With one game left before another bye week, Notre Dame has the challenge of defeating a team with a better record than them. The Navy Midshipmen have a 6-0 record and have turbocharged the team’s run-based offense by averaging nearly 45 points per game.
The Irish come in a roll of their own, with five straight wins. Amid a string of injuries, Notre Dame has managed to continue to deliver on defense as it continues to seek a more balanced attack on the offensive side.
Below are some of the key numbers to look at on Saturday:
Behind the Line
Wiping out a play before it gets started puts an opponent in a bind and Navy has delivered in that area this season. The Midshipmen have collected 37 tackles-for-loss (TFL’s), with 15 sacks to their credit, with one statistical breakdown noteworthy. In five of the six wins, Navy has picked up 14 sacks and 35 TFL’s and allowed just 14.8 points per contest.
Those numbers are in contrast to the single sack and two TFL’s in a wild 56-44 win against Memphis. It seems clear that holding Navy at bay could prove to be very beneficial to Notre Dame.
For the Irish, the story is much the same, with the team’s one loss hinting at the value of negative takedowns. In Notre Dame’s case, 32 of the 35 TFL’s took place during the six wins, while they managed just three in that category in the Northern Illinois (NIU) loss.
Even more eye-catching is that those three stops behind the line only set the Huskies back seven yards, an average of just 2.3 yards per stop. In the 32 that came during victories, the average takedown resulted in an average of nearly six yards per loss. Not surprisingly, the lone time the Irish have failed to pick up a sack in a game this year was that same NIU defeat.
Getting a Run Down
The fact that Navy will run the ball often is a given, but how effectively they can run it on first and second down may offer a clear window into how Notre Dame is doing against them. On first down, the Midshipmen are averaging 6.62 yards per carry, then follow it up with 6.41 on every run on second down. Cutting into those averages is vital because on third down, Navy is averaging a mere 2.79 yards a carry.
Interestingly, the Midshipmen have done better on longer third-down situations than in ones of third-and three or less. In the latter segment, they’ve managed just 2.17 yards every time they carry the ball. For every other third down try, the average is elevated to 3.25.
Notre Dame is tied for 80th place when it comes to converting on third down and one of the reasons is because of their struggles to run the ball in that situation. Currently averaging 4.18 yards for each third-down carry, the number doesn’t sound all that bad. However, the difference is notable when looking at their efforts on first and second down.
There have been 130 first-down run calls compared to just 73 pass attempts, with the Irish picking up an average of 5.31 yards. Where they’ve thrived in 2024 is on second down, where they’ve gained 526 yards on just 72 carries, good for an eye-catching 7.31 yards when toting the ball. Just as keeping Navy’s run game in neutral is key for Notre Dame’s defense, expanding that success beyond second down will help reduce the chances of an upset.
Red Zone Alert
Notre Dame’s defensive coaching staff needs to come up with some cogent strategy to keep Navy out of the red zone. That’s because the Midshipmen have managed to break that threshold 23 times this season and have scored each time. What’s more, all but one of those attempts resulted in a touchdown. The Irish defense has done a good job this year in this department, ranking 15th overall in the country. However, their red zone work away from the Golden Dome trails the home performance.
As far as the Irish offensive red zone performance is concerned, Navy’s defense should also be well aware of their task. Notre Dame has scored on 20 of 22 attempts this year, with 18 of those coming on touchdowns. The 18 trips to the end zone came consecutively after settling for a field goal in the opener and then going for the three-pointer last weekend.
In four of Navy’s six games, the Midshipmen defense delivered solid results in the red zone, limiting opponents to three touchdowns and two field goals. For the other two contests, this unit wasn’t quite as prolific. In the 56-44 shootout with Memphis, Navy defenders allowed scores on four of five trips to the red zone, including three touchdowns. Last weekend against Charlotte, they allowed three scores in four tries, including two touchdowns. One caveat in those Charlotte numbers is that those scores with the game out of reach.
