Regression to the mean is a common phrase used in our lives to describe the natural metaphysical pull towards homeostasis. When things are way up, they tend to over time come back down. When things are down, things tend to trend back up. It’s just the way the world works, things are never as bad, or as good, as they seem. This theory is being heavily tested during the current Notre Dame football season as the Irish continue to plunge lower and lower to the depths of football sadness. There is an expression in golf that states there is nothing worse than a two way miss. You never know where the ball is going so you can’t guard against any particular flaw. Notre Dame has got a two way miss going on with their football team right now. The defense, once one of the worst in all of college football and giving up 33 points a game, surrendered just 11 points in the last two contests, both of which Notre Dame lost. The offense, which was scoring 40 points a game, averaged 500 yards and was the clear savior of the Notre Dame team, tallied just 13 points total in the last two weeks and looks as bad as any offense in recent history. The Fighting Irish are lost right now and the only evidence that it will get better anytime soon is just the idea that nature says it has to.
Trending Up
Julian Love
Last week I wrote that the overall talent on the defense is trending up after watching the strong individual performances against Syracuse and NC State. The NC State results were rightly taken with the caveat of being played in Hurricane Matthew that eliminated any threat of the pass. There was no such caveat this weekend and true freshman cornerback Julian Love was particularly impressive. Love showed himself to be terrific in man coverage and especially solid in run support against a team where that is vital. Generally, I’m not the type of person to give a ton of credit to a player for being around to fall on a fumble, which Julian Love did late in the first quarter on a terrific punch out by Jonathan Bonner, but after watching whatever Nyles Morgan and Cole Luke were trying to do with the (alleged) fumble in the end zone, I’m willing to laud Julian Love for his effort on the recovery. Very bright future for this young man.
Tarean Folston
Following the performance of Dexter Williams against Nevada and the power and burst he showed, Folston was largely written off (my hand goes up on this one) as a key contributor to this Irish team this year. On Saturday he flashed, for the first time since his 54 yard run against Texas, as the player he was expected to be heading into this season. He was decisive, he showed his signature feel and instinct in the hole, his power through the hole and toughness to finish a run. It was vintage Folston in the first quarter. And as these things go, they completely went away from him in the second half, because 2016. He totaled 8 carries for 49 yards, which is good for 6.1 yards a carry. It was set up to be a Tarean Folston against Florida State type performance (21 for 120) and they gave it up. Because 2016.
Trending Down
DeShone Kizer
Last week I wrote about Kizer not doing such a hot job on third downs this year (4 of 15 against Stanford), which was a big reason why the offense was struggling in key moments throughout the season. I took some heat for this, and that’s fine. In fairness, he was carrying the team during the first five weeks, or at least the sole reason they were competitive. Kizer criticism was a tough sell at the time. That appears to no longer be the case. There is a debate to be had about whether Kizer should have been pulled in the 3rd quarter after a fourth down interception (his second of the game), but that has more to do with Zaire being checked out and not whether Kizer’s play warranted his being pulled from the game. And to be clear, it wasn’t just the interceptions. He began the game with two awful passes that resulted in a three and out. He took multiple terrible sacks, again. His body language was reminiscent of the Everett Golson 2012 game against Michigan, where he looked completely lost.
There is a lot of discussion about Kizer and his draft stock. He definitely has all the physical tools. But, things are definitely going backward. In Notre Dame’s five losses they’ve had the ball with a chance to take the lead or tie late in the 4th quarter and they’ve failed every time. Kizer has started 18 games at Notre Dame and they are 10-8. The idea that Kizer would be a top ten pick with a losing record in his last season at a major program is dubious. He appears to be suffering from a crisis of confidence where he isn’t totally sure what he is supposed to be doing at any given time and certainly benching him in a home game isn’t going to help that problem.
Fan Enthusiasm
I’m not totally sure “trending down” is a strong enough phrase. It’s probably more aptly described as in a free fall. It’s a tough time for Notre Dame fans right now; a good friend of mine who graduated from Notre Dame in 1992 sent me an email declaring he had “moved on to mens and women’s hoops” which of course invokes the old joke that Notre Dame is now a basketball school. I only write this here because it’s naive to think this sort of enthusiasm dip doesn’t effect the players. This isn’t a call to rally the fans or anything, I’ve been a fan of Notre Dame for 25 years now, and game atmosphere will always be what it is. Irish fans like to employ a wait and see approach; if the players give them something to cheer about, they’ll cheer, and if not, they won’t.
There isn’t really a larger point here except that the odds of things getting much better aren’t very good. The problem with being an independent is if the season goes bad early, then there is literally nothing to play for in terms of goals. And if Notre Dame drops two more games, which I think is likely at this point, there isn’t even a bowl game on the horizon. Hopefully the bye week does the team some good and settles the coaches in on a makeshift identity for what they want the team to be in the final five weeks. Something good needs to come of this season, right? Homeostasis and all that.
