Under the glare at Notre Dame Stadium on Saturday night, the Irish and the Florida State Seminoles meet in a contest that’s dimmed considerably since the 2024 season began. While Notre Dame has largely followed the path expected with a 7-1 record, the Seminoles have watched their campaign crash and burn, losing eight of their nine games.
A variety of factors help explain how Florida State plummeted, including injuries. However, a struggling offense, the inability to effectively protect the quarterback and a defense that’s been torn apart on multiple occasions help offer more pertinent reasons for the collapse. While the Irish are heavy favorites in this game, Marcus Freeman and his staff have made it a point to instill the haunting memory of the Northern Illinois loss in the minds of the players.
Below are some of the key numbers connected to this game:
Big Play Contrast
Turnovers can help change the momentum of a game, with Notre Dame presenting clear evidence of it in the pounding of Navy. The Midshipmen’s inability to hold onto the ball helped the Irish convert those mistakes into 28 points. That big-play ability has been present for Notre Dame in 2024, with 10 interceptions and eight fumbles, five of the latter coming against Navy.
Notre Dame has had multiple interceptions in nine times four games this year, with the team’s strong pass rush bringing plenty of quarterback hurries to rush opposing quarterback’s decisions. The only time this unit failed to collect a turnover was in the lone loss for the year, so taking the ball away from Florida State seems to point to victory.
In stark contrast. the Seminoles’ defense has managed to force a mere three turnovers in its nine games and has had none in any of the past four contests. That inability to shift the course of the game is magnified when noting that Florida State’s offense has given the ball away 15 times, including 11 interceptions.
A comparison from just one year ago shows how the Seminoles’ went from a potential playoff berth to playing out the string. During that near-magical season, they were much more prolific in getting the ball back to their offense, with a total of 17 turnovers, including 10 interceptions. The 2023 offense did their part, giving up the ball only nine times. Only five of those came during the undefeated regular season.
Moving the Chains
Florida State dubiously ranks in the FBS bottom ten in time possession, something that can be explained by the simple fact that they also reside in those depths when it comes to offensive first downs. The Seminoles are currently averaging just 14.2 first downs, with the majority of those coming on pass connections.
In addition, being put in third-down situations has helped aggravate the problem. Only two schools, Southern Mississippi and Kent State have been worse in this situation among FBS schools, with Florida State only breaking the 40-percent threshold twice this season. Those two efforts came in the season opener in which they lost in the closing seconds and their lone victory. Ironically, FSU is thriving when going for it on fourth down, converting over 62 percent of the time.
Notre Dame is averaging 20.5 first downs per game this year and it’s clear that surpassing that average means a busy day or night on offense. In the three games, they’ve failed to reach that number, they have a 2-1 record and outscored opponents, 68-53. However, in the five games with more than 20 first downs, the Irish have dominated, outscoring foes, 225-44.
Third-down success has been more friendly to Notre Dame, though they only rank 56th overall among FBS schools. The Irish are keeping a drive alive 41 percent of the time on third down, including just under 50 percent in the aforementioned five blowouts. On fourth down, Marcus Freeman’s penchant for risk has paid off, with 11 conversions on 15 tries for a rate of better than 73 percent.
Red Zone Alert
Trips into the red zone should translate into points for teams, with both Notre Dame and Florida State accomplishing that at a rate of close to 90 percent. The problem for the Seminoles is that the Irish have made 28 trips and scored 25 times. That compares to FSU’s 16 such trips that have succeeded 14 times.
Also, the type of score has been notably different. For Notre Dame, 22 of their 25 scores have been touchdowns, giving them a grand total of 141 points for their attempts. Florida State. on the other hand, has comparatively picked up only 69 points during their forays.
The defensive side tells a similar tale with the Seminoles allowing 39 trips into the red zone that have resulted in 31 scores. Those tallies have been converted into 156 points for opponents. For the Irish, enemy offenses have broken the threshold 18 times and scored on 12 occasions. However, those successes have only led to 60 points.
