About Last Week
Quarter. Back. Notre Dame needed both last weekend against Stanford. The Irish would have benefitted from a first or second quarter do-over as they were shut out in the first half. They could have also used an upgrade at quarterback, as Drew Pyne was simply not getting it done. Pyne finished the game with 151 yards passing and one touchdown, but that is not including the two touchdowns he left off of the board due to overthrown passes. Head coach Marcus Freeman generically referenced “lack of execution” as the main reason for Notre Dame’s loss to Stanford. However, anyone watching the game could connect the dots as to what Freeman was alluding to. Those faulty throws by Pyne defined “lack of execution”.
Key Injuries
Notre Dame
Senior WR Avery Davis and TE Kevin Baumann are lost for the season (ACL). QB Tyler Buchner is out for the season (shoulder). TE Cane Berrong is out indefinitely (knee). RB Jadarian Price is out for the season (Achilles). DB Jaden Mickey is questionable (abductor strain).
UNLV
Running Back, Aidan Robbins is questionable (knee). Wide Receivers, Jeff Weimer (shoulder) and Kyle Williams (foot) are day-to-day (shoulder). Quarterback, Doug Brumfield day-to-day (concussion).
Betting Trends
- Notre Dame is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games against an opponent in the Mountain West Conference.
- The total has gone under in 4 of Notre Dame’s last 6 games.
- UNLV is 2-10 SU in its last 12 games on the road.
- First-ever meeting between Notre Dame and UNLV
Point Spread and Over / Under Total
UNLV (4-3) (4-3 ATS)at Notre Dame -24 (3-3) (3-3 ATS)
UNLV was invaded by Air Force last week, 42-7. The Falcons carried the ball 76 times for 406 yards. The Air Force defense limited the UNLV offense to 179 total yards. However, the Rebels played without its starting quarterback, Doug Brumfield, who was out due to a concussion, and UNLV running back Aidan Robbins exited the game prematurely with a knee injury.
In the mid-west, Notre Dame did not fair much better as the Irish fell to Stanford, 16-14. Notre Dame’s defense held its own for the most part limiting Stanford to less than 400 yards of total offense. The Cardinal tallied just 97-yards rushing on 42 carries (2.3 YPC).
The problem was passing the football, as Notre Dame could only manage 151 yards through the air. The solution was on the ground, but it came too late. As a committee, the Irish finished with 150 yards rushing on 34 carries (4.4 YPC). The Irish also lost two fumbles and the time-of-possession battle by 13 minutes.
Notre Dame is holding steady at -24, and the total is firm at 49.5. The key to success this week will be the ground game. It should feel like running a marathon for the Irish running backs. Anything less will be unacceptable. PICK: Notre Dame
Behind Enemy Lines Week 8:
PICKS-WIN/LOSS on the year: (39-26) (32-33 ATS)
Iowa (3-3) (3-3 ATS) at #2 Ohio State -29 (6-0) (3-2-1 ATS)
Ohio State will be rested after a couple of bye weeks. Last week they celebrated after having crushed the Spartans the week prior, 49-20. Buckeyes’ quarterback, C.J. Stroud finished with 361-yards passing and six touchdowns. The same cannot be said for Iowa as they lost at Illinois, 9-6. Iowa was held to 52-yards rushing on 30 carries. Ohio State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Iowa. The total has gone under in 6 of Iowa’s last 7 games. The Buckeyes opened at -28 before moving to -29.5. The total is strong at 49 across the board. PICK: Ohio State
Marshall (3-3) (2-4 ATS) at James Madison -13 (5-1) (5-1 ATS)
Last week, the Cajuns fried Marshall, 23-13. The Herd was limited to 276 total yards of offense. James Madison fell out of the top 25 after losing at Georgia Southern, 45-38. The Dukes were outscored by 10 points in the second half which cost them the game. Marshall is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games on the road. James Madison is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games. The total has gone under in 5 of Marshall’s last 6 games. James Madison opened at -11 before climbing two spots to -13. The total dropped from 54.5 to 53. PICK: James Madison
Washington-7.5 (5-2) (4-3 ATS) at California (3-3) (3-3 ATS)
Cal was stampeded at Colorado last week by the Buffalos, 20-13. The Golden Bears were held to 35 yards rushing on 22 carries. The Huskies devoured Arizona, 49-39. Washington quarterback, Michael Penix Jr. completed 36 of 44 passes for 516 yards and four touchdowns. Washington is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games against California. The total has gone under in 4 of Washington’s last 5 games when playing on the road against California. Cal is 6-0 SU in its last 6 games at home. Washington opened at -9 before the line fell to -7.5. The total rose from 55 to 57. PICK: Washington
#22 North Carolina (6-1) (3-3-1 ATS) – bye week
The Tar Heels took care of business at Duke, 38-35. UNC quarterback, Drake Maye threw for 380 yards and 3 touchdowns. Next game vs. Pitt.