Worst season in ND football history. That’s all.
Why do we have a Mac level coach at nd?
2-10 versus ap top ten
Hey dummy… don’t you know that the MAC has long been referred to as “The Cradle of Coaches” ?
That the MAC conference that you refer to with such distain and idiocy is responsible for producing some of the top coaching Legions such as Bo Schembechler, Woody Hayes, Ara Parseghian and Urban Meyer?
( just to name a few)
Now can you please try to get through the rest of the week without making a further fool of yourself?
It’s not personal my friend
I’d love for the Irish to win this next game. But, sadly, I have my doubts. For whatever reason, I expect more of the same – running game struggles, weird play calling, lethargic QB play, bad penalties, a lack of physical play, missed tackles, and a confused, purple faced head coach.
Alley,
I second your concern about bad penalties (often a sign of just plain old LAZY play and poor technique) and weird play calling (which is inexplicable – but pretty chronic this year). The other things you listed don’t worry me too much though. I trust our QB, the running game is getting a little better, and the defense is missing less tackles while getting more physical.
As for a confused coach – I think more of Dave Wannstadt when he was with the Bears – now that was a confused looking coach!
GO IRISH!
Bruce GC
Greg,
I agree with your comments about Folston. He was having a great game and then we literally stop using him. And it’s not like we were playing catch up where we had to pass a lot. This adds to the list of head scratchers that Kelly brings to the table.
Josh Adams must be playing hurt or something. He has been an extremely disappointing RB through the first half of the season where I was seriously thinking there might be some records being broken by him when they were talking about this o-line being so solid and then having Kizer and our receivers for defenses to worry about too. At this point, I would like to see a combo of Folston and Williams at RB. We need to get Adams back to full health and get him back to last year’s running style of getting north and south and using his speed and strength to break through tackles. He keeps going down on first contact. Not good.
“The idea that Kizer would be a top ten pick with a losing record in his last season at a major program is dubious.”
Given the current, and overwhelming need for QB talent in the NFL, I doubt the “TEAM’S” won / loss record will play that much of a factor.
Especially when you consider that those who earn their living by evaluating talent have seen what he can do when he has a line that can pass protect and some resemblance of a running game.
(as was the case in 2015)
Kelly has admitted in a recent interview that not all of Kizer’s recent poor play is on his QB. Some is attributed to his WRs running improper routes and poor coaching. Kelly also mentioned that Josh Adams is playing hurt. IMO this team is really missing the departures of Fuller, Brown, Procise, and the emerging superstar and academic casualty TE Alize Jones. The replacements have been very average and inconsistent.
My nomination for trending off a cliff – Brian Kelly.
Just saw that he is “disappointed” that the AD had to give him the dreaded Vote of Confidence. Really? I still believe he is the best coach at ND since Holtz but that’s not saying a whole lot. His attitude and behavior have regressed dramatically this yr. I thought we were past this in 2012 but apparently we are not. This is another underachieving yr no matter how the year ends and that makes 2 out of the last 3 yrs I can say that.
Didn’t think this yr could get any uglier but it’s quite possible I could be very wrong about that.
Wow! Some of you guys give up on players pretty fast around here nowadays.
I still like Kizer a lot, though I admit he has had a couple of bad games, especially Stanford, and he’s missed some opportunities to be a “money” player on final drives in the fourth quarter. But I ask you this (and I’m not the first to ask it): Why does everything in this offense seem to always fall on the QB’s shoulders? I mean damn near EVERY play in every game? It reminds me of LSU – first hand Fournette his Heisman on international TV, then the “D’s” triple spy him on every play, then he fades to obscurity and their team can’t seem to win a big game, now he’s “back” and everything is great, etc. It’s all nonsense precipitated by the media people while they earn their million dollar salaries.
Same for Kizer. First draft the guy number one, then our team can’t seem to win the “big” game (or any game, it seems), so everyone kisses him goodbye – literally from the penthouse to the outhouse – any problem on our team that isn’t caused by Kelly is caused by Kizer, etc.
But when Kizer rebounds for two or three games in a row, and I believe he will, all the same people will be singing his praises!
This whole thing has been a mess – I’m not defending what happened this year (or I should say all the things that should have happened in August practices and apparently did not). But I’m definitely not giving up on Kizer, the defense, the “O” line, or even Coach Kelly yet. Wait it out…this whole thing has been screwed up worse than a sex change in a penitentiary… it can’t be fixed overnight. But maybe it can be fixed before the season ends…wait it out before you start calling for our best players to go pro.
