Notre Dame is back in action this weekend with an unsightly 1-2 record following another defensive meltdown last weekend. The Irish enter the contest unranked after sitting at #10 just three weeks ago. That feels like an eternity ago. The Irish will look to get back on track against equally unimpressive Duke – also owners of a 1-2 record. How will the Irish fare this week?
Let’s (attempt) to find out.
How’d I Do Last Week?
Hmmmm, not good. I was concerned with the tick plays from Michigan State and they did pull one over on Notre Dame with their swinging gate two point conversion (why didn’t that ever work for Willingham?) but other than that Dantonio left his bag of tricks at home. Instead, Michigan State just lined up and ran it right at Notre Dame.
I expected a lot more out of the Notre Dame defense. Fool me once, fool me twice, fool me for three straight years BVG. Needless to say from here on out I’ll be skeptical until the Irish string together multiple strong defensive performances against legit offenses.
As for my prediction? At least I wasn’t too far off on Notre Dame’s point total.
What Has Me Concerned this Week
- Every aspect of the Notre Dame defense. There isn’t a level of the defense or an aspect of it that is not concerning right now. Tackling is a nightmare. Players are out of position. Notre Dame is one of just two programs in the entire country to not have a sack. Instead of improving in year three under Brian VanGorder it’s approaching dumpster fire status. They can still get back on track but not much we’ve seen has shown that improvement is imminent.
- Notre Dame pressing. This team knows what its expectations were and knows that the playoffs are out the window just three games into the season. They also know they got knocked around for most of the MSU game. Trying too hard and pressing could lead to the kind of mistakes that let Duke hang around this weekend.
- The pass rush. Did I mentioned Notre Dame still doesn’t have a sack this season? That’s absurd. Duke is one of the worst teams in the country at protecting the quarterback. There is no excuse for the Irish to have a goose egg in the sack column after this week. NONE.
- Another slow start. Notre Dame had 7 points at half time last week. They had 0 points in the first quarter against Nevada two weeks ago. The Irish were able to score early against Texas and the 7 points they scored against the Spartans in the first half came early but they have been sluggish out of the gates. Notre Dame can’t let Duke hang around this weekend by starting slow again.
- Duke winning on the sidelines. Charlie Strong out-coached Brian Kelly week 1. Mark Dantonio out-coached Brian Kelly in week 3 David Cutcliffe is a good coach capable of doing the same.
What Doesn’t Have Me Concerned this Week
- Deshone Kizer. Kid is a baller. He wasn’t perfect last weekend but he damn near put the entire team on his back and brought them all the way back. He’s got a lot of room for improvement – mainly his pocket awareness and not taking as many sacks – but he is the best quarterback to come through Notre Dame in a while.
- A Michigan State hangover. Sometimes a big loss can get ya twice – the week it happens and the week after when the lingering effects impact you. I don’t think that will happen here this week
- Me jinxing the team. I’ve gone to two games this year. Notre Dame has lost both of those games. I don’t have plans to attend any more games in person this year so we should be all set.
- Duke’s defense. The Blue Devils defense isn’t bad, but it’s not great either. Notre Dame will put up a lot of points again this weekend.
Players to Watch
- Cole Luke – Luke picked the worst time to have the worst game of his Notre Dame career last weekend. Look for the senior to bounce back this week. He’s a much better player than the one we saw last weekend.
- Tevon Coney – Coney is getting the start at WILL but Greer Martini will get more reps and unless there is some improvement, Coney’s starting job could be on the line this weekend.
- Daelin Hayes – The kid might be the only chance of a pass rusher Notre Dame has this season. He played well against a tough Michigan State team. He needs to see more reps this week against a much weaker opponent.
- Chase Claypool – The Canadian frosh made one nice catch and nearly made a game altering ridiculous catch at the end of the first half. Claypool is still really raw but his pure talent is undeniable. He should be more involved in the passing game this weekend – perhaps out of a flex tight end position similar to what Alize Jones was expected to be this year.
- Jerry Tillery – Played his best game hands down last weekend. Notre Dame needs some – anyone – to step up on defense, maybe Tillery is that guy. He’s only a sophomore but he has future captain written all over him.
