a very similar experience.
It was swift. It was definitive. It was hard to watch.
Luckily, the market always corrects, and the same can be done for the Notre Dame team. But, the overview of the situation as of today is not pretty.
Trending Up
Notre Dame Passing Game:
If you’ve got stock in the Notre Dame receivers or DeShone Kizer, you’re looking pretty darn good right now. Not simply because of the way they have played in the first three contests, but what is likely to take place over the remainder of the season. It’s become exceedingly clear that Notre Dame, on any given Saturday, will be required to score at least five touchdowns to win football games. It is also exceedingly clear that the Notre Dame offensive line, while still having immense potential to improve as the season goes on, is not currently playing at the dominant level that was seen last year. Kizer and the receiving core is the best thing going on the Notre Dame team right now (frankly, it might be the only good thing going on the Notre Dame team at the present time), and given the praise that has been heaped on Kizer from NFL scouts despite the poor start to the season, he might not be long as the Notre Dame starter beyond this season. Kelly needs to ride him, and Torii Hunter Jr., CJ Sanders and Equanimeous St. Brown have proven capable of shouldering the load as the focal points of the offense.
Trending Down
Brian Kelly’s Football Program:
Brian Kelly should not be fired, nor is he likely to be fired. But, there are some disturbing trends regarding the direction the program is headed under his leadership that give one pause as to his long term future as the Notre Dame head football coach. Consider that in their last three losses–which have come in the last four games–they have trailed by 21, 17, and 29 points at some point in the contests. Consider that this was done with a quarterback who is in all likelihood going to be drafted in the top 5 of the NFL draft and has lost 4 of 5 to the likes of Kevin Hogan, JT Barrett, Shane Buechele and Tyler O’Conner.
Beyond the stats, it’s the admitted sloppiness that we’ve seen from Notre Dame in the first three weeks that is most troubling. A common contention among defenders of Kelly and those advocating for his dismissal are the expectations of the football program in general. Will Notre Dame ever be consistently elite again? And more importantly, can they be elite under Kelly? The argument usually devolves into someones schema over what it means to be elite and whether it is fair to hold the same expectations to Kelly as say someone like Lou Holtz, who excelled at Notre Dame in a vastly different college football landscape.
The bigger picture, though, is the expectation from any coach should be that he is getting his players and his team to play at a level that maximizes the talent that he has at his disposal. And it is in this area where Brian Kelly was so severely out-coached by not just Mark Dantonio on Saturday, but also against David Shaw of Stanford and Charlie Strong of Texas. There are real conversations to be had about the talent gap when Notre Dame loses to Clemson and Ohio State. What’s the excuse against Stanford? Or Texas that has been in shambles for a couple of years? Or Michigan State? Mark Dantonio didn’t just out-coach Brian Kelly on Saturday. He out-coached him in the spring and in the fall, when he was building his team. His team knows what it is, what it wants to do, and they executed that identity to perfection on Saturday. Notre Dame is more talented than Michigan State. This is true. If you keep the same rosters and just flip the coaches, Notre Dame wins by multiple touchdowns.
Brian Kelly is in trouble right now because his team is not sound in the fundamentals, something that is not said of Michigan State or Stanford. There were missed assignments all over the place on Saturday, on both sides of the ball. Special teams were an unmitigated disaster. There is no greater indictment of a football coach and his program that seven years in, on week three, you proclaim to have a sloppy football team. There is still time to fix it, but recent history suggests more trouble may be ahead.
Sell
Brian VanGorder:
It’s time. It’s just time. A lot of us were guilty in thinking this thing could be turned around on defense, myself included. I bought into the whole three years in the defense mantra that was sold to us in the preseason. I felt the upgrade at middle linebacker with Nyles Morgan coupled with a strong defensive line and an improved James Onwualu and a healthy Shaun Crawford would be enough for Notre Dame to be at least as good defensively as they have been. I was wrong, I was all wrong. The good news is I feel confident about the pieces that Notre Dame has defensively. Morgan and Coney can play ball. Jerry Tillery played his best game on Saturday. He moved the right tackle off of the earth on a second quarter run in route to a tackle for loss. Daniel Cage is a monster at times. Julian Love looked solid in his time on the field. Daelin Hayes is tracking tight ends with some serious Jaylon Smith type athleticism.
At this point, it’s all being wasted with poor technique and a lack of knowledge of what they are supposed to be doing. This has been the story of Brian VanGorder’s defenses since he arrived at Notre Dame, and it will continue to be the story until whenever he leaves. After how poorly Jaylon Smith was utilized last season, there is no reason to think that VanGorder will ever get the most out of whatever talent he has at his disposal, not when the most talented player he has ever and will ever have the pleasure of coaching was reduced to what Kelly called the “cleanup guy”. When a three year starter in Cole Luke–in the midst of the worst game of his career, in his 29th start at Notre Dame–can’t execute a simple coverage (as Brian Kelly put it) on a game deciding third down play, that in a nutshell is the failure of VanGorder and his defense.
