About Last Week
Notre Dame welcomed Marshall to Notre Dame Stadium last weekend for a four-round bout only to be submitted in the final round, 26-21. As expected, unfortunately, Tyler Buchner led the Irish in rushing for the second consecutive week with 44 yards on 13 carries. He also exited the game with a shoulder injury on his non-throwing arm that will likely keep him out for the season. There was not much of a passing game though. Buchner finished with 201 yards for just 6.3 yards per completion and two interceptions. Most were check-downs and glorified handoffs. Those kinds of passes will not keep defenses honest. Drew Pyne came in relief completing three of six passes for 20 yards (3.3 avg) including a touchdown and one interception.
The Irish defense did what it could limiting Marshall to 145-yards passing, but it did surrender 219-yards rushing. Two explosion runs by Marshall amounted to 72 yards alone. Howard Cross III led Notre Dame with 11 tackles.
Key Injuries
Notre Dame
Senior WR Avery Davis is lost for the season due to a torn ACL, and TE Mitchell Evans is out indefinitely due to an injured foot. In addition, DL Osita Ekwonu (Achilles) and TE Cane Berrong (knee) are both questionable.
California
No injuries to report.
Betting Trends
- California is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing as the underdog.
- The total has gone UNDER in 7 of California’s last 10 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Notre Dame’s last 5 games when playing as the favorite.
- Notre Dame is 4-0 all-time against California
- Notre Dame is 6-0 SU in its last 6 games against an opponent in the Pac-12 conference.
- Notre Dame is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games.
- Notre Dame is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games played in week 3.
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Betting Line and Over/Under Total
California (2-0) (1-1 ATS) at Notre Dame -10.5 (0-2) (1-1 ATS)
Odds Shark’s early betting line opened with Notre Dame as 12.5-point favorites before the line fell to -11 where it sits now at most books. A late fourth and goal stop by California’s defense solidified the Golden Bears, 20-14 win over UNLV last weekend. The Cal defense held the Rebels’ offense to just 309-total yards. California’s offense could only manage 370 yards of its own including a paltry 92-yards rushing, but it was enough to award them victory.
Meanwhile, in the mid-west, Notre Dame was upset by a three-touchdown underdog. The Irish offense suffered some self-inflicted wounds including three turnovers with one interception that was taken back for a score. However, the Notre Dame defense could not return the favor as they finished the game with zero turnovers and three sacks.
This week, the Irish defense should be able to keep California off of the scoreboard. Drew Pyne will lead the way at quarterback on offense for Notre Dame. He is a risk-taker throwing the ball, but that may be what Notre Dame needs in this spot with its back against the wall.
Saturday’s game will make or break the Irish’s spirit. A loss here could jeopardize the team’s psyche and recruiting interests. This is a money game for Notre Dame both literally and figuratively. Ironically, most of the Irish faithful, including the tea,m will also be wearing green for this game. Unfortunately, the Golden Bears may have picked a bad weekend to visit South Bend.
PICK: Notre Dame
Behind Enemy Lines Week 3:
PICKS-WIN/LOSS on the year: (7-9) (7-9 ATS)
Toledo (2-0) (1-1 ATS) at #2 Ohio State -31.5 (2-0) (1-1 ATS)
Last week, Ohio State defeated Arkansas State, 45-12. The Buckeyes amassed over 500-yard of total offense. C.J. Stroud tallied 351-yards passing with four touchdowns and zero interceptions. Toledo bullied UMass, 55-10. UMass was held to 48-yards passing. Toledo is 7-1 ATS in its lasteight8 games on the road. Ohio State is 10-0 SU in its lastten0 games versus an opponent in the Mid-American conference. The line and total are strong across the board at -31.5 and 61 respectively. PICK: Ohio State
Marshall -17 (2-0) (2-0 ATS) at Bowling Green(0-2) (0-2 ATS)
Marshall conquered Notre Dame last week, 26-21, and Bowling Green lost a seven-overtime thriller to Eastern Kentucky, 59-57. Marshall is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games against Bowling Green. The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Marshall’s last 8 games. Bowling Green is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games against an opponent in the Sun Belt Conference. Marshall opened at -18 before the line dropped a spot to -17. The total also fell from 54 to 52.5. PICK: Marshall
North Carolina (3-0) (1-2 ATS) Bye week.
