Frankie V’s Prediction: Will Notre Dame Football Rebound from Crushing Loss?

A week after one of the worst losses in program history, Notre Dame returns to action today. Marcus Freeman leads his team into Ross-Ade Stadium this afternoon to take on former long-time rival Purdue, with the Irish in desperate need of a bounce-back performance. A week after playoff talk, Notre Dame is just looking to rinse off some of the stench from being the first top-5 team to ever lose to a MAC school. Standing in their way is a Purdue team that isn’t expected to be very good this year. However, That might not matter if the Irish don’t play significantly better than they did last week. Will they?

What doesn’t worry me

Notre Dame’s defensive bouncing back

Notre Dame’s defense wasn’t bad last week, and its role in the Irish’s embarrassing loss to NIU last week pales in comparison to the offense’s culpability. However, it was still an uncharacteristic performance for them. They weren’t disciplined in their gap assignments, were slow to react, and got blown off the line way too much. I’d be more concerned if we had not seen them perform at a high level all last year and in week one against Texas A&M. There’s too much talent on this defense – that we’ve also seen play well – for that to happen again. That doesn’t mean there won’t be an explosive play or two again this week since Purdue runs an air raid offense, but I expect to see a much more disciplined effort from the Notre Dame defense.

Another let down

If the Irish come out flat and uninspired again this week, there are huge fundamental issues with the culture of the program, and right now, I don’t want to think that’s the case, so maybe this is more projection here. Notre Dame tends to respond well in these instances – which, sadly, “we’ve been here before” – especially on the road. After back-to-back clunkers in 2022 against Marshall and Cal, Notre Dame went on the road to North Carolina and put up 45 points in a 13-point win. Traveling, even a short distance, to escape the pressures and responsibilities of playing at home can be a good thing after a loss like last week’s. Let’s hope so.

Notre Dame’s offensive line

After a solid start to the season, it looked like they took a step back against a weaker opponent. Upon further though, the line wasn’t as bad as it seemed in real time. The few times that Mike Denbrock dialed up runs, there was some room. There wasn’t a ton of room, but some room. Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price are doing a phenomenal job forcing missed tackles this season. The line gave Riley Leonard some clean pockets, too. Leonard bailed out of them too early and into pressure at times instead of stepping up into them and buying time. It was not a stellar performance, but it wasn’t as bad as some made it out to be in the immediate aftermath of the loss. I expect the offensive line to be fine today.

What worries me

The quarterback situation

Riley Leonard had about as bad of a game as one could have in their first game in Notre Dame Stadium. There’s no sugarcoating it. It was ugly. Add into the mix a mysterious shoulder injury that wasn’t on Notre Dame’s Monday injury report but did make its way into the news this week, and it’s tough to be overly optimistic about the quarterback situation right now. Marcus Freeman left the door WIDE open for him to make a quarterback change if Leonard can’t move the offense again this week during his Thursday media availability, so it wouldn’t surprise me if we saw Steve Angeli at some point today, too. In a perfect world, Leonard shakes off last week’s clunker and gets more comfortable on the offense. Purdue will stack the box and try to force Notre Dame to pass the ball, too, so the Irish have to get better play from the position to have a chance.

I cannot believe I just wrote “to have a chance” in a preview against Purdue.

Another square peg/round hole offensive game plan

As bad as the quarterback play was last week, the offensive game plan was worse. Denbrock scripted a start to the team that featured Leonard’s legs, which resulted in a relatively easy touchdown. Then he never went back to it and had Leonard chuck the ball all over the field when the running game was working. After Jeremiyah Love’s highlight-reel touchdown run, he touched the ball just one more time. None of it made sense to me. After that first drive, the entire “game plan” – or the concepts of a game plan – felt very square peg/round hole with Leonard’s skillset. He’s not a traditional dropback passer, but Denbrock treated him like one after the first drive. Knowing that Purdue will stack the line of scrimmage – it’s their MO – and force Notre Dame to pass, I worry that Denbrock might try to get too cute again and only outsmart himself.

The point spread plummeting on Friday

I was on the ISD Football Friday Happy Hour yesterday, and when I heard Tyler Wojciak say that the point spread, initially 16 points before the NIU disaster, fell from 10.5 down to 7.5 on most sportsbooks on Friday, I got worried. That is a HUGE action in one day that all went on at Purdue. Usually, when that happens, Vegas knows something that we don’t. My worry here isn’t the spread so much as it is whatever Vegas might know that we don’t. Is a key player going to be unavailable? If Vegas thought that Leonard wouldn’t be available because of the shoulder injury, that would make sense for the line to drop like that, but at the same time, the total on the game jumped three points. That is a bizarre occurrence to happen simultaneously in such a short period. I am unsure what it means, but I know I don’t like it.

Players to watch this week

• Jaiden Ausberry—He was all over the field in the second half last week and looked like a rising star. Let’s see how he backs that up.
• Jordan Faison – Freeman said Faison will be available today, and the offense desperately needs him. Remember how different the downfield passing game started to look once Faison was inserted into the lineup last year?
• Rylie Mills – He had a rough outing against NIU. Notre Dame needs more out of one of its captains, and this is a prime situation for a captain to rise to the occasion. Let’s see if he does.
• Mitchell Evans – His snap count should increase again this week as he ramps up after last year’s injury. The combination of Evans getting more involved and Faison returning could be huge for the passing game.
• Howard Cross – There were rumors all summer that Cross wasn’t 100%. He looked just fine against A&M but was not a factor against Purdue. Notre Dame needs him at least somewhere in the middle today.
• Xavier Watts – A huge turnover early in the game could help settle the offense. Who better to deliver on than Mr. Turnover himself?
• Beaux Collins – He’s been Notre Dame’s best receiver by far and a contested catch monster. Notre Dame has to dial up some jump ball shot plays for him today.

Prediction Time

I felt better about this game as the week wore on until the spread moved so much yesterday. Since the point total jumped, though, I hope it was just a ton of money coming in on Purdue and nothing related to player availability that we don’t know about yet. This is a must-win game for Marcus Freeman. It shouldn’t have to be, but it is. I think the defense will be better than it was a week ago and influence the score directly, either with a defensive touchdown or by setting up the offense with a chance to punch one in.

Notre Dame 27, Purdue 10

(Yes, this is probably a much too optimistic prediction, all things considered, but if there is one thing I’ve learned about this team over the last three years, it is to expect the unexpected.)