Notre Dame has a better record against the SEC (1-0) than against the MAC (0-1) at this point of the season, thanks to the home-opening loss to Northern Illinois. The Irish are back home again today, hosting another MAC opponent: Miami of Ohio. Will the Irish handle their business this time and notch their first home win of the season, or will they have another inexplicable showing against a heavy underdog?
What Worries Me This Week
Another flat performance
Notre Dame was far from flat in last weekend’s shellacking of Purdue – the worst in Purdue’s program’s history – but there has been something about preparing for home games as heavy favorites that we’ve seen Marcus Freeman trip up with. Until that stops becoming a thing, it’s a concern. Let’s not forget that it was all of two weeks ago that a 4-touchdown underdog walked into Notre Dame Stadium without any stars in their eyes and pushed the Irish around. It looks like that served as a wake-up call for them, but we thought the Marshall game was a wake-up call in 2022, and then the Stanford game happened.
After three losses to 16+ point underdogs at home in his first 30 games, it’s unrealistic to expect that Freeman figured out and solved that problem entirely, even with last weekend’s beating of Purdue. That doesn’t mean it will happen again today, but to me, it means that it’s still something that has to be a concern.
Notre Dame’s passing game
I expected the Irish passing game to be a work in progress all season long, but I was also hopeful that we’d seen some good progression week over week. Instead, the passing game took two steps back against NIU and wasn’t needed with the starters in the game, so we still haven’t seen starting quarterback Riley Leonard push the ball vertically. Heck, we haven’t seen Notre Dame’s starting quarterback even throw a touchdown pass through three games, even though he has four rushing scores on the season.
This should be the kind of game that the passing game should look better in, but after the NIU debacle, it looked like the Irish were just content with some short, easy-access throws for Leonard to build back his confidence. With Louisville on the horizon next weekend, a better passing attack is going to be needed, so hopefully, we see some signs of life today, but right now, the passing attack under Leonard is a concern.
What Doesn’t Worry Me This Week
Notre Dame’s MASH unit Offensive Line
Notre Dame has already lost three starting offensive linemen for the season, and the calendar still says September. That could be enough to derail a season, but the Irish might be OK here, at least short-term. With Rocco Spindler and Pat Coogan’s experience stepping in, the Irish offensive line might have improved in the run-blocking department while taking a hit in pass-blocking. Long-term, it’s clear the staff felt both Ashton Craig and Bill Schrauth had higher ceilings; otherwise, Spindler and Coogan would have started from day one. For today, though, and maybe even through most of the remaining regular season, the offensive line should be in fine shape.
Today, especially, the Irish OL should pave the way for a good day by rushing the football. Miami does not have a good run defense, and with the dynamic duo of Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price, the Irish could run for 300+ again today if they want to.
Miami of Ohio scoring a lot of points
Notre Dame’s defense was dominant last weekend against the Boilermakers. They were a true freshman safety, inadvertently running into another defender away from a shutout. Even in the loss to NIU, when the defense wasn’t stellar, they only gave up 16 points. On the season, they’ve given up 36 points in the three games. That will win you a lot of games.
The RedHawks offense isn’t much better than its defense, so I expect the Irish defense to EAT again today. The pass rush came alive last week after a couple of underwhelming performances. What would be nice to see today is more turnovers.
Players to Watch
- Mitchell Evans – He keeps ramping back up, and I think we will see him find the endzone today for Riley Leonard’s first TD pass of the season.
- Boubacar Traore – With Jordan Botelho out, Traore steps into a starting role. He looked the part last week, but we’ll need to see how increased usage impacts the sophomore’s impact.
- Backup VYPERS – With Josh Burnham questionable, we could see true freshmen Bryce Young and/or Loghan Thomas out there in addition to Junior Tuihalamaka.
- Benjamin Morrison – It feels like the day that Morrison gets his first interception of the season.
- Jeremiyah Love / Jadarian Price – Both could top 100 yards on the ground today, and both could find the endzone.
- Jordan Faison – Will he get back into the rotation today? The Notre Dame passing game needs all the help it can get.
Prediction Time
I don’t think that home letdowns are something that has been eradicated in two weeks after all of the ones we’ve seen under Freeman, but I don’t think we’ll see another one today. I expect the game to be more challenging than last week’s blowout, but I don’t think we’ll see another NIU-type performance. Riley Leonard will look a little better passing the ball, but the Irish will rely on the running game again this weekend to pull away in the second quarter.
Notre Dame 45, Miami 13
I applaud you for attempting to make a prediction lol.
I figure it could be anywhere from a 66-7 win to a 6-9 loss. For all the reasons Frank notes.
I am leaning towards a dominant win, since the NIU embarrassment is still fresh. But take nothing for granted.