The only thing worse than getting fired on your day off might be getting surpassed by another team on your bye week while they were also on their bye week. That is what happened to Notre Dame as the Irish slid two spots to #10, leaving BYU at #9 in the latest AP poll. Part of the demotion could come at the Irish’s own doing as Notre Dame sank #24 Navy during week nine, 51-14. That loss resulted in the Midshipmen losing its top 25 ranking, and to make matters worse, Navy was subsequently shipwrecked at Rice during week ten, 24-10.
The moment proved to be too big for Navy against Notre Dame in the Meadowlands. The Midshipmen played out of character for much of the game as they suffered their biggest deficit of any game this season while also committing a season high six turnovers. Aside from turnovers, the Navy offense was outgained in every statistical category, including time of possession by Notre Dame’s offense. It seemed like when Notre Dame possessed the ball, it took what it wanted.
Riley Leonard found his groove, completing 13 of 21 passes for 178 yards and two touchdowns. More importantly, he completed passes over 25 yards to three different receivers. Leonard also rushed for 83 yards and a score, but it was running back Jeremiyah Love who led the ground attack for the Irish. Love carried the ball 12 times for 102 yards and two touchdowns, including one he took 64 yards to the house.
Unfortunately for Notre Dame, as nice as the victory was, the game against Navy did not reveal much to spectators. Following the game, fans and critics alike learned nothing new. Combine the thought of that with Navy losing by double digits to Rice last week while adding just 260 yards of offense, and one could understand why the Irish fell two spots in the AP poll. In other words, Notre Dame’s opponents have been weak through 10 games. And, although on paper, week eleven’s opponent is rich in talent, the competition on the field could be similar to what Notre Dame experienced during its last time out. Next up: Florida State
Key Injuries
Notre Dame
DB Chance Tucker (ACL), OT Charles Jagusah (Pectoral), RB Gi’Bran Payne (ACL), OL Ashton Craig (knee), DL Jordan Botelho (knee), DL Boubacar Traore (ACL), and DB Ben Morrison (hip) are all out for the season. DL Logan Thomas and K Mitch Jeter (hip) are questionable. DB Jaden Mickey will miss the remainder of the season (transfer portal).
Florida State
LB Justin Cryer (leg) and QB DJ Uiagalelei (hand) are out. OL Maurice Smith, OL Robert Scott, RB Kam Davis, LB Demarco Ward, and S Ashlynd Barker are questionable.
Betting Trends
- Florida State is 4-2 ATS in their last six games versus Notre Dame
- The total has gone over in four of Notre Dame’s last five games against FSU
- Notre Dame is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games
Line and Total
Florida State (1-8) (3-6 ATS) at #10 Notre Dame (6-1) (5-2 ATS)
Dropping two spots in the latest AP poll should also motivate the tenth-ranked Irish. Two weeks prior in New Jersey, Notre Dame played lights out against Navy, and that kind of urgency will be needed yet again this week versus the Seminoles. Notre Dame’s head coach says you don’t always gain that kind of motivation by glancing at a team’s record. Once you see what you’re up against, it is something you find for yourself. Unlike Navy, Florida State will not be lacking speed or size.
“Their record might not be where they want it to be, but I’m not trying to make this team something they’re not,” Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman stated. “They’re a talented, talented football team and that’s going to be my message to the team is that we respect our opponent. You don’t have to watch many plays to realize how talented they are.”
Both teams will be entering week 11 through different doors. Notre Dame should be well rested from its bye and full of confidence after defeating its third, ranked opponent of the season. Navy didn’t stand a chance, and it was obvious from Notre Dame’s opening 75-yard touchdown drive. Six costly turnovers recovered by Notre Dame’s stingy defense certainly added to the Midshipmen’s dismantling. The same kind of success cannot be said for Florida State as North Carolina embarrassed them at home.
The Tar Heels took a 14-3 lead into halftime before sealing their fifth win of the season, 35-11. The Seminoles offense was outgained by North Carolina 500 to 201in total yards. Florida State’s running back committee was limited to 42 yards on 28 carries (1.5 YPC). Week 11 will not get much easier for the Seminoles as they will face the nation’s 8th-ranked total defense and the nation’s 13th-ranked rushing offense.
