During the spring and summer practices, Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman and some of his players mentioned the importance of trust several times when speaking. They felt it was vital in deciding who would be named to the starting lineup for the season opener and who could be trusted with the ball in their hands during a game. An integral part of trust is believing that someone is being honest.
In week one against Texas A&M, Notre Dame quarterback Riley Leonard was average at best, completing passes that required contested catches by his receivers while also missing some wide-open ones. Against the Aggies, he finished with 158 yards passing. Last week against Northern Illinois, Leonard performed even worse in a 16-14 home loss. He finished with a QBR of 25.8, including 163 yards passing and two interceptions. He also carried the ball 11 times for 16 yards (1.5 YPC). Honestly, he looks like an athlete being asked to play quarterback. Notre Dame is one of five FBS teams that have not thrown a touchdown pass this season. The Irish are ranked 114th nationally with 160.5 passing yards per game.
Based on the past two weeks of seeing Leonard as the quarterback for the Irish, if the Notre Dame coaches and players (including Leonard) are honest with each other, quarterback Steve Angeli deserves a look under center at Purdue this weekend. During Angeli’s start in last year’s Sun Bowl against Oregon State, he earned trust, completing 15 of 19 passes for 232 yards and three touchdowns. He also rushed for 27 yards on eight carries. It is unclear if Angeli would be the spark the Notre Dame offense needs without being given another opportunity. Still, he couldn’t perform much worse than the Duke transfer quarterback has performed in two games.
Conversely, one player that has performed well the past two weeks for the Irish offense is running back Jeremiyah Love. Against NIU, Love finished with 79 yards rushing, including a 34-yard run in which he hurdled a defender for a touchdown. Love averages 6.8 per attempt on 25 carries through two games, including two scores. He is not the only one who has held his own over the past two games. Notre Dame’s defense has also remained consistent in their play regarding limiting points.
NIU entered last week’s game 1-0 after defeating Western Illinois the week before. In their week-one matchup, the Huskies racked up over 700 yards of total offense, including 55 points. However, NIU was limited to just 16 points versus the stingy Notre Dame defense. Irish all-American safety Xavier Watts led the way with eight tackles (six solo). Next up: Purdue
Key Injuries
Notre Dame
DB Chance Tucker (ACL), OT Charles Jagusah (Pectoral), and RB Gi’Bran Payne (ACL) are all out for the season. DL Gabriel Rubio is out for 2-3 weeks (foot). OT Tosh Baker is out (shoulder). DL Joshua Burnham is questionable (ankle). QB Riley Leonard (shoulder) status is unknown at this time though reports have said Notre Dame expects him to play.
Purdue
WR CJ Smith (hamstring) and CB Nyland Green (foot) are doubtful.
Betting Trends
- Notre Dame is 59-26-2 all-time versus Purdue
- Notre Dame is 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
- Purdue is 5-10 in its last 15 games ATS
- The total has gone under in five of PUR last seven games against ND
Money Line and Total (Over / Under)
Notre Dame (1-1) (1-1 ATS) at Purdue (1-0) (0-0 ATS)
GET IN THE GAME
 | Bet $5, Get $150! (new customers and based on local availability) | Bet Now |
During week one, Notre Dame was like a wolf in the hen house at College Station while defeating Texas A&M by double digits, 23-13. Week two was a different story, as the Irish looked like a mailman running from a pack of Huskies losing to Northern Illinois as a 28-point favorite. That kind of loss is unacceptable; however, it is the third time it has happened under coach Freeman. During the 2022 season, it happened twice as the Irish fell to Stanford as 16-point favorites, 16-14, and to Marshall, 26-21 as 20-point favorites. This trend cannot continue if Freeman hopes to remain as head coach at Notre Dame. It is certainly a trend that cannot continue for the remainder of this year.
To begin the 2024 season, the line on this game was as high as Notre Dame -15 at some books. After week one, the line fell to -13.5 before settling to where it is now at -11.5. The reason for the movement likely has little to do with Purdue’s dismantling of Indiana State in week one and more to do with Notre Dame’s lukewarm offensive performances over the past two weeks. The most recent offensive no-show by the Irish resulted in an embarrassing $1.4 million home loss to NIU.
Against the Huskies, Notre Dame managed just 286 yards of total offense. Notre Dame scored on its first possession of the game but was kept out of the endzone for the remaining three quarters. The Irish scored as many touchdowns against NIU as Western Illinois did the week prior. This problem must be solved heading into week three.
The Boilermakers were without ten players in week one, including five players on defense, and Purdue still flexed its muscles, shutting out lowly Indiana State 49-0. The Boilermakers’ defense surrendered just 154 yards of offense. On the other side of the ball, Purdue’s offense was electric. Purdue quarterback Hudson Card was nearly perfect, completing 24 of 25 passes for 273 yards and four touchdowns. Some of, if not most of the injured players will be available this week against Notre Dame as they were able to nurse their injuries during their bye week.