It’s unlikely VanGorder will be asked to move on during the season–there would be too many moving parts and Brian Kelly would most likely have to take over the defense–but it is inconceivable that he would return next year. Given the number of players from last years defense who are now on NFL rosters, we really can’t blame the talent.
What To Watch For
Increased Snaps For Daelin Hayes:
This young man is the future for the Notre Dame defense and while he is not likely to be developed in a way that is sufficient this season, just by being in the game and gaining invaluable live reps will be tremendously beneficial to his future. Obviously, heaping too much praise on a player early in his career can be counterproductive, but his pass break up that led to the Devin Studstill interception showed Jaylon Smith-like ability in coverage. Not only that, when have we seen a Notre Dame defensive back play the ball that well, let alone a freshman defensive end?
Increased Snaps For Chase Claypool:
He seems to be a faster, more athletic version of Miles Boykin. Whatever Notre Dame wanted to do with Alize Jones from the W position this year, can they not do the same things with Claypool? What are we missing here?
Find those Rosary beads yet? ND football needs all the prayers it can get!
But I guess you don’t agree. The ones who need the prayers according to you are the ones who see reality for what it is. Poor “Debbie Downers” for not being self-delusional like you.
Perhaps while your on your knees you should also pray for your cheating pro team. God knows Belicheat wouldn’t know the Ten Commandments if it hit him in the head!
Go Irish!
F-the-Patriots!
Like I said earlier , Debbie Downers gloating with huge wood on the 1-2 start. May the Saints of Ireland forgive me on my ill-willed thoughts. I had a dream that 80,000 fans …… I’m sorry , I can’t go ay further. I’m looking for my Rosary Beads—-can’t seem to locate at this time.
Notre Dame our mother
Remember bj…..
Gray skies are gonna clear up…
Put on a happy face
Brush off the clouds and cheer up….
Put on a happy face
And spread
Sunshine
all over
the place
Just put on a happy face!
That’s actually a good point, BJ. Damian believes he’s being a positive influence, but in actuality he’s a downer because he’s probably correct in that, as you said, “it’s just not serious anymore.”
You know Bruce, you’re right. I do get long winded in my comments compared to others and I apologize for that. By now I think my opinion is rather obvious, and probably doesn’t mean a whole lot in the grand scheme. I get hung up with trying to press my point, so I think I’ll take a break for a while and just sit back and watch, and hopefully enjoy their upcoming games, along with my pro-teams and ND Basketball when it gets going.
Go Irish.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=yq1PXq2egMg
Swarbrick is a joke
Bvg is a joke
Kelly is a joke
You have been conned
They remind me of Damian’s long posts
Which constantly show us it’s just not serious anymore
After an early loss, I believe it was Tulsa, Brian Kelly told us to “get used to it.” After numerous losses I guess I am used to it. Other than the miracle or lucky 12-0 season before the blowout to Alabama Kelly has been an average coach. Like Davie, Willingham, and Weis before him Kelly has still not won a major bowl game. The last time that happened was when 1993, 23 years of futility. Kelly at best is a 9-4 or 10-3 coach.
Get used to it.
Try for the 1st down or punt in those last few minutes against Sparky? My first thought was Kelly you slick dude. Great time for a fake punt. Why punt to a team you have not been able to stop all game, if you’re not successful you still might stop them… What to my surprise “HE PUNTED.” So vanilla! Every year we seem to have great recruits sign on, so we should never be called young – then what the hell is going on. It does not take a mental giant to recognize the blame; it is our heart-break defense. Schemes and skills are lacking. Had other coaches over for the game and the continuing remarks (“He is not going to rush with four again…” )were regards the 4 man line approach and the inability to make downfield tackles. Kelly needs to change his practices and scrimmage full scale, full speed for the rest of the season.
BK spends so much time chastising 20 year old athletes for their mistakes that before you know it, MSU hits a home run and goes for 2. He turns around and asks “what did I just miss”??? I have an idea BK…try something new, such as criticize privately and praise publicly and maybe your players will respect you more and play harder for you!! You’ve been going about it backwards since your arrival, my least favorite moment is a three-n-out and the QB getting an earful from you. It’s never mattered who the QB was either.
Let it go once in awhile, they’re human and they really want to win but are peering over their shoulder all the time because of the way you treat em. Everyone makes mistakes remember that, especially calling a timeout late in the game on 4th down and punting. Who wastes a timeout to punt? You do!! I hope you yelled at yourself in the mirror after the game for that! That is a classic example of everything wrong with your program. MSU kicks you in the teeth after a turnover and you roll over and kick the ball back to them???? Game Over!
I’m past the point of caring whether they win or lose. Just seeing them touch that “play like a champion” sign and coming out of the tunnel , the Fighting Irish fight song, and the Leprechaun is enough for this die-hard Irish Fan!