- Jarron Jones – It appears it’s taking Jones much longer to return to form following his injuries. I predicted 15 TFL for the big man in the summer. Through three games Jones has failed to register even one.
- Jay Hayes – I said in August when Kelly said Hayes’s high ankle sprain would be a couple week injury that those injuries always linger for big men. Three games into the season we’ve barely seen the gregarious junior.
- CJ Sanders – Find more ways to get this kid the ball. He’s a gamebreaker. Yes, he fumbled against Michigan State; but he still needs to get the ball in his hands often.
Prediction Time
Notre Dame is going to score points this weekend. Even as the defense has struggled, the offense has largely played well albeit with much room for improvement. We’ll see the Irish ground game get going again this weekend against a Duke defense that has been susceptible to the run. Something tells me though that Brian Kelly and Notre Dame are going to try to take some frustrations out on Duke and come out firing this week.
It would be prudent to work on the running game, but with morale likely low and the fan base getting impatient, Notre Dame needs a big win this weekend even if it comes against a team like Duke. I say let Kizer do his thing and air it out early to build up a lead and put the secondary in a position where they know what’s coming and can just play football.
For all of Brian Kelly’s support of VanGorder and his statements about getting more involved but not too involved on the defensive side of the ball, I still think we’ll see Kelly’s fingerprints on the defensive side of the ball and hopefully a simplified approach. This defense isn’t getting fixed overnight but sound tackling and a lack of big plays would be a good start.
This game could be very similar to the Pitt or Georgia Tech games from last year – games Notre Dame built big leads in and then let up a few late scores to make things look closer than they are. For now though, I’ll put my faith in the Irish offense and hope that the defense can keep Duke to just under the same point total (27) they combined to score against powerhouses Northwestern and Wake Forest.
Prediction: Notre Dame 42, Duke 24
Season Predictions v. Actual Outcomes
| Game | Opponent | Prediction | Outcome | Commentary |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Texas | W, 27-23 | L, 47-50 OT | One defensive stop in the 4th could have saved the prediction. |
| 2 | Nevada | W, 52-21 | W, 39-10 | Thought there'd be more scoring, but margin of victory wasn't far off. |
| 3 | Michigan State | W, 31-21 | L, 28-36 | Completely overestimated the defense's ability to slow the run game |
| 4 | Duke | W, 42-24 | L, 35-38 | I got nothing on this one. |
| 5 | @ Syracuse | W, 47-38 | W, 50-33 | Irish show some signs of life and for once an opponent doesn't score more than I predicted. |
| 6 | @ NC State | W, 42-35 | ||
| 7 | Stanford | |||
| 8 | Miami | |||
| 9 | @ Navy | |||
| 10 | Army | |||
| 11 | Virginia Tech | |||
| 12 | @ USC |
No, George, ND didn’t lose today. Bad Breath and Co. won’t accept that. Since they live with their heads up their asses they actually think ND won against Duke.
You know, George, I’m not an MD but I think I’ve discovered what ails the blind ass crowd on here. It must be hard to actually watch a game with shit on your face and in your eyes. That’s what happens when someone elects to live with their head up their ass.
Might also account for Bad Breath’s halitosis.
BMOC is just happy we only lost by 3 today
Yep, nothing to panic about. Just lost to Duke at home, that’s all.
Wow, the blindness of some here is just amazing!
Surprised to see Kelly #1 in Wins for active coaches
Comment that ’12 was lucky just silly –
He has gone 12-0 on every level – would anyone like to go back to program status before Kelly arrived ?
Defense awful but we have lost 2 games by total of 14 points? and non- call against Texas on head contact resulted in that loss
Big expectations over and out this year but panic not warranted (IMHO)
You would have to actually watch all the games in order to comment on 2012. And losing two games by 14 points is nothing to hang your hat on. Was that a joke? The MSU game was an ass kicking in reality. I don’t know how you define “panic” but ND is headed to another five loss season, same as two years ago, and that is unacceptable. But please don’t let that stop you from telling us how good things are.
Pitt game was luck. But I agree with the crux of your point. Some semantics there though.
