In 2022, Notre Dame sailed by Navy, 35-32. The Irish led 35-13 at halftime before allowing the Midshipmen to score 19 unanswered points in the second half. Notre Dame quarterback Drew Pyne completed 17 of 21 passes for 269 yards and four touchdowns. Irish running back Audric Estime rushed for 49 yards on just 8 carries (6.1 YPC).
Those numbers seem solid, but it was Navy’s offense that led the way. The Midshipmen outgained the Irish 363 yards to 335. Navy’s ground attack racked up 255 yards while averaging 5.5 yards per carry.
That was then; this is now.
For 2023, Navy will have a new captain steering its ship as Navy’s defensive coordinator, Brian Newberry, was promoted to head coach in place of Ken Niumatalolo. That move didn’t ripple the tide, but Navy’s hire at offensive coordinator may have. Grant Chestnut left Kennesaw State for Navy with intentions of inserting new wrinkles into the offense’s playbook. This year opposing defenses should expect more passing from the Midshipmen and a hybrid-ground attack. The option may become just that, an option.
Notre Dame will have a new look of its own as well.
Two of the most significant changes will come on the offensive side of the ball as Gerad Parker will replace Tommy Rees as offensive coordinator, and Sam Hartman will put a stop to the quarterback carousel. Parker will likely still be finding his way as an OC as he has had limited time at that position, but fortunately for him, he will have a veteran college quarterback at his disposal. Hartman comes to Notre Dame with a ton of experience and many accolades. While at Wake Forest, the three-time captain was named to the All-ACC team and was a Brian Piccolo Award recipient. Before his first snap at Notre Dame, Hartman has already been named to the Maxwell Award watch in recognition of being considered one of the nation’s best college football players.
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Another significant change will be replacing the 2022 Special Teams Coach of the Year, Brian Mason, as he decided to take his knowledge to the Indianapolis Colts. It’ll be difficult for anyone to replicate the success Notre Dame had on special teams last season under Mason, but Marty Biagi’s resume as a two-time finalist for Special Teams Coach of the Year shows the potential. Biagi will trade in his Ole Miss stripes for Notre Dame gold.
Notre Dame will also be replacing Offensive Line coach Harry Heistand with Joe Rudolph. Rudolph arrives in South Bend with 20 years of coaching experience after serving tours at Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Wisconsin, and Virginia Tech. As if that was not enough, the Irish will also have a change in the weight room. Fred Hale will replace strength and Conditioning Coach Matt Balis. Before being a member of the strength staff for the Irish, Hale was the head Strength and Conditioning coach at Eastern Michigan.
Key Injuries
Notre Dame
- TE Kevin Bauman and DE Aiden Gobaira are out for the season (ACL). TE Eli Raridon is questionable (knee).
Navy
- QB Tedros Gleaton is questionable (academics). WR Nathan Kent will not play Saturday (knee).
Betting Trends
- Navy is 6-3 ATS in their last 9 games against Notre Dame
- The total has gone over in 6 of Navy’s last 8 games
- The total has gone over in 7 of Notre Dame’s last 7 games
- The total has gone over in 9 of Notre Dame’s last 12 games against Navy
- Notre Dame is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
- Notre Dame defeated Navy 52-27 in Ireland in 1996 and 50-10 in 2012
Betting Line & Over / Under Total
Navy (0-0) (0-0 ATS) at #13 Notre Dame -20.5 (0-0) (0-0 ATS)
Last year, Notre Dame defeated Navy 35-32 and has not lost to the Midshipmen since their 24-17 loss at Jacksonville in 2012. With so many changes for both teams, it is difficult to project what kind of performance will be displayed in Ireland this time. Notre Dame will be donning a potential Heisman candidate at quarterback in Sam Hartman, and a stable of new coaches. The Irish will also be replacing two captains from last season in tight end, Michael Mayer, and defensive end, Isaiah Foskey.
Navy will enter the game with Brian Newberry as its new skipper and a new play caller at offense coordinator. Time will tell if Navy elects to pass the ball more than normal. Who will be throwing the ball for Navy is also a question mark, as a heated quarterback competition is still unfolding. The two candidates are senior Tai Lavatai and sophomore Blake Horvath.
Since day one as Notre Dame’s head coach, Marcus Freeman preached establishing the ground game, but he did not have a Sam Hartman at quarterback. That said, he allowed Drew Pyne to throw the ball 21 times in 2022 against Navy. Fans should expect that, and some, especially if the Irish fail to move the ball on the ground for the second consecutive year. Notre Dame carried the ball 34 times for 66 yards (1.9 YPC) last year, including a long of 28.
Navy, on the other hand, had no issue running the ball. They had explosive runs of 50 and 26 yards while carrying the ball 46 times for 255 yards and two scores. Navy also completed 6 of 13 passes for 108 yards and two touchdowns. With Grant Chestnut as offensive coordinator, it is safe to say there will be more than 13 passing attempts on Saturday. In 2021, Chestnut helped Kennesaw State’s quarterback, Xavier Shepherd, become an All-American. Shepherd set school records in a season for passing yards and passing touchdowns. He also led the FCS in rushing touchdowns.
Notre Dame is -20.5 across the board, and the total has risen from 49 to 51.5. Notre Dame has the edge across the board in this game. The Irish are simply bigger, stronger, and faster. This game will come down to focus and execution. Is this a sightseeing tour or a business trip for the Irish? Will the Irish be thinking of its rematch against Ohio State in a few weeks, or will the team be determined to set the tone for the 2023 season? Marcus Freeman should have a growth spurt in his second year as head coach, and his veteran quarterback likely won’t allow a second-half shutout like the Irish offense suffered in 2022.
PICK: Notre Dame
Behind Enemy Lines Week 13
PICKS-WIN/LOSS last year: 62-61-1 ATS
#6 USC- 30.5 (0-0) (0-0 ATS) at San Jose State (0-0) (0-0 ATS)
USC finished 2022 with an 11-3 record, including a 46-45 loss to Tulane in the Cotton Bowl. For 2023, the Trojans will return Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams at quarterback, and Lincoln Riley will enter his second season as head coach. Offense was not a problem for USC last season, but the same can not be said for its defense. The Trojans’ defense ranked near the bottom in yards allowed per play (6.5) and ranked 94th in scoring defense (29.2 points per game).
San Jose State finished 7-5 in 2022 with a 41-27 loss to Eastern Michigan in the Idaho Potato Bowl. Quarterback Chevan Cordeiro will return for his sixth season of college football and hopes to lead the Mountain West in passing yet again. Defensively, the Spartans will be replacing their entire front three, but its secondary will be the strength of the defense.
San Jose State is 0-7 ATS in its last 7 games. Spartans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against an opponent in the Pac-12. The total has gone over in 8 of USC’s last 8 games. USC is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games played in week one.
PICK: San Jose State
*Notre Dame’s 2023 opponents are listed in bold.
