Notre Dame would have been able to overcome a loss to Texas A&M last weekend and still make the College Football Playoffs thanks to the expansion to 12 teams this year, but their margin for error would have gotten much smaller. After going into Kyle Field and the “impossible situation” that SEC fanboy Paul Finebaum described it as and walking out with a 10-point victory, though, the Irish are set up well to make a run for the playoffs that could set them up not just to make it there, but to make some noise once there.
Three Notre Dame opponents were in the initial AP top-25 for the season. Texas A&M was one of them, and the Irish already dispatched them. Florida State was another and the Seminoles look like anything but a top-25 team after an 0-2 start with losses to Georgia Tech and Boston College. USC was the third, and the Trojans look very much like one after giving Brian Kelly his third straight opening-week loss at LSU. Two more future opponents – Georgia Tech and Louisville – have already snuck into the top 25. However, it’s debatable whether either is still ranked when they face the Irish, given they square off against each other before either plays the Irish.
Long story short here, the rest of the schedule isn’t overly daunting, and the team that looked like the toughest, pre-season #10 Florida State, could be in full meltdown mode by the time they arrive in South Bend in November.
The way Notre Dame’s schedule breaks from here on out also gives this specific team a chance to peak in December and playoff time.
Notre Dame’s offense had its moments against the stout Aggie defense. Still, it also had moments where it looked like a team with a new quarterback, an almost historically inexperienced offensive line, and new receivers. The fact that the Irish ran for 198 yards on the Texas A&M defense despite the Aggies having one of the best defensive lines in the country speaks volumes to what this offense could become.
The next three games for Notre Dame should allow offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock to bring this offense along before it faces its next big test. Notre Dame hosts Northern Illinois this weekend, travels to Purdue next week, and then welcomes back Chuck Martin and Miami of Ohio before welcoming Louisville, a team that derailed its 2023 season.
That’s three opportunities for the Irish offense and its young offensive line to come together. We knew it wouldn’t be pretty against A&M, given all the newness to the offense and how good the Aggie defense was. We also knew that if Notre Dame could find a way to get out of College Station with a win, they’d have time to build toward the offense they wanted to be before the end of the season.
Louisville’s defense shut down the Irish offense last year, but the Cardinals had done that to former Notre Dame quarterback Sam Hartman several times before when Hartman was at Wake Forest. Louisville just seemed to have Hartman’s number. Louisville shut out Riley Leonard and Duke last year, so the Cardinals are familiar with Notre Dame’s new quarterback. It will be critical for Leonard and the Irish offense to be better by the time Louisville visits Notre Dame Stadium on September 28. That could be another “just get a win” game plan kind of day on offense.
After the Louisville game, Notre Dame gets a bye week before three games, which should be very winnable for the Irish—home versus Stanford, on the road at Georgia Tech, and then on the road against Navy. Georiga Tech has moved into the top 25, but at this point, it’s tough to say whether or not the Yellow Jackets are that good or if Florida State is that bad. Tech beat Georgia State just 35-12 last weekend. That should be three more games in which Notre Dame’s offense should be able to develop.
After Notre Dame hits the road to New Jersey to take on Navy in Met Life Stadium, they get a critical bye week. Playing Navy is always a grind for the Irish, and there tends to be a post-triple-option hangover on Notre Dame’s defense. That bye week is just another aspect of how this schedule has broken well for the Irish.
Notre Dame’s November slate features a Florida State team that could be disinterested in a potential cold-weather game, Senior Day versus Virginia, a trip to Yankee Stadium to face Army, and then the regular season finale against archrival USC. That’s another favorable stretch, given that the Seminoles look headed for a down year.
The Texas A&M game validated that Notre Dame’s defense will once again be one of the best in the country, and no one outside of USC should really put a ton of stress on them—although we thought that about Louisville last year when Jake Plummer pulled out the game of his life. Still, the defense will, at the very least, keep Notre Dame in every single game, if not take some over.
The big question mark for Notre Dame this year was whether or not the offense could improve. Seeing them run for nearly 200 yards against the most formidable defense they’ll face all year in week one is highly encouraging. While not every defense they face is a pushover, they won’t face another defensive line like the one they just dominated in the fourth quarter. The offensive line will have time to continue to gel and come together over the next several weeks without another elite defense in sight until maybe Florida State. And that’s only if the Seminoles can right the ship in a hurry.
A lot of work has to be done for Notre Dame to run the table, but the way the schedule has broken for the Irish, they won’t need to be perfect offensively each week to peak at the right time now that they’ve gotten past what figures to be their toughest game. They just need to iterate towards being the offense they want to be by the end of the season each week.
Let’s not get ahead of ourselves….the Irish have a terrible history of playing down to the quality of their opponents.