Notre Dame and Virginia do battle on Saturday afternoon, with both teams come off wins. The Irish focus will try to extend its seven-game winning streak to remain in the playoff hunt. Meanwhile, the Cavaliers want to stay above .500 but have a monumental task in front of them.
Below are some numbers to consider on Saturday:
In and Through the Air
When it comes to the respective passing games, Virginia has been slightly more prolific than Notre Dame when it comes to throwing the ball. Each team has played nine games and the Cavaliers have made just under six more pass attempts per game. Each team’s completion percentage is approximately the same, though the Irish have largely been able to avoid throwing the ball away. Notre Dame has only thrown three picks in 252 pass attempts, while Virginia has three times as many picks in 302 throws.
Despite their nail-biting win over Wake Forest, the Cavaliers have been better served when they rely less on the passing game. That can be seen by looking at their four other victories. In those contests, Virginia has only put the ball up 102 times, connecting on 66 of those attempts. In the Cavs’ four losses, they put the ball up 157 times, with receivers grabbing 93 of those tosses.
For Notre Dame, the lament for some has been that Riley Leonard is relying more on his legs than his arm. Yet, in the lone Irish loss against Northern Illinois, he threw a season-high 33 times, completing 20 of them. He also threw two of his three interceptions on the year, including one that set up NIU’s winning score. Contrast that to the eight wins, in which he’s averaged close to 16 completions and 28 pass attempts. In the latter case, the pass attempts have seen an uptick from the first month of the season.
Realistically, Virginia may not have the option to keep running the ball, considering that they’re three-touchdown underdogs. Like the Irish, they have a ground game that doesn’t rely on one player, though that unit hasn’t been as productive as Notre Dame’s backfield. The Irish would be more than happy to simply run the ball all day. Leonard is a threat on his own and has plenty of depth to give to ball to and is developing solid chemistry with receivers like Beaux Collins, Jaden Greathouse and Mitchell Evans.
Quarterly Check
Notre Dame has racked up an impressive point differential for all four quarters this season. However, it’s been during the middle two periods where it’s been most dominant. In the second and third, the Irish have a commanding 189 to 37 advantage, compared to the still-notable 156 to 63 combined score in the first and fourth quarters. If, as expected, Notre Dame delivers a kill shot in Saturday’s contest, it’s likely to take place during those periods.
That’s especially true since this game will be at home, a place that oddly seems to bring about something of a subdued start for the Irish. In that first quarter during the five previous home games this year, they only have a 42-27 scoring lead. Ironically, the biggest output in those five contests was the 21 that Notre Dame posted against Louisville. Yet, the Ione score in that quarter for the Cardinