In the world of sports betting, the adage is that good teams win, but great teams cover. For Notre Dame football, its trajectory against the spread (ATS) is on the incline as the Irish dominated another opponent for the fifth straight week. The team’s persistence in covering the spread has undoubtedly caught the attention of bettors who have cashed their tickets while laying the points on the Irish over the past month. Furthermore, Notre Dame has 5-0 ATS in its last five games and 7-2 ATS during the season. That sort of steadiness week in and week out is the team’s biggest obstacle to becoming great.
“The challenge for myself and our program is consistency,” Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman stated. “To me, the greatest sign of greatness is consistency. We have to continue to prepare the way we have been preparing, elevate the way we’ve been preparing in order to produce the outcome and performance on Saturday’s we’ve had over the past couple of weeks.”
On Saturday, Notre Dame beat Florida State like they stole a pair of sneakers. The Irish dominated the Seminoles all game long, beginning with the starters and ending with the reserves. Notre Dame’s offense outgained Florida State’s 453 to 208 in total yards. The Irish defense limited the Seminoles to 208 yards of total offense, including just 88 yards passing on 26 attempts. Notre Dame took a 21-3 lead into halftime before outscoring Florida State 31-0 in the second half to secure a 52-3 victory.
It is one thing to have a big win during a season, but it is entirely different to string dominating wins together consecutively. Not only is it a sign of consistency, but it also demonstrates a team’s understanding of how to handle prosperity.
“I think it’s a sign of handling success and it’s something that we talked about at halftime of the Purdue game,” coach Freeman revealed. “I told them the greatest lesson we learned from the NIU (Northern Illinois) game was we weren’t ready to handle success. How can you show during the game that you’re ready to handle success? Is that you can be up at halftime and go out there with the same mindset that you did to start the game.”
This weekend’s game will certainly test how the Irish handle success yet again, as Notre Dame is favored by nearly 23 points. Next up: Virginia
Key Injuries
Notre Dame
DB Chance Tucker (ACL), OT Charles Jagusah (Pectoral), RB Gi’Bran Payne (ACL), OL Ashton Craig (knee), DL Jordan Botelho (knee), DL Boubacar Traore (ACL), and DB Ben Morrison (hip) are all out for the season. DB Max Hurleman and DL Logan Thomas are probable. RB Devyn Ford is questionable. DL Howard Cross (ankle) is out. DB Jaden Mickey will miss the remainder of the season (transfer portal).
Virginia
OL Jimmy Christ (ankle) is out this week. DB Antonio Clary will miss the remainder of the season. LB James Jackson is probable. LB Trey McDonald will miss the first half (targeting penalty last week).
Notre Dame Football Betting Trends
- Notre Dame is 4-0 all-time versus Virginia
- Notre Dame has won its last seven games by more than 33 points
- Notre Dame is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games
- Virginia is 5-1 ATS in its last six games
- The total has gone under in four of Virginia’s last five games
Money Line (Point Spread) and Total (Over / Under)
Virginia (5-4) (6-2-1 ATS) at #8 Notre Dame (8-1) (7-2 ATS)
It wasn’t the fact that Notre Dame won last week, but it was how they won. Sure, Florida State was a bad football team, but Notre Dame beat them by 49 points, which was Florida State’s worst loss of the season. Once again, Notre Dame quarterback Riley Leonard made some progress in the passing game as he completed four passes for over 20 yards. He also averaged 6.4 yards per carry for 70 yards. Not to be outdone, running back Jadarian Price carried the ball seven times for 95 yards, including a 65-yard touchdown run.
Florida State’s offense would have gladly taken half of that success as Notre Dame’s defense held them to 208 yards of total offense, with 88 yards coming via air and the other 120 yards on the ground (2.8 YPC). That means this week, Virginia will not be underestimating Notre Dame. They understand what they’ll be facing, and it should be assumed they’ll be ready to play come Saturday.
“Coach (Tony) Elliot has done a great job,” coach Freeman expressed. “He has his team playing at a high level, playing with confidence, and they’re competitive. They’re 3-1 on the road this year. They’ve been up in every game they’ve played this season. They had a huge win last week versus Pittsburgh, and they’re a talented bunch. They are playing with confidence and physicality. We are expecting their best.”
Last week, the Cavaliers traveled to Pittsburgh and defeated the then-18th-ranked Panthers 24-19. Virginia led the time-of-possession battle by 11 minutes, and its defense limited Pittsburgh’s offense to under 300 yards. On offense for Virginia, quarterback Anthony Colandrea did a little bit of everything. He completed 16 of 24 passes for 143 yards and carried the ball 14 times for 40 yards.