Last week, Notre Dame watched Rockne’s house get robbed, and they did nothing to stop it. That kind of hesitant, conservative approach on offense will not work this week in West Lafayette. Whether it is the quarterback or not, something must change on offense for more points to reach the scoreboard. The oddsmakers must expect some adjustment, as the line still has Notre Dame as a double-digit favorite. However, the total is nearly the same as last week’s game, sitting at 45.5. Legendary Notre Dame head coach, Lou Holtz once said, “You’re never as good as everyone tells you when you win, and you’re never as bad as they tell you when you lose”. Pick: Notre Dame
Live Notre Dame Futures to Watch:
- National Championship game winner +8000
- To make the 2024-2025 College Football Playoffs +350
- Heisman Trophy winner (Riley Leonard) +8000
Behind Enemy Lines Week 3:
PICKS-Win/Loss on the year: (7-10) ATS
Texas A&M (1-1) (0-1 ATS) at Florida (1-1) (0-2 ATS)
The Aggies bounced back nicely to the win column, outdueling McNeese State 52-10. Texas A&M outgained the Cowboys 529 yards to 279 yards of total offense. Florida shined in its jamboree against Samford, 45-7. Gators’ quarterback, DJ Lagway, threw for 456 yards and three touchdowns. Texas A&M is 0-5 ATS in its last five games. Florida is 1-6 ATS in their previous seven games. A&M is hovering around -4.5, with the total sitting at 46.5. Pick: Texas A&M
#25 Northern Illinois (2-0) (1-0 ATS) – Bye week
Last week, Northern Illinois shocked the world defeating Notre Dame on the road, 16-14. Huskies’ running back, Antario Brown rushed for 198 yards and one touchdown. He also caught two passes for 126 yards and another score. Next week: Buffalo
Cincinnati (1-1) (0-2 ATS) at Miami (OH) (0-1) (0-1 ATS)
Cincinnati suffered its first loss of the season after blowing a 17-6 halftime lead, falling to Pittsburgh, 28-27. Bearcats quarterback, Brendan Sorsby tallied 298 yards passing and three touchdowns. Miami, OH, enters week three looking for its first win of the season after falling to Northwestern during week one, 13-6. The RedHawks were limited to 40 yards rushing on 24 attempts (1.7 YPC). Miami, OH, is 2-4 ATS in its last six games against Cincinnati. The total has gone over in four of Cincinnati’s last five road games. The Bearcats are -2.5 across the board, with a total of 45.5. Pick: Cincinnati
#19 Louisville (2-0) (1-0 ATS) – Bye week
Louisville manhandled Jacksonville State, 49-14. Cardinals quarterback Tyler Shough passed for 349 yards and two touchdowns. Next week: Georgia Tech
Stanford (1-1) (1-1 ATS) – Bye Week
Stanford took care of business in their scrimmage against Cal Poly, 41-7. The Cardinal held the Mustangs to 25 yards rushing on 20 carries. Next week: at Syracuse
VMI (0-0) (0-0 ATS) at Georgia Tech (2-1) (2-1 ATS)
Last week, Georgia Tech lost a close one at Syracuse, 31-28. The Yellow Jackets produced 378 yards of total offense, but their defense surrendered a whopping 515 yards. This week, Georgia Tech will look to recover and get back on track during their scrimmage against VMI. Next week: at Louisville
Navy (2-0) (1-1 ATS) – Bye Week
Navy improved to 2-0 on the season after defeating Temple easily, 38-11. Midshipmen running back Blake Horvath rushed for 122 yards on 18 carries (8.1 YPC), including three touchdowns. Next week: Memphis
Memphis (2-0) (2-0 ATS) at Florida State (0-2) (0-2 ATS)
The Seminoles suffered their second upset in consecutive weeks while losing to Boston College at home, 28-13. Florida State will likely search for a different starting quarterback before season’s end as quarterback, DJ Uiagalelei finished with 276 yards passing and one touchdown including one interception. He was also sacked three times. The Memphis Tigers chewed up Troy in their last game, 38-17. Tigers running back Mario Anderson racked up 125 yards on the ground, including two touchdowns. Memphis is 5-0 ATS in its last five games. The total has gone under in four of FSU’s last five games. This line has Florida State at -6.5 with a total of 52. Pick: Over 52
Maryland (1-1) (1-1 ATS) at Virginia (2-0) (1-0-1 ATS)
Virginia outscored Wake Forest, 14-10, in the second half last week to earn its second win of the season. Cavaliers quarterback, Anthony Colandrea passed for 357 yards and three touchdowns in Virginia’s 31-30 victory. Maryland’s first loss of the season came at home last week as the Terrapins fell to Michigan State, 27-24. Maryland surrendered nearly 500 yards of offense to the Spartans. The total has gone over in four of Maryland’s last five games against Virginia. The Cavaliers are 4-2 ATS in their previous six home games against Maryland. Maryland is coming in as the road favorite of -2.5 with a total of 55. Pick: Over 55
Army (2-0) (2-0 ATS) – Bye week
The Army defense surrendered just seven points for the second consecutive week after defeating Florida Atlantic, 24-7. The Black Knights combined for 405 yards rushing and two scores on offense. Next week: Rice
#11 USC (2-0) (2-0 ATS) – Bye week
The Trojans continue to impress as USC shut out Utah State last week, 48-0. The Trojans’ defense limited the Aggies to just 190 yards of total offense while racking up 548 yards of its own. Next week: at Michigan
*Notre Dame’s 2023 opponents are listed in bold.