Last week, beat Georgia State 35-28. Next game: 9/24 vs. Notre Dame.
#12 BYU (2-0) (2-0 ATS) at #25 Oregon -3.5 (1-1) (1-1 ATS)
It took two overtimes, but BYU placed the Baylor Bears into hibernation by winning, 26-20. On paper, the Bears should have won the game. Baylor held the ball nine minutes longer than the Cougars and held BYU to just 83-yards rushing, but games are won on the field. BYU is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games against an opponent in the Pac-12 conference. BYU is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing as the underdog. The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oregon’s last 5 games when playing as the favorite. The line has remained steady with Oregon -3.5. The total is hovering around 57.5. PICK: Oregon
Stanford (1-1) (0-2 ATS) Bye week.
Last week, lost to USC 41-28. Next game: 9/24 at Washington.
North Texas (2-1) (1-2 ATS) at UNLV -3(1-1) (2-0 ATS)
UNLV fell at California in week two, 20-14. The Rebels’ defense limited the Golden Bears to under 100-yards rushing. Meanwhile, North Texas smothered Texas Southern, 59-27. The Mean Green racked up over 600-yards of offense including 348-yards rushing. North Texas is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games against an opponent in the Mountain West conference. North Texas is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 games on the road. The total has gone OVER in 6 of Nevada-Las Vegas’ last 8 games. UNLV opened at -1 before becoming 3-point favorites. The total also shot up a whopping 5 points from 57 to 62. PICK: North Texas
Purdue (1-1) (1-1 ATS) at Syracuse – PK(2-0) (2-0 ATS)
Last week, Syracuse tamed UConn, 48-14. Orange quarterback, Garrett Shrader went 20-23 for 292 yards and 3 touchdowns. Purdue blanked Indiana State, 56-0. The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Purdue’s last 5 games against an opponent in the Atlantic Coast Conference. Purdue IS 4-1 SU in its last 5 games. Syracuse is 1-7 SU in their last 8 games against an opponent in the Big Ten Conference. This line is firm at even and the total is strong at 58.5. PICK: Syracuse
Louisiana Tech (1-1) (1-1 ATS) at #5 Clemson -34 (2-0) (1-1 ATS)
Clemson handled Furman last week, 35-12. Louisiana Tech whacked SF Austin, 52-17. Louisiana Tech is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games. Louisiana Tech is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road. Clemson is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games. The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Clemson’s last 5 games. Clemson opened -31 before becoming -34. The total fell 3 notches from 55.5 to 52.5. PICK: Louisiana Tech
Navy (0-2) (0-1 ATS) Bye week.
Last week, lost to Memphis 37-13. Next game: 9/24 at East Carolina.
Maine (0-1) (0-1 ATS) at Boston College -29.5(0-2) (0-2 ATS)
Boston College fell at Virginia Tech last week, 27-10. The Golden Eagles were limited to 4 yards rushing. Maine was bleached by Colgate at home, 21-18. Maine is 3-17 SU in its last 20 games on the road. Boston College is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games. The line and total are holding steady at 29.5 and 48.5. PICK: Boston College
Fresno State (1-1) (0-2 ATS) at #7 USC -12(2-0) (2-0 ATS)
Last week, USC chopped down Stanford’s tree, 41-28 while racking up over 500 yards of offense. The Bulldogs surrendered a fourth-quarter lead falling to Oregon State, 35-32. Fresno State is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games against an opponent in the Pac-12 Conference. The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Fresno State’s last 6 games. USC 12-0 SU in its last 12 games against an opponent in the Mountain West Conference. USC fell from -14 to -12. However, the total rose drastically from 68.5 to 74. PICK: Fresno State