Facing a dual-threat quarterback will be all too familiar to Notre Dame’s defense as they see one firsthand at practice every day, and that is likely why the line on this game has the Irish -22.5 with a total of 50.5. Notre Dame is 5-0 SU in its last five games against an ACC opponent and Virginia is 7-0-1 ATS in its last eight road games. Unless there’s a late score by Virginia during garbage time, this game should not be close. Pick: Notre Dame
Live Notre Dame Futures to Watch:
- National Championship game winner +2000
- To make the 2024-2025 College Football Playoffs -350
- Heisman Trophy winner (Riley Leonard) +15000
Behind Enemy Lines Week 12:
PICKS-Win/Loss on the year: (45-33-2) ATS
New Mexico State (2-6) (2-6 ATS) at #15 Texas A&M (7-2) (2-7 ATS)
Texas A&M will look to bounce back from their 44-20 loss to South Carolina two weeks ago. The Aggie’s defense surrendered 530 yards, with 244 yards coming by air and the other 286 yards coming via ground. Western Kentucky, 41-28, topped New Mexico State. New Mexico State carried the ball 55 times for 331 yards. The total has gone over in New Mexico State’s last five games. Texas A&M is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games. A&M is hovering around -38.5, with a total of 54. Pick: Over 54
Akron (2-7) (3-6 ATS) at Northern Illinois (5-4) (5-3-1 ATS)
Akron added its seventh loss to the season, falling to Buffalo, 41-30. Akron quarterback Ben Finley passed for 378 yards and four touchdowns. Northern Illinois took care of business at Western Michigan, 42-28. Huskies running back Telly Johnson rushed for 141 yards and two touchdowns. Akron is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games. The total has gone over in four of NIU’s last five games against Akron. NIU is -15 with a 46.5. Pick: Over 46.5
#4 Penn State (7-1) (3-5 ATS) at Purdue (1-7) (2-6 ATS)
Purdue was derailed at Ohio State, 45-0. The Boilermakers amassed just 206 yards of total offense. Penn State welcomed Washington to the Big Ten, 35-6. Penn State’s defense limited Washington to 193 yards of total offense. Penn State is 4-1 ATS in its last five games versus Purdue. The total has gone under in nine of Purdue’s last 13 games against Penn State. PSU is -28.5, with a total of 51. Pick: Penn State
Kent State (0-9) (2-7 ATS) at Miami (OH) (5-4) (4-5 ATS)
Kent State was blanked at home by Ohio, 41-0. Kent State was held to 114 yards of total offense. Miami, OH defeated Ball State, 27-21. Red Hawks running back Keyon Mozee rushed for 105 yards. In its last five games, Kent State is 1-4 ATS versus Miami, OH. The total has gone under in nine of Miami, OH’s last 10 games against Kent State. Miami, OH, is -30, with a total of 46. Pick: Under 46
#22 Louisville (6-3) (4-5 ATS) at Stanford (2-7) (2-7 ATS)
Louisville stunned the #11 Tigers at Clemson two weeks ago, 33-21. Cardinals’ running back, Issac Brown, carried the ball 20 times for 151 yards and one touchdown. Meanwhile, Stanford was smoked at NC State in its last time out, 59-28. Stanford running back Ashton Daniels rushed for 129 yards and two scores. Louisville is 1-5 ATS in its last six games. The total has gone under in six of Stanford’s last eight games. Louisville is -20, with a total of 58. Pick: Louisville
Georgia Tech (6-4) (5-4-1 ATS) – Bye
Georgia Tech handed #4 Miami its first loss of the season as they handcuffed the Hurricanes, 28-23. Georgia Tech quarterback Haynes King carried the ball 20 times for 93 yards and a score. Next week: NC State
Tulane (7-2) (7-2) at Navy (7-2) (7-2 ATS)
Tulane dismantled Temple, 52-6. The Green Wave defense held the Owls to 159 yards of offense. Navy sailed past South Florida, 28-7. Navy rushed 321 yards on 59 carries. Tulane is 1-6 SU in its last seven games versus Navy. The total has gone over in seven of Navy’s last nine games. Tulane is at -6.5, with a total of 54.5. Pick: Navy
Florida State (1-9) (3-7 ATS) – Bye
The Seminoles kicked a field goal in the first quarter but were held scoreless for the remainder of the game at Notre Dame, falling to the Irish 52-3. The beatdown was so severe that Florida State fired its offensive and defensive coordinators following the blowout loss. Next week: Charleston Southern
#16 Army (9-0) (7-2 ATS) – Bye
Army traveled south to Texas to claim its 9th win of the season after defeating North Texas, 14-3. The Black Knights carried the ball 64 times for 293 yards (4.6 YPC). Army quarterback Bryson Daily accounted for 36 of those carries for 153 yards and two touchdowns. Next week: Notre Dame
Nebraska (5-4) (5-3-1 ATS) at USC (4-5) (4-5 ATS)
Nebraska is coming off its bye, but that came on the heels of losing to UCLA the week prior, 27-20. Cornhusker quarterback Dylan Raiola passed for 177 yards with one touchdown and one interception. USC earned its fifth loss of the season after losing to Washington two weeks ago, 26-21. The Trojans outgained the Huskies 459 yards to 375 yards, but three costly interceptions by USC quarterback Miller Moss did not help matters. It also cost Moss his starting job. The total has gone under in seven of Nebraska’s last 10 games. USC is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games versus a Big Ten opponent. USC climbed one point to -9 with a total of 50. Pick: Under 50
*Notre Dame’s 2024 opponents are listed in bold.