BYU -6.5 (4-3) (2-5 ATS) at Liberty (6-1) (3-4 ATS)
Last week, the Cougars were caged by Arkansas as BYU lost at home, 52-35. The Razorbacks racked up a whopping 644 yards of total offense. Liberty rallied late to defeat Gardner Webb, 21-20. BYU is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games. The total has gone under in 5 of BYU’s last 6 games against an opponent in the Independents (FBS) Conference. Liberty is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games against an opponent in the Independents (FBS) Conference. BYU opened at -5 before moving to -6.5. The total is hovering around 58. PICK: BYU
Arizona State (2-4) (3-3 ATS) at Stanford -3 (2-4) (2-4 ATS)
The Sun Devils upset #21 Washington last week, 45-38. The Huskies tallied 458 yards of total offense in defeat. The Cardinal added its first win of the year against a FBS opponent winning a nailbiter at Notre Dame, 16-14. Arizona State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road. The total has gone over in 4 of Arizona State’s last 6 games against an opponent in the North Division. Stanford is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games against an opponent in the South Division. The line and total are firm at -3 and 55.5 respectively. PICK: Stanford
#14 Syracuse (6-0) (5-1 ATS) at #5 Clemson -13.5 (7-0) (4-3 ATS)
Syracuse took care of business at home to remain undefeated beating #15 NC State, 24-9. The Orange defense limited NC State to 95 yards on 38 carries. Clemson won its seventh game in a row against Florida State, 34-28. The Seminoles racked up 460 yards of offense, but it was not enough. Syracuse is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games against Clemson. The total has gone under in 6 of Syracuse’s last 7 games against an opponent in the Atlantic Coast Conference. Clemson is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games. Clemson is hovering around 13.5 and the total is firm at 51.5 across the board. PICK: Syracuse
Houston -3 (3-3) (2-4 ATS) at Navy (2-4) (4-2 ATS)
Houston will be returning from a bye week as the Cougars head to Annapolis, Maryland to take on Navy. Last week, the Midshipmen lost a shootout at SMU, 40-34. Navy tallied 510 yards of offense including 372 yards on the ground. Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games against Navy. The total has gone over in 5 of Houston’s last 5 games on the road. Navy is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games. Houston is firm at -3 at every book and the total is holding steady at 53. PICK: Navy
Boston College (2-4) (1-5 ATS) at #13 Wake Forest -21 (5-1) (5-1 ATS)
Last week the Eagles were recovering on a bye week after having had their feathers stripped by Clemson, 31-3 the week prior. In the game against the Tigers, Boston College quarterback, Phil Jurkovec completed 19 of 40 passes for 188 yards. Wake Forest should also enter this game well rested from a bye week of its own. In their last game against Army, the Demon Deacons won the battle and the war, 45-10. Boston College is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games. Boston College is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games against an opponent in the Atlantic Division. The total has gone under in 10 of Wake Forest’s last 11 games against Boston College. Wake Forest is -21 across the board and the total is also sitting nicely at 61.5. PICK: Wake Forest
#12 USC (6-1) (5-2 ATS) – bye week
Utah scored with 48 seconds remaining in the 4th quarter including a 2-poinnt conversion to defeat the Trojans, 43-42. It was an offensive street fight as both teams racked up over 500 yards of offense. Next game at Arizona.
*Notre Dame’s 2022 opponents listed in bold.
I find them to be difficult to watch, David. But I have watched.
BGC 77 82
1) ND’s weak link is the offense. The defense can be a LOT better, but the offense is the side of the ball where games are being lost.
2) Until Rees puts together an efficent offensive game plan for Pyne to quarterback, and optimizes his avaialble personnel to execute it, it’s impossble to say that Pyne is inept or needs to be replaced. He needs to be put in a position where he can and should succeed before deciding he’s just a failure.
3) By the same logic, Pyne needs to deliver a strong performance *individually* on gameday (good reads, strong, accurate throws, to more than just one or two targets) before anyone can conclude that it is Rees who isn’t cutting it with play calling and personnel use.
Yes, Rees has much responsibility in recruiting the QB. And no, Pyne does not have the arm to throw the ball on a rope downfield for 50 yards.
And that kind of ‘interdependence of variables’ is what makes ANY final assessment at best imperfect.
And at worst, outright incorrect.
And after aaaaall that….the defense needs a lot of improvement.
This mess won’t be resolved by a simplistic, “fire that guy” whim.
It would be extremely difficult for ND to compete and defeat any of the current teams ranked in the top 10 regardless of who is the starting QB. You can’t beat today’s elite teams unless you have a highly skilled quarterback. Unfortunately Notre Dame doesn’t possess anyone on there roster that meets that criteria. It has been an issue at ND for many years now. Until that changes ND won’t be winning any meaningful games.
I’m not sure what approach or action that conclusion promotes….?
ND is still obligated to show up for the rest of the schedule this year.
Yes David, and the receivers need to help Pyne by catching anything they can touch with both hands. Wimbush needed that help in 2917, and got it in the second half of the season, culminating in a gator(?) Bowl win against LSU. Improvement matters.
BGC 77 82
If the WRs don’t catch catchable balls, that’s not on Pyne.
And no one has been yelling to bench any of the WRs…..since Mayer has been getting 70% of the balls.
Are you watching this year’s games?