As part of the pre-season prediction series I’m going to throw out a bunch of over/under’s for offense, defense, and special teams to give people an idea of what type of team I expect Notre Dame to be.
Should note, this is projected over the 12 game regular season because, who knows about bowl games anymore?
- Wimbush rushing yards– 500.5 (my pick=under) He’ll have some big games, but they don’t want to run him like Kizer. He’ll come up just short.
- Wimbush total touchdowns passing/rushing-29.5 (over) Riley Ferguson for Memphis 36 total touchdowns last season. Wimbush can at least match that.
- Ian Book starts-0.5 (over) Book will start a game this season. Hope he’s ready.
- Josh Adams rushing yards– 1,199.5 (Under) He won’t get the carries, but he will also be close.
- Dexter Williams total carries– 99.5 (Under) This would put him right at eight carries a game, which makes sense to me given how I think they’ll use Tony Jones Jr.
- Tony Jones Jr. total receptions– 25.5 (over) I love me some Jones Jr. as a pass receiver. As a reference Theo Riddick caught 36 passes in 2012, and that sounds about right for Jones in 2017.
- Equanimeous St. Brown receiving touchdowns– 13 (over) I’m all about ESB in 2017. Give me all the stock.
- Number of catches for second leading wide receiver-40.5 (under) It’ll be receiver by committee aside from St. Brown.
- Alize Mack total receptions-50.5 (under) I’m doubting this pick since the last couple of days have been a Mack love fest from reporters and coaches, but I need to see it. I’m still skeptical.
- Chase Claypool yards per reception-18.5 (over) I don’t think he’ll catch a ton of passes, not this year (sadly), but when he does, it’ll be in chunks.
- Team rushing yards– 2,999.5 (over) There is no reason this shouldn’t happen! Why do I do this to myself?
- Total sacks allowed– 17.5 (over) In the Kelly era from 2010-2013 they gave up sacks in the middle teens. From 2014 on it’s been mid to high 20’s. They’ll be better, but a young running qb means trying to run out of sacks.
- Daelin Hayes total sacks– 9.5 (under) Double digit sacks is hard, and if he gets close he’ll start to face double teams.
- Jerry Tillery starts– 11.5 (under) He’s going to miss a game this year, hopefully it isn’t one of the big boys.
- Julian Okwara/Jay Hayes/Andrew Trumbetti sacks– 10.5 (over) Yep, I think so. Fun fact, none of those players recorded a sack last season. Also, Mike Elko might be a magician.
- Nyles Morgan tackles for loss– 13.5 (over) Oh yeah, the season of Morgan is coming and we will never look at him the same.
- Drue Tranquill tackles for loss– 10.5 (over) I’m doubling down on the linebacker group! Mike Elko for President!
- Starts for Isaiah Robertson– 0.5 (over) Partly because they want him in the lineup, partly because Nick Coleman will break down a little bit. He’s physically ready, which is the key here.
- Starts for Julian Love at safety-0.5 (over) You have to feel like this is where it is heading right?
- Total interceptions from the defensive backs– 12.5 (over) increased pressure + better playmakers + Elko magic= a bet on the over
- Justin Yoon field goal percentage– 75.5% (under) I’ve got some concerns here. 88% as a freshman, 76% last season. Didn’t kick in the spring. Things are going the wrong way.
- Tyler Newsome shanks followed by 60 yard beauties– 19 (over) It seems this is just how it’s going to be.
- Total special teams return touchdowns– 2.5 (over) CJ Sanders is a really good kickoff return guy, and this was with bad special teams coaching. Plus, I think Finke finds a way at least once this year on a punt.
- Touchdowns by freshmen– 2.5 (over) Between Michael Young, Brock Wright, and Cole Kmet, it’s going to happen.
- Times Notre Dame runs for six yards then punts after two straight incompletions– 20 (over) Welcome to the 2017 season!
26. five(over) false starts by the O-line
27. two (over) Failure to get the play in resulting in a time out
against
temple only
“…this is projected over the 12 game regular season because, who knows about bowl games anymore….”
Yes. Because in this most money-grubbing era w the most bowl game opportunities/excuses in the history of college football, it’s crazy to presume in this preseason that ND might qualify for one.
Think about that.
#15 is laughable
Not sure if Julian Love’s future is at safety. I know he might be needed there this year, but next year keep him at CB.
There is a lack of depth at CB and I think Derrick Allen starts day 1 next year, especially if he’s an early enrollee. He’s special.
With the addition of Alohi Gilman. Plus, Jalen Elliott, Nick Coleman, Devin Studstill, and Isaiah Robertson.
Gilman is not eligible to play this fall.
Sorry — I was talking about the depth of safety next year and why I don’t think his future is at safety.
Gregor, looks like some of your picks were made under the influence, some dreaming and some fully conscience. I hope you are correct on most of them.
Hmm. I agree with most of your picks. Smythe is ahead of Mack on the depth chart. Let’s hope we’re wrong about him. And rushing yards? Hell, why not? 🙂 However:
I don’t think Book will start one, because I don’t think Wimbush will get injured.
I’ll take the under on Jones’s catches as well.
I think we’re going to do better on sacks allowed than last year’s OL might suggest.
Tillery might miss a game, but I think we’re going to play 13 this season.
Robertson will see time, but I don’t think he’ll start.
I think Yoon is fine, now that he’s allowed his knee to heal.
Newsome ain’t going to kick more than 19 60-yard punts, nohow, noway, whether following shanks or not.
I’m taking the under on TDs by freshmen. Too many good upperclassmen on the field.
And that last one? C’mon. 🙂
Correction: Too many good sophomores and upperclassmen on the field.
Smythe is ahead on the depth chart because Long is a run first OC. Smythe is a better blocker. Don’t read too much into the 2 deep at TE.