Notre Dame travels to New Jersey this weekend to take on the surprisingly ranked Midshipmen of Navy. The two long-time rivals meet with both programs ranked for the first time since 2019 and the second time since 1979. This could be Notre Dame’s most formidable remaining challenge en route to a potential playoff berth. Will the Irish seize the moment and make a statement, or will Navy sink their playoff chances as a nearly two-touchdown favorite?
What Worries Me This Week
Navy’s play-action passing
This isn’t your father’s Navy team – or even your older brother’s. Navy is passing the ball a lot more this year taveyearsar’s past. Specifically, they’ve been very good at using play-action passing to take advantage of defenses being overly aggressive at selling out to stop the triple option. They also play out of the shotgun a lot more than they have in previous years, as they have modernized their traditional triple-option offense into something that has been much harder for defenses to defend. In the past, they relied on perfect execution in the triple option. Now, they are mixing in explosive plays.
Notre Dame’s defense is far and away the best defense they have faced this year – and it isn’t particularly close. Still, the Irish will have a lot of young defenders who haven’t seen Navy’s offense in person much, and there is only so much you can do to simulate it in practice. If the Irish are too aggressive and don’t stay disciplined, the Midshipmen will get receivers running wide open any finally have a quarterback capable of making the Irish defense pay through the air in Blake Horvath.
Notre Dame’s offensive efficiency
Because Navy is passing much more this year, they are not as reliant on time of possession as they have been in the past, but the Irish offense will still have to maximize their possessions tomorrow. The Irish haven’t been the best at that this year. Take last week as an example. The Irish started cold, had three great drives in a row, and then went cold for the rest of the game. If Notre Dame does that against Navy, it could be a long day at the office.
Navy likley won’t bleed the clock dry as they have in the past, but every stop Navy’s defense gets will only fuel their belief that they can pull of the upset and beat the Irish for the first time since 2016.
Another slow start
Slow starts have also plagued the Irish offense all year, save the Purdue outburst. The Irish offense sputtered at the beginning of both the Stanford and Georgia Tech games the last two weeks. That can’t happen this week. If Navy gets ahead of the Irish early, momentum will be a real thing for them, as that belief in their ability to upset the Irish will only grow.
While this game isn’t Army for them, this is a game that Navy has circled every year, and honestly speaking, it means more to Navy than it does to Notre Dame. For Notre Dame, this is a game they have to get through. For Navy, it’s a game where they have absolutely nothing to lose. In a perfect world, Notre Dame wins the toss, elects to receive, and marches the ball down the field for a long touchdown drive to immediately take some of the wind out of Navy’s sails. We just haven’t seen the Irish do that much this year.
Notre Dame’s kicking game
We won’t know if the Irish will have Mitch Jeter until closer to kickoff, but if they don’t, you can chalk the kicking up to another worry of mine. Zac Yoakem showed plenty of leg last weekend, but his accuracy is still inconsistent. In a perfect world, this game won’t come down to a field goal, but if it does, there will probably be some sweaty palms on the Irish sideline.
What Doesn’t Worry Me This Week
Notre Dame’s rushing attack
While Navy comes in with a more modernized version of their offense and an undefeated record, they also haven’t really played anyone yet this year. In the one game against a team with a solid offense, Memphis, Navy gave up 44 points and 659 yards of offense. This one won’t be close if they allow Notre Dame to score 44 points. Notre Dame should be able to run the ball right at Navy with the duo of Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price.
Navy simply does not have the athletes on defense to contain Love on the exterior all game long, and while they are disciplined, they aren’t good enough on defense to contain either Love or Price all game long because of how great both are at making defenders miss. While the Irish struggled a bit on the ground against Georgia Tech last week, the Yellow Jackets defense is much more sound against the run than Navy. The Irish should run for over 200 yards on this defense.
Notre Dame’s passing game
Riley Leonard was not as sharp against Tech as he was Stanford, but this is a game where he should be able to put up some numbers – specifically, look for him to get Mitchell Evans going in the passing game finally. This is also a game where Notre Dame should be able to take advantage of Kris Mitchell and Jordan Faison’s speed against Navy’s defensive backs. We’ve seen Mitchell get integrated into the offense more in the last few weeks, and this one feels like an opportunity for a breakout game.
Memphis threw for 387 yards on this defense. If Notre Dame isn’t able to put up 250, the Irish have some deeper problems than we’d probably like to admit.
Players to Watch
- Adon Shuler – It’ll be his first time playing against Navy’s offense. He must stay disciplined to prevent the Midshipmen from getting some receivers running free.
- Xavier Watts—This won’t be Watts’s first time seeing Navy. Look for Watts to do Xavier Watts things and have a monster performance.
- Howard Cross – After a slow start, Cross has been looking more and more like the monster he was last year. If he can be as disruptive this week, it’ll free up other defenders to clean up.
- Jack Kiser—We haven’t heard his name called much this year, but the crafty veteran linebacker has seen this offense three times now, and he’s had 8 tackles against it in each of the last two seasons.
- Jayden Harrison – He’s been quiet since the bye, but before that, Mike Denbrock was finding ways to get him open downfield. This could be a good time to rediscover his speed. This could also be a prime spot for him to break a long return.
- Drayk Bowen & Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa – This is the first time seeing the triple option for them both.
Prediction Time
As you can probably tell, this game has me a bit worried this week since Navy is better than they have been. At the same time, they haven’t played anyone with a pulse other than Memphis. So, credit them for beating up on some bad team, but they haven’t seen any opponent who brings what Notre Dame does to the table. The Irish still need to be efficient and execute to pull off the win, and if things start poorly for them, I worry they might not be able to get it back on the rails. They couldn’t against Northern Illinois and the slow starts are concerning. All that said, it still is Navy after all. The Irish are better at almost every position, and there is no excuse for this one to be particularly close. That hasn’t stopped some of these games from being too close over the years, but the Irish should take care of business.
Notre Dame 42, Navy 24
