Although Notre Dame (0-0) is coming off a 10-2 season, there will be plenty of question marks surrounding the team as the Irish lost nine players to the NFL draft and a handful more to NFL free agency. Wisconsin graduate transfer, Jack Coan earned the starting role at quarterback for the Irish, and Defensive Coordinator, Marcus Freeman will be making his first appearance on the sideline for the blue and gold.
The Seminoles (0-0) are returning from a disappointing 2020 season where they finished 3-6 overall. Florida State fans are hoping for better results in Head Coach, Mike Norvell’s second year.
Point Spread & Over/Under
According to Odds Shark, the early betting line opened with Notre Dame as an 11-point favorite before settling down to where it sits now, at -7.5. Question marks surrounding the status of who will be starting under center for the Seminoles may have the point spread on the move again right before kickoff.
On Monday, coach Norvell listed senior transfer quarterback, McKenzie Milton, and sophomore, Jordan Travis as “co-starters”. Norvell stated that he will list the starting quarterback when he feels it is the appropriate time. The uncertainty at quarterback for the Seminoles makes the downward line movement here all the more interesting.
Why did the line decrease and not increase? There could be other factors as to why the early sharp money is on Florida State.
For example, the Irish may have named its starting quarterback, but this will be Coan’s first start for Notre Dame. The Irish are also replacing four starting players along the offensive line. Meanwhile, the Seminoles upgraded their defensive line by adding Georgia transfer, Jermaine Johnson, and are returning their top three leading tacklers at linebacker.
On the money line (ML), the Irish are coming in at -280. The total on this game began at 56.5 while most sportsbooks now have it hovering around 55.5.
Key Injuries
Coach Brian Kelly announced this week that Notre Dame linebacker, Marist Liufau was lost for the season due to a lower-leg injury and will be replaced by JD Bertrand
Florida State has not yet listed any players to the injury report.
Betting Trends
- Notre Dame is 14-1 straight up (SU) in their last 15 games against teams in the Atlantic Coast Conference.
- Against the spread (ATS), Notre Dame is 4-2 in their last six games.
- Florida State has gone over the total in six of their last 8 games.
- The total has gone over the total five of the Seminoles last seven week-one games.
- Notre Dame defeated Florida State 42-26 last season.
- The total has fallen under the total in nine of the Irish’s previous 13 week-one games.
Behind Enemy Lines: Week One
Toledo (0-0) vs Norfolk State (0-0) – N/A Oregon State (0-0)at Purdue-7 (0-0)
Line opened at -6 before moving to -7. Meanwhile, the total jumped a whopping four points from 63.5 to 67.5. These teams have faced just one other time with the Beavers winning, 22-14 back in 1967. Junior quarterback, Jack Plummer will start the season for the Boilermakers. He is 2-7 as the starter while passing for over 2500 yards and 19 touchdowns. Oregon State has not won a road game against a Big Ten/ Midwest opponent since 1978. They have lost their last 15 attempts.
#19 Penn State (0-0) at #12 Wisconsin -4.5 (0-0)
Most books have the Badgers still sitting at -4.5, but BETNOW has them as high as -6. The total on this game opened at 53.5, but has since dropped to 50. Wisconsin won their last five season openers. PSU has beaten the Badgers four straight times. The total has gone over in their last six meetings.
Miami (OH) (0-0) at #8 Cincinnati -23 (0-0)
The Bearcats opened as a 19-point favorite before being juiced up to -23. The total moved up one notch from 50 to 51. The Bearcats will be replacing former defensive coordinator, Marcus Freeman with Mike Tressel. The total has remained under in six of the last seven matchups between these two programs. Cincinnati has beaten the RedHawks the last 14 times they have met dating back to 2006.
#10 North Carolina -6 (0-0) at Virginia Tech (0-0)
The line on this game has remained close to where it opened. UNC was -6 and is currently -5.5. The total is down from 67.5 to 64 at nearly every sportsbook. In their last five meetings against Virginia Tech, the Tarheels are 1-4 SU. The total has gone under in 10 of the last 14 head-to-head matchups. Senior wide receiver, Beau Corrales will miss this game for the Tar Heels due to a lower-body injury.
San Jose State (1-0) at #15 USC -14 (0-0)
The Trojans opened as a 17-point favorite before dropping to -14. The total is up from 57.5 to 59.5 at most books. San Jose State has lost 14 straight games to teams in the Pac-12 conference. Meanwhile, the Trojans have won their last 10 games against opponents in the Mountain West Conference. USC will enter this game with a ton of experience as they are returning 16 starters. San Jose State defeated Southern Utah last week, 45-14.
Marshall -2.5 (0-0) at NAVY (0-0)
The Thundering Herd opened at -3.5 before settling in at -2.5. The total has climbed from 45.5 to 47.5 at some books. Marshall and Navy are both 1-4 ATS in their last five games. Navy head coach, Ken Niumatalolo plans to wait until his offense’s first, opening drive to reveal the starting quarterback.
William and Mary (0-0) at Virginia (0-0)-N/A
N. Illinois (0-0) at Georgia Tech -18 (0-0)
The Yellow Jackets opened at -13.5 before shooting up to as high as 18.5-point favorites. However, the total dropped from 58.5 to 57 across the board. The Huskies have lost their previous six games SU to an ACC opponent. NIU is also 2-4 ATS in their last six games. In their last 18 games, Georgia Tech has gone over the total in 12 of them.
Stanford (0-0)at Kansas State -2.5 (0-0)
This game looks to be closely contested as the Wildcats remain a small favorite at -2.5. The total has not budged much at all as it opened at 52.5 and currently sits at 53. The Cardinal has struggled as of late ATS while covering in just 5 of their last 17 games. However, Stanford has covered the spread in their last five games against teams in the Big 12 conference. Kansas State has been on a tear ATS while covering 12 of their last 18 games. The Wildcats are 2-6 in their last eight games against a Pac-12 opponent.
*Notre Dame’s 2021 opponents listed in bold.
