Frankie V’s Prediction: Can Notre Dame Avoid Looking Past Historically Bad Florida State?

Notre Dame hosts Florida State in its only night game at Notre Dame Stadium and just its second night game of the season later tonight. The Seminoles limp into this contest at 1-8 and perhaps the worst pre-season top-10 team of all time. On the other hand, Notre Dame enters surging after its early season loss to Northern Illinois with a 7-1 record and a #10 ranking in the College Football Playoff rankings. The Irish are almost four-touchdown favorites, and the Seminoles are headed for their worst season ever. Surely, this will be a walk in the park. Or will it?

What Worries Me this Week

Rust from Notre Dame’s offense

The Irish offense spent the month of October getting progressively better each week. Then, it had its second bye week of the season. There is always a concern coming out of a bye week that there will be some rust when a team is clicking, as well as Notre Dame before getting off last weekend. It should not shock anyone if it takes the Irish offense a drive or two to get on track tonight. That doesn’t mean the Irish won’t take the opening kickoff and march down the field. It just means that no one should freak out if the Irish offense isn’t firing on all cylinders on its first drive of the game.

For as bad as Florida State has been this year, even once the Irish settle in, I don’t expect them to fling the ball all over the field either, so it might not even be an overly high-scoring game unless the Seminoles help with some turnovers like Navy did two weeks ago. The Seminoles have some excellent pass rushers. If Notre Dame comes out trying to throw the ball a lot to work on the passing game like they did against Northern Illinois, Florida State could make this a game even though the Irish are near four-touchdown favorites.

Overconfidence over Florida State’s horrible record

The biggest opponent the Irish face tonight is the overconfidence that can come with playing a wounded team like Florida State. The Seminoles are more talented than their embarrassing record suggests, but they still are not a good football team. They lost 35-11 at home last week to North Carolina and got smoked on the road this year in losses to SMU and Miami.

Marcus Freeman stressed all week what happens when this team enters a game unfocused specifically mentioning the Northern Illinois loss to his players and the media. The players have also echoed the message in their availability with the media. Still, it’s very easy to overlook a team with a 1-7 record, even if that team started the season in the top 10. While this team looks completely different from the one that somehow lost to NIU, that was only two months ago. As long as Notre Dame comes in focused and executes, they’ll win easily. Florida State has enough athletes to make things uncomfortable if they don’t.

What Doesn’t Worry Me This Week

Notre Dame’s ability to run the ball

While Florida State has some legit pass rushers that can still disrupt Notre Dame’s passing game, I’m not worried at all about the Notre Dame run game. Florida State’s pass rushers are playing for pride and NFL Draft placement and are likely overzealous to make disruptive plays for their draft film. Notre Dame can take advantage of that by running right at them early and often. Notre Dame’s offensive line will be as healthy as it’s been all season, with Billy Schrauth back for his second game since his injury. The Irish staff moved Schrauth to left guard while keeping Rocco Spindler at right guard. Spindler has always been a better run blocker than a pass blocker, and with Schrauth’s return, the Irish run game will be even better over the final month than it already was.

Look for big performances from Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price this evening.

Al Golden’s defense letting Florida State’s offense get going

.The Florida State offense is inexplicably bad this season, almost historically so for the Seminoles. They haven’t scored over 20 points in a single game since a week 0 loss to Georgia Tech in Ireland. Even in their lone win this season against Cal, they scored just 9 points. While there is always the “Oh sure, now they figured out their problems” scenario today, it’s doubtful they will do so against an Al Golden defense – especially one as good as this one was before the guy week.

With Gabriel Rubio rounding back into form on the interior of the defensive line, this defense should be just as good, if not better, down the November stretch. There is a chance that they come out and let Florida State score early – that’s happened a few times this season – but I’m not worried at all about the Seminoles having any sustained success offensively.

Players to Watch

• Kris Mitchell – The Florida native has said this is personal since FSU did not recruit him out of high school. He’s had some nice moments over the last few games but hasn’t had an actual breakout performance yet. Maybe this is the week.
• Jordan Faison—Since returning from his ankle injury, he’s looked healthier and healthier each week. He could be the key to unlocking the Irish passing game moving forward.
• Mitchell Evans – Despite playing every week, he still hasn’t looked like his 2023-pre-injury self. The hope for Notre Dame is he can get back to form over November because, like Faison, he can help unlock the offense by opening up the middle of the field for the passing game.
• Xavier Watts—This could be said every week, but this feels like another game in which he’ll create a turnover.

Prediction Time

I’ve felt bad about this game all week, and each Florida State loss this season has actually given me more anxiety about this game because now anything short of a huge blowout will be labeled a bad game. Florida State still has athletes who can, and likely will, make some big plays tonight. Notre Dame is the better and more disciplined team. Still, there is always the chance that the Seminoles use this game as the one time all year they play up to their potential – it wouldn’t be the first time, and nor would it be the last that an opponent treated its game against Notre Dame as it’s biggest game of the year. I would still be shocked if Notre Dame lost this game, but I am not overly confident that the Irish will blow them out and cover the 26 or whatever point spread, either.

Notre Dame 35, Florida State 17