Coming off a brutal two-point loss, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish are now in a position where another defeat could knock them from a potential bid for a national title. The fact that the Irish are currently 10-point road favorites offers little solace given that they were favored by nearly three times that amount last Saturday and somehow came up short.
On the bright side, the Marcus Freeman era has generally seen Notre Dame bounce back after a defeat. In the seven losses during his first two seasons, the Irish have won their following game six times. The lone failure came in Freeman’s home opener in 2022 after a loss at Ohio State. In that instance, Marshall came to Notre Dame and left with a stunning 26-21 victory.
Below are some numbers to keep track of during Saturday’s clash against the Purdue Boilermakers:
The Power of Possession
One of the issues in last Saturday’s loss that Freeman brought up during his Monday press conference was Notre Dame losing the time of possession battle with Northern Illinois. That particular statistic isn’t always a litmus test for how an Irish matchup will unfold, with Freeman’s short career as head coach showing that contrast.
During the 2022 campaign, winning the time battle was a recipe for success. In the team’s nine wins, Notre Dame held the ball longer than its opponents on all but one occasion. In the Irish’s four losses, they lost that battle each time. Last season, however, their 10 wins showed a split down the middle while the three defeats saw two losses in that category. In short, while winning this department doesn’t guarantee a victory, losing it almost always means defeat.
For Purdue, the Boilermakers’ one 2024 game shows that they lost the time of possession by roughly a minute in the 49-0 win over Indiana State. Of course, the caveat is that Purdue methodically built its lead throughout the game, scoring 14 points in each of the final three quarters.
Looking at last season’s possession battle numbers for the Boilermakers, the team’s 4-8 record shows that winning this category was something of a mixed bag. In those four victories, Purdue won this department each time but also won it in three of the eight losses. Much like Notre Dame’s numbers, holding onto the ball longer won’t necessarily help the Boilermakers pull off the upset. However, being on the short end increases the likelihood of them losing.
Superior Running Needed
Another area that Freeman cited in explaining last Saturday’s loss to Northern Illinois was getting beaten in rushing yardage, 190-123. In his 20 wins, Notre Dame has won the rushing battle 18 times and in the nine losses, the Irish have only emerged victorious in this category twice.
Coming up short twice in those two wins requires some context, with the first instance coming against run-dominant Navy in 2022. Last season, Notre Dame was outgained by Duke, whose then-quarterback was current Irish signal caller, Riley Leonard. Before suffering an injury at the end of that contest, Leonard led the Blue Devils with 88 of their 189 yards.
Purdue’s balanced offense in the shutout of Indiana State included 248 yards on the ground, with the 31 carries by Boilermaker runners averaging eight yards, a notable number regardless of the opponent. Still, achieving anywhere close to that number against a solid Notre Dame run defense would be quite an accomplishment.
Last season, Purdue’s effectiveness with the running game took hold in the final three games. In those contests, the Boilermakers collected 834 yards on 5.75 yards per carry, with two of those teams having a losing record. In contrast, against three ranked opponents last season, Purdue managed only 344 total yards on just 3.3 yards per carry. The Irish may have tumbled to 18th in the polls, but that ranking means that the true test of the Boilermaker running game will occur on Saturday.
The Mistake Menace
Not giving away the ball is a basic goal of any football team, with that adage coming back to bite Notre Dame last Saturday. Two interceptions, especially the latter one, played a role in the loss to Northern Illinois. Freeman’s fixation on this topic is because of simple numbers. When the Irish have had fewer turnovers or were tied in that category, they’ve won 16 of 19 contests. When they’ve lost that battle, they’ve compiled a poor 4-6 mark.
Purdue’s 2023 season is also indicative of the curse of turnovers. During a 4-8 campaign, the Boilermakers managed to break even with four wins in the eight games in which they either won or were tied in the turnover battle. However, losing this category made losing a given, with defeats in all four games this happened. Ironically, they lost in this department during their opening 2024 game, a 49-0 win over Indiana State, thanks to a lone fumble.
