Notre Dame and Texas A&M get their respective 2024 campaigns on Saturday in what should be a heated battle, warm weather or not. The Irish need a strong start if they hope to build momentum for a playoff run. Meanwhile, Texas A&M is looking to make the debut of new head coach Mike Elko one to remember.
Looking at possible outcomes through the prism of last year’s numbers can be an exercise in futility. Yet, the numbers below may help fans better gauge the flow of the game and which team emerges with a win.
Making Up Lost Ground
Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price need to fill the glaring hole left by the absence of Audric Estime. During the previous two seasons, Estime combined to rush for 2,261 yards, scoring 29 touchdowns on the ground. Those numbers pale in comparison to the combined production of Love and Price, which consisted of 657 yards and four scores in 2023. Incoming freshman Aneyas Williams is built like Estime, though expecting a breakout in his collegiate debut might be too much to ask.
Texas A&M has its top two runners back from last year in Le’Veon Moss and Amari Daniels. That duo combined to rush for just over 1,000 yards last season, averaging five yards per carry and scoring a total of 11 touchdowns. They’ll be without the services of Rueben Owens, who’s likely out for the year with a foot injury. Former Stanford back E.J. Smith is in a position to fill that hole as the son of Pro Football Hall of Famer Emmitt Smith.
Seeing Red
A litmus test for Notre Dame’s success against Texas A&M could focus on the red zone. That’s due to the decided difference in this department for last season when comparing wins and losses. In their 10 victories, the Irish offense reached the end zone 35 out of 47 times. In contrast, the three losses, a mere seven opportunities led to just four touchdowns. On defense, Notre Dame held its foes to an average of one red zone touchdown in its ten wins and allowed four in the three defeats.
Not surprisingly, the Aggies need to deliver when they reach the Notre Dame red zone. Last season, Texas A&M had 61 opportunities in this area and scored 36 touchdowns. A breakdown of the team’s 7-6 final mark offered more evidence regarding the value of achieving this success. Seven wins were aided by 22 touchdowns from within the red zone, while the six losses garnered just 14 touchdowns. Even more telling are the defensive numbers, which show that of the 20 touchdowns the Aggie defense allowed, 18 came in the six losses.
The Power of Protection
Riley Leonard has the talent to escape some otherwise dicey pass-rushing situations. However, his first game in a Notre Dame uniform is behind an overhauled offensive line that consists of five players with six combined starts. The all-important blind side for Leonard has true freshman Anthonie Knapp at tackle and sophomore Sam Pendleton at guard. Another sophomore, Aamil Wagner is set at right tackle. Last season, a much more experienced line allowed just 16 sacks. Nine of those came in two games, largely due to the crowd noise that will resurface on Saturday.
Texas A&M’s defense ended up collecting 42 sacks, with eight coming from the departed Edgerrin Cooper. However, new transfer Nic Sourton arrives after bringing down 10 quarterbacks for Purdue last season. That same output wasn’t quite as strong on the Aggie offensive line, which allowed 30 sacks last year. One of those lapses put starting quarterback Connor Weigman out for the year. Notre Dame has an experienced defensive line, part of the 2023 group that had 31 sacks and 49 hurries.
Third Down Alarm
Leonard’s third-down numbers at Duke last year showed his struggles in the opening-week upset of Clemson. However, over the next four games, he converted 21 of 45 opportunities before his game-ending injury against the Irish began his health struggles. Notre Dame’s numbers from last year showed that when they struggled to convert in those situations, it was bad news. In their 10 wins, the Irish converted 54 of 109 chances. However, in those trio of defeats, they converted only 11 of 36 opportunities.
Texas A&M’s success rate on third down was much more consistent when Weigman was in the lineup last year. In his four starts, he converted 49 percent of his chances, while the rest of the season resulted in the Aggies dipping to 41 percent. Those extra opportunities for the signal caller and his backups resulted in Texas A&M scoring an average of just under 40 points per game.