Notre Dame enters this game -26 with a total of 42.5. Notre Dame giving 26 points seems like a lot when thinking of a Florida State team traditionally. However, this week, it may not be enough points as Florida State ranks 96th in total defense and 132nd in total offense. Add that to Notre Dame needing style points to impress the college football playoff committee. Pick: Notre Dame
Live Notre Dame Futures to Watch:
– National Championship game winner +3000
– To make the 2024-2025 College Football Playoffs -250
– Heisman Trophy winner (Riley Leonard) +10000
Behind Enemy Lines Week 11:
PICKS-Win/Loss on the year: (39-31-2) ATS
#15 Texas A&M (7-2) (2-7 ATS) -Bye
Texas A&M was shut out by South Carolina 24-0 in the second half last week, which resulted in their second loss of the season as they fell to the Gamecocks 44-20. The Aggie’s defense surrendered 530 yards, with 244 yards coming by air and the other 286 yards coming via ground. Next week: New Mexico State
Northern Illinois (4-4) (4-3-1 ATS) at Western Michigan (5-3) (4-4 ATS)
It took a 52-yard field goal with two seconds remaining in the game for Ball State to defeat Northern Illinois, 25-23. The Huskies offense’s two lost fumbles and two interceptions aided their demise. Western Michigan handed Kent State its eighth-straight loss of the season in a 52-21 smackdown. The WMU rushing attack carried the ball 37 times for a whopping 358 yards (9.7 YPC). NIU is 4-1 ATS in its last five games versus WMU. The total has gone over in four of WMU’s last five home games. NIU is sitting at -1.5 and rising with a total of 52.5 Pick: Northern Illinois
Purdue (1-7) (2-6 ATS) at #3 Ohio State (7-1) (4-4 ATS)
Purdue lost a heartbreaker in overtime to Northwestern, 26-20. The Boilermakers were held to 47 yards rushing on 23 carries. Ohio State was down 10-0 before battling back to defeat #3 Penn State, 20-13. Ohio State quarterback Will Howard passed for 182 yards, including two touchdowns, one interception, and one lost fumble. Purdue is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games. The total has gone under in 4 of OSU’s last five games. OSU is hovering around -38, with a total sitting at 53. Pick: Over 53
Miami (OH) (4-4) (4-4 ATS) at Ball State (3-5) (5-3 ATS)
Two weeks ago, Miami, OH, terrorized Central Michigan 46-7. The RedHawks offense racked up 518 yards of total offense. Ball State edged out Northern Illinois in its last game, 25-23. Cardinals’ kicker, Jackson Courville, drilled a 52-yard field goal with a couple of seconds left in the game. The total has gone over in four of Miami, OH’s last five games. Ball State is 5-0 ATS in its last five home games. Miami, OH, is firm at -12, with a total of 48.5. Pick: Miami OH
#25 Louisville (6-3) (4-5 ATS) – Bye
Louisville stunned the #11 Tigers at Clemson, 33-21. Cardinals’ running back, Issac Brown, carried the ball 20 times for 151 yards and one touchdown. Next week: at Stanford
Stanford (2-7) (2-7 ATS) – Bye
Stanford traveled across the country to get embarrassed at NC State, 59-28. Stanford running back Ashton Daniels rushed for 129 yards on 11 carries, including two touchdowns. Next week: #25 Louisville
#4 Miami (9-0) (5-4 ATS) at Georgia Tech (5-4) (4-4-1 ATS)
Miami trailed 21-17 at the half before pulling away to defeat Duke, 53-31. Hurricanes’ quarterback, Cam Ward, completed 25 of 41 passes for 400 yards and five touchdowns. Georgia Tech fell at Virginia Tech two weeks ago, 21-6. The Yellow Jackets managed just 96 yards rushing on 33 carries. The total has gone over in 10 of Miami’s last 12 games. GT is 2-4 ATS in its last six home games versus Miami. Miami is sitting at -11 with a total of 64. Pick: Georgia Tech
Navy (6-2) (6-2 ATS) at South Florida (4-4) (4-4 ATS)
Navy suffered its second consecutive loss of the season, losing at Rice, 24-10. The Midshipmen offense struggled mightily again, throwing two interceptions while only gaining 140 yards rushing on 40 attempts. South Florida invaded Boca Raton and came away with the victory over Florida Atlantic, 44-21. Bulls’ running back Nay’Quan Wright rushed for 117 yards and one score. Navy is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games. USF is 1-4 ATS in its previous five games. Navy is firm at -3.5 with a total of 57.5. Pick: Navy
Virginia (4-4) (5-2-1 ATS) at #23 Pittsburgh (7-1) (6-2 ATS)
Virginia spent its bye week recovering from a home invasion led by North Carolina. The Tar Heels took what they wanted in a 41-14 blowout. Pittsburgh traveled south to get run over by the SMU Mustangs, 48-25. Virginia is 3-6 ATS in its last nine games against Pitt. The total has gone under in six of Pitt’s last nine games against an ACC opponent. Pitt is sitting at -7.5 across the board, with a total of 57.5. Pick: Under 57.5
#18 Army (8-0) (6-2 ATS) at North Texas (5-3) (4-4 ATS)
After defeating Air Force 20-3 last week, Army picked up its nation-leading 12th straight win. Black Knights’ running back, Kanye Udoh, carried the ball 22 times for 158 yards and two scores. North Texas almost drowned against the Tulane Green Wave during their last out, falling 45-37. Mean Green’s quarterback, Chandler Morries, completed 38 passes on a whopping 55 attempts for 449 yards and three touchdowns. Army is 5-2 SU against North Texas in their last seven meetings. The total has gone over in North Texas’ last six games. Army dropped a notch to -5.5 while the total is holding steady at 63.5. Pick: Army
USC (4-5) (4-5 ATS) – Bye
USC earned its fifth loss of the season after losing to Washington last week, 26-21. The Trojans outgained the Huskies 459 yards to 375 yards, but three costly interceptions by USC quarterback Miller Moss did not help matters. Next week: Nebraska
*Notre Dame’s 2024 opponents are listed in bold.