SFR,
I cant imagine this team not putting a beat down on Duke and Syracuse. While i don’t believe ND can hang with the top 10 teams based on there lack of defense and inability to run the football against the more physical teams, i do believe there still good enough to beat the lower tier ACC teams. Stanford will be a nightmare for this defense. BK and his staff have not been able to build a team that can win in the trenches consistently.
Bk Doesn’t get his players up for the games.. he was clearly out coached as well
why don’t they being back joe Schmidt as a assistant to help explain the defense since he was one of the few to understand the concepts.
jeff,
Right now I wouldn’t bet on ND winning any game easily!
Notre Dame will win there next two games easily. Everyone will be happy. The team will appear to be back on the right track. The defense will have finally found its way. But wait. Uh Oh. Here comes Stanford. One step forward then three steps backwards.
Y’all are off your rocker if you think firing Brian Kelly is the answer at this point. He IS going to fire BVG at the end of the season if they don’t significantly improve in my opinion. Remember, Brian is an extremely poised and professional head coach (which is partially why he has been a school favorite unlike past slobs, see Charlie Weis) and has done a great job creating a new winning culture of football at Notre Dame. Let’s be honest, prior to his appointment, we had a muddy field, a stuffy old and quiet crowd and mediocre talent coming in.
Sure, he has been marginally over loyal publicly to his biggest weakness but you can’t possibly continue to coach this kids up and expect them to respect BVG in an environment where he is bashing him publicly. The actions speak louder than the words and as BK said from Saturday night we got to see his actions in the office with BVG.
The ND head coach guillotine is ridiculous. Just ready to chop the best coach they’ve had since Lou for no one because they struggle after starting a defense full of frosh.
George “The Fool Speaks”. MSU and Texas are very good teams idiot. You denegrate the kids to improve your own worthless and lousy existence. Creepo.
In my opinion Brian Kelly is at best a “B” level coach. He is capable of winning eight or so games per year. I do not think that he will ever rise to the level of what are termed elite coaches. i.e Meyer and Saban. He will never achieve the status that Holtz and Ara attained at Notre Dame.
His prime problem is that he can’t rise above the level of Big East or Division 3 of play. The compition that he faces today is qualitative different than those two environments. He has not learned to rise to this level of competition.
Some of his issues include:
1. Though he recruits well, he has not shown that he can develop these players into championship caliber of play. His track record in providing the NFL players is admirable, but disheartening in that we did not see these qualities translate into dominating play at ND.
2. He appears not to be prepared for high caliber teams. It appears it takes two or three quarters for him to adjust to the level of play of opponents.
3. He appears not to be able to motivate players. His recent comments blame ND players focus on non football activities.
4. His tolerating a dismal defense not only in technique but scheme. A good manager would have corrected this well before it has become a major issue on his account.
5. He makes incredibly poor decisions in game winning situations. He selects low probability and outright stupid plays that lead to losses.
6. I think at one time he had NFL aspirations. His NFL job search after the 2012 USC game can be considered nothing less than criminal. Based on the past few years it is highly unlikely thata NFL would risk hiring him.
Unfortunately, ND is stuck with him for at least this year and next.
The best I can hope for is that there is some coach who can “Make Notre Dame Great Again’
“Brian Kelly’s Football Program” — that pretty much says it all
Just think what will happen when ND plays an actual good team.
Ground Hog Day the movie
I can’t disagree with the analysis of BK and BVG. I’ve been clear about my opinion that firing BK at this point would be a mistake. But there is no disputing this is year 7 and ND is trending down. The only positive I took from the MSU game is the team fought back and didn’t just give up, as had happened so many times under Willingham and Weis when faced with a large deficit.
Even most of the fire BK crowd acknowledges next year would likely be the earliest BK would be dismissed, for various reasons, not the least of which they just finished paying off Weis. I do believe next year will be a final judgment year for BK, however. He basically has that long to right the ship. Some believe it’s just impossible. My own faith in BK has taken a hit, but I have not abandoned all hope, mainly because I find it hard to fathom how a previously successful coach at numerous stops before ND is failing to find success at ND. It’s not like ND hired a no name coach. BK was a rising star with the record to back it up. It’s easy to say he’s a bad coach. But what happened to make a good coach bad?
Personally I think he needs to review what made him successful in the past. Is there something different he’s doing today? Are there elements of his coaching in his past stops that he can apply now? The defense needs to be rehauled sooner rather than later. I do disagree with Greg that I wouldn’t wait. BK’s job is on the line, it’s not a blazing inferno yet, but for the first time it has to be getting warm. If I would BK I would try to put out some feelers for a new DC. I wouldn’t fire BVG until I had a replacement, but I wouldn’t wait until the end of the season (unless BVG showed a miraculous turnaround in the next few games–which is doubtful).
Finally, the team needs to reset now. Not after the end of the season, but now. The season starts now with Duke. They need to dominate Duke, then move on to the next team. They still have a prize to fight for, a NY Day 6 bowl. In their current state that is next to impossible so the turnaround must start today. Do I think that likely? Well, I’ll withhold judgment until they play Duke. How they respond this week will tell us all we need to know about where they are headed.