George: 2012 was not “luck”. It was the well-deserved good fortune provided by the stout defensive play every time it was needed.
And that started with the leadership and influence Manti Te’o on his teammates’ play (…until that got blowed up real good in the month long run-up to the Alabama game).
Kelly owes Te’o for every year he got since.
Cole also spouted off about how we (the critical fans) don’t know what it is to feel pressure! Cole, buddy, you are playing a game and getting your college paid for doing it. A game! We middle class loudmouths are trying to be good fathers to three or four kids. No pressure there, right? Try serving in Iraq, or being an air traffic controller, a beat cop, a surgical nurse, or an inner city high school teacher, Luke. Or a single mom whose kids are NOT going to get an athletic scholarship to college. That’s pressure young man. And what do we really want after putting in our five days every week? Well, some of us would just like to put up our feet and watch Notre Dame play well on Saturday. It may seem sappy to you, but it means a lot to us.
As for you feeling a lot of pressure, my advice to you is this – stop “feeling” the pressure and start inflicting it on others! You have the God given talent to do it! And you are right about one thing – most of us don’t have that talent – we never did. That does not mean we can’t tell the difference between an overachieving team and an underachieving team. Now get back out there, play well, and be the leader you were meant to be.
Bruce Curme 77′ 82′
2015 was as good as it gets for ND football. 2012 was luck. 2016 is the norm. Flashbacks of CW years
The Irish aren’t done shitting the bed. The sheets will stay clean for a couple more weeks but there will be two or three more shit stains on the sheets in the near future. Just a poorly coached team. Simple as that. 45-24 Irish
Wish the Irish wre playing the game today, its Bruce Springsteens , RayCharles, Julio Iglesias and my Happy Birthday! I’ll be singing the Notre Dame Fighting Irish fight song all Day long! Irish 42 Devils 6
Jake W I’ve been wondering about Bilal since game one. He’s supposedly the superior athlete, faster and stronger than both Coney and Martini. The only explanation for him not being an option at this point is the coaches simply don’t trust him yet. Considering all the defensive struggles every player should be an option. If not then leave the core guys in and let them get game experience.
Couldn’t agree more with you, fightinmad35. Coney makes plays, and as far as I’ve seen, Morgan has been a magnet for fullbacks and linemen. That’d be fine if these collisions were happening in the hole or in the backfield, but he’s making contact with blockers 2-3 yards off of the line of scrimmage. He’s also either a step too slow or completely overpursues the play. So when he racks up 10 tackles (a statistically solid game), most of them are after a 5-yard gain. Martini gets lost a lot too. If anything, Coney is the only LB I have much faith in at this point. And where’s Bilal been? Would love to see if he can bring a spark. Overall, I think we’re dealing with more of an issue of guys thinking too much about their assignments in a complicated defense rather than just strapping up, sticking to basics, and hitting people.
If I was Duke I would run up tempo/no huddle and pass nearly every play vs the irish and see if they can stop them. I say the Irish win but hard to believe it will be pretty with that defense.
So after his worst game in an Irish uniform, Cole Luke spouts off about how he thinks it is “funny” and “entertaining” how the media and fans acknowledge that the ND defense currently ranks 104th in fourth down defense, 103rd in pass efficiency defense, 102nd in total defense, 100th in tackles for loss, 99th in rushing defense, 94th in scoring defense, 93rd in red zone defense, 89th in third down defense and 89th in turnovers gained. His comments are a microcosm of the entire program.
This is not a good Duke team. If ND gives up 24 points, regardless of how bad the defense has been playing, BVG should be escorted from the stadium by ND HR sans any severance.
Why is Coney fighting for his job? He had 9 tackles last week before he was replaced at halftime. Second most on team for the week…. Any coincidence MSU opened up a can of whoopass on ND running the ball down it’s throat AFTER CONEY CAME OUT OF GAME in the 3rd quarter??????… Remember the Texas game where Greer started? He got abused that first half. Does anyone else remember the defense stiffening up in the second half when Coney came in the game?? I’m absolutely baffled at what the coaching staff is looking at. Coney seems to be the most productive Will even though he is making mistakes but who isn’t? Leave him on the field!!!!