Notre Dame finished the 2023 season with a 40-8 victory over #19 Oregon State in the Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl. While earning an invitation to any bowl game is quite an accomplishment for the pretenders, it is certainly not the same for the contenders. Considering the strength of this year’s schedule coincided with the talent on the field and the expanded playoffs, if Notre Dame’s best postseason option for 2024 is the Sun Bowl, then put, the season will be deemed a failure. An adequate barometer for gauging how the 2024 season will likely pan out will begin in week one against #20 Texas A&M.
An argument can be made that Notre Dame’s 17-14 loss to Ohio State last year was its best win. Another “moral victory” will not be acceptable on Saturday. For Notre Dame to finally peel away from haters labeling them irrelevant and for head coach Marcus Freeman to really solidify himself as the head coach at Notre Dame, beating the Aggies in front of 102,000 rabid SEC fans in primetime on national television is the only option. There isn’t a close second at this point.
Key Injuries
Notre Dame
- DB Chance Tucker (ACL), OT Charles Jagusah (Pectoral), and RB Gi’Bran Payne (ACL) are all out for the season.
Texas A&M
- RB Rueben Owens is out for the season (Lower Body).
Notre Dame Football Betting Trends
- Texas A&M is 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games.
- The total has gone under in five of Notre Dame’s last six games versus the SEC.
- Notre Dame is 5-2 ATS in their last seven games played in week one.
- Notre Dame is 5-1 ATS in its last six games.
- Notre Dame is 3-2 all-time versus Texas A&M
Point Spread and Over / Under Total
#7 Notre Dame (0-0) (0-0 ATS) at #20 Texas A&M -3 (0-0 (0-0)
The 2024 Manning Passing Academy Air It Out Challenge winner, Riley Leonard, will be leading the way for the Irish offense. In seven games last year, the Duke transfer quarterback completed 95 of 165 attempts for 1,102 yards, including three touchdowns and three interceptions. He carried the ball 58 times for 352 yards and four scores. With a plethora of more weapons around him at Notre Dame, along with offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock at his disposal, those numbers should drastically improve this season.
The Aggies will be led by Leonard’s former Duke head coach, Mike Elko. Texas A&M will also be welcoming back its starting quarterback, Conner Weigman that missed most of 2023 after sustaining an injury during week four. In the four games that Weigman appeared in, he completed 82 passes for 979 yards with eight touchdowns and two interceptions. None of the opponents Weigman faced had what the Irish will have for him on defense though.
Notre Dame was a top-ten defense a year ago and should produce the same, if not better, results this season. The Irish possess arguably the nation’s best defensive back in Benjamin Morrison, as well as 2022 High School Butkus Award winner Drayk Bowen, now starting at linebacker. The defensive line will be solidified by veterans such as Rylie Mills, Howard Cross, Duke edge rush transfer, and RJ Oben.
The Aggies defense will bring some heavy hitters of its own, including Purdue transfer Nic Scourton. Follow the double-digit sack artist up with Bowling Green transfer Cashius Howell and returning players such as Shemar Stewart and Shemar Turner, and you’re looking at one of the best defensive lines in the SEC.
Earlier in the preseason, this line opened with Texas A&M sitting at -1, but now some books have the Aggies as high as -3. As for the total, it opened at 49.5 but has since fallen to 46.5 across the board. It will be loud, it will be hot, and it might even be a little wet, but it’ll be another opportunity for a coach Freeman-led team to label itself as a national championship contender. Week one is put-up or shut-up time for Notre Dame football. Pick: Notre Dame
Behind Enemy Lines Week 1:
PICKS-Win/Loss on the year: 0-0 ATS
Western Illinois (0-0) (0-0 ATS) at Northern Illinois N/A (0-0) (0-0 ATS)
Northern Illinois finished last season 7-6, including a 21-19 Camelia Bowl victory over Arkansas State. The Huskies will begin their 2024 campaign with a scrimmage against Western Illinois, granting them an additional week to prepare for their showdown at #7 Notre Dame in week two. Next week: Notre Dame
Indiana State (0-0) (0-0 ATS) at Purdue -33.5 (0-0) (0-0 ATS)
Purdue begins the 2024 season against the lowly Indiana State Sycamores. This game will serve as a tune-up game as the Boilermakers will use a bye the following week in preparation for Notre Dame in week three. The total has gone over in four of Indiana State’s last six games. Purdue is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games. Purdue is a massive 33.5-point favorite with a total of 48.5. Pick: Purdue
Miami (OH) (0-0) (0-0 ATS) at Northwestern -3 (0-0) (0-0 ATS)