Bruce GC 77′ 82′
Dominic,
Don’t think BK is ready to check out quite yet. Holtz was gone after He stupidily went for a field goal from the USC one instead of a line plunge, after He was ahead by 8 points with a buck and change on the board. Weis was gone after getting bombed by the hurricanes by a 51 to goose egg. Pretty hard acts to top. Lets ride it out to the end. BTW, this is the 50th Anniversary of the 51 to goose egg beating the Ara led Irish administered to the Trojans. I know they won’t be happy until they beat this, the way we are going Yoon will be our MVP.
Greg,
If you go by ticket prices the fans do seem to be in freefall. But at the Stanford game every seat was filled and the fans were quite vocal on every third down – and the defense responded pretty well – they usually got off the field. My brother thought there would be 5000 no-shows for Stanford – how wrong he was!
We are also going to the Miami game. Lord Almighty how I love a Halloween weekend game! They are the best! So if you are a fan, get yourself some “cheap” tickets and come on out. Only two things can happen – we either get better and win or we get worse and lose – again.
Pessimists look at the difficulties as obstacles – optimists look at them as opportunities. Be optimistic. The season is blown – for sure – but it is not over. And there is still fun to be had.
Bruce GC 77′ 82′
Not sure it’s fair to Kizer to have him trending down. The NCS game should be tossed in the analysis thanks to the weather and Kelly’s moronic game plan. So that only leaves the Stanford game as evidence that the offense has fallen off, and a one game sample is hardly a reason to panic regarding this young man’s abilities.
Still not sure we have seen the worst this team has to offer. I hope I am totally wrong but something tells me that it can get worse.
Fingers crossed I am wrong – Go Irish!!!!!
What can I its back to the lab and start all over again. Just 3 more wins and We are bowl bound and down!
Man alive, you hit it on the head with several things. Going from the bottom first, our fans have always been “classy and polite” and sorry I do not want to sing and sway to the Alma Mater after a loss and I am an alumnus. Our fans are great winners and don’t give up but our band takes the natural yelling out of the crowd on first and second down with that orchestrated crap they play. We should be yelling on defense on every down not just third down. I hope Kizer goes NFL, he has had five opportunities to lead us at the end of games and has failed miserably. Even against Texas we had the lead and the ball and he could not come through to put them away. Zaire had no chance with the field position against Stanford and I wish Kelly had left him in against NC State because he was pumped when he thought he was going to be playing more than one play. I don’t know what the hell Morgan was thinking on that fumble in the end zone by Stanford, it looked like we would get it for sure or at least the ball would could shoved over the end line and we would get it at the twenty. Why he tried to pick it up going backwards from the field of play I will never know.
i agree with you 1000% Ray. I just keep thinking – they are kids- still maturing. But BK job is to guide them and it starts and ends with him. So much talent on this team. Look back to Holtz era and how he coached- continually alternating players on both sides. If Lou had Kizer and Malik he would totally have two offenses and be unstoppable. BK sadly has to go. I just don’t know who else to bring in.
Dominic and Ray,
It is BK’s job to guide these kids. Absolutely. And if the defense is not ready to go in early September, BK should know it, and be held accountable, even if it was BVG’s fault directly. I have heard that in August the “D” spent more time in unit meetings than they spent on the practice field. Now I do not know if that is true, but if it is true that would explain a lot. Also, Coach Kelly should have had a real plan for getting Malik into the games – like an unbalanced line with three tight ends, or three tackles (a single wing, or something) – and that has to be done in August – not on the fly.
I still support Coach Kelly – but I’ll say this: If it takes until Halloween to get the team to jell, we will NEVER win a national championship again – in fact, we’ll NEVER get into a major bowl again. This season was a wash out for those goals after the MSU game. That was a “must win” that we ridiculously lost, and it was the third time we’ve started 1-2 under BK. That is NOT ACCEPTABLE at ND, period.
I believe Coach Kelly can and will learn from the mistakes with BVG and Malik, but I could be wrong – a lot of smart people think he’s a man who is incapable of change – a “Les Miles” type guy. I hope we do not see a repeat of this season EVER again. These kids work too hard for that.
Bruce GC
La Crosse, Indiana
Bruce,
I don’t know what Kelly did with BVG but he obviously was hands off with him. I just started watching Kelly’s pressers after the Duke game and it amazes me what BVG was doing in relation to coaching. The players were not spending a lot of time with the position coaches, and most of their time as a unit. So maybe Todd L. is a better coach than we think, but never got the chance to really coach his DBs up like they needed to be because of BVG.
Lynn,
You could be right about TL. I never thought of that. One thing is for sure, somebody has the secondary actually in position to make plays since BVG left, and they are starting to make some, and moreover, even when they get beat it seems like it’s not deep with no help anywhere in sight like at Texas and other early games.
To Mike and Brad – I know what you are fearing…that it could get even worse…we’ve put ourselves in a situation where every team on the schedule believes they can beat us. That isn’t going to help anything. But look, if both our “O” and our “D” play good games at the same time, as we all know they can, who will beat us then?
Bruce GC
La Crosse, Indiana