Miami (OH) enters this season as the MAC champions after defeating Toledo, 23-14 in the MAC championship game. Northwestern finished 2023 with an 8-5 record, including a Las Vegas Bowl win over Utah. Miami (OH) is 5-1 ATS in its last six games versus Northwestern. The total has gone under in four of Northwestern’s last five games. Northwestern is hovering around -3 with a total of 42.5. Pick: Under 42.5
Austin Peay (0-0) (0-0 ATS) at Louisville -35.5 (0-0) (0-0 ATS)
Austin Peay will be heading to Louisville under the new leadership of former UCLA tight ends coach Jeff Faris. Louisville will be coming in hot off one of its best seasons ever after finishing 2023 with 10 wins. Austin Peay is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games. The total has gone over in four of Louisville’s last five games. The Cardinals are favored by a whopping 35.5 points, and the total is firmly at 53.5. Pick: Louisville
TCU -9 (0-0) (0-0 ATS) at Stanford (0-0) (0-0 ATS)
TCU will look different on defense in 2024 as the Horned Frogs will showcase a 4-2-5 front. Stanford will be returning a ton of experience on offense, including three options at quarterback, but veteran quarterback Ashton Daniels will likely receive the starting nod. The total has gone under in eight of TCU’s last 11 games. Standford is 5-1 ATS in its last six games versus Big 12 opponents. Pick: Stanford
Georgia State (0-0) (0-0) at Georgia Tech -21.5 (1-0) (1-0 ATS)
Georgia Tech set the tone for the 2024 season by upsetting #10 Florida State, 24-21, in Dublin, Ireland. Yellow Jackets’ quarterback, Haynes King, completed 11 of 16 passes for 146 yards. He also carried the ball 15 times for 54 yards. Georgia State finished 2023 with a win over Utah State in the Idaho Potato Bowl. Georgia State is 2-4 ATS in its last six games. The total has gone over in 13 of Georgia Tech’s last 19 games. Georgia Tech is floating around -21.5 with a total of 57. Pick: Georgia State
Bucknell (0-0) (0-0 ATS) at Navy -33.5 (0-0) (0-0 ATS)
Navy finished last season with five wins. It began 2023 with a 42-3 loss to Notre Dame. To make certain 2024 starts off better, the Midshipmen scheduled a warm-up game against Bucknell. If the ship sinks to 0-1 to begin the year, it could mean another losing season for Navy. Bucknell is 0-6 SU in its last six games. The total has gone under in five of Navy’s last six games. Navy enters this game at -33.5 with a total of 47.5. Pick: Navy
Boston College (0-0) (0-0 ATS) at #10 Florida State -17 (0-1) (0-1 ATS)
The Eagles will be led in 2024 by its new journeymen head coach, Bill O’Brien. The Eagles ended last season with a 23-14 win over SMU in the Wasabi Fenway Bowl. Meanwhile, FSU will enter this week’s game nursing bee stings from swarming Yellow Jackets as they suffered a surprising loss to Georgia Tech last week, 24-21. Seminoles’ transfer quarterback, DJ Uiagalelei, completed 19 of 27 passes for a mediocre 193 yards. The total has gone over in 10 of Boston College’s last 15 games. Florida State is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games. This line opened at -21 before falling to -17. The total also dropped 1.5 points to 50. Pick: Florida State
Richmond (0-0) (0-0 ATS) at Virginia -19.5 (0-0) (0-0 ATS)
Last year, Richmond won eight of its last nine regular season games for a piece of first place in the CAA. Virginia finished in 11th place in the ACC. The Cavaliers were winless in their first five games of 2023, so they are attempting to change the trend in 2024. Richmond is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games against ACC opponents. The total has gone over in Virginia’s last five games. Virginia is holding strong at -19.5, with the total coming in at 50.5. Pick: Richmond
Lehigh (0-0) (0-0 ATS) at Army -33.5 (0-0) (0-0 ATS)
Lehigh won a measly two games last season, so it will not take much for 2024 to be viewed as an improvement. Army finished 6-6 and will emphasize improving its ground game this season. They’ll likely put that on display for week one. Lehigh is 4-1 ATS in its last five games. Army is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games. Army is favored by a ludicrous 33.5 points, with the total resting at 47.5 Pick: Lehigh
#13 LSU -4.5 (0-0) (0-0 ATS) at #23 USC (0-0) (0-0 ATS)
LSU finished 10-3 last season with its Heisman-winning quarterback, Jayden Daniels, under center. His replacement will be Garrett Nussmeier in 2024. USC won eight games last season, and like LSU, it will be without its star quarterback in 2024 as Caleb Williams was selected first overall in the NFL draft by the Chicago Bears. Miller Moss was named Williams’ replacement. LSU is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games. The total has gone over in five of LSU’s last six games versus a Pac-12 (now Big Ten) opponent. USC is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games. This line was as high as LSU -6 before descending to where it currently sits at -4.5. The total is also at a modest 64.5. Pick: LSU
*Notre Dame’s 2023 opponents listed in bold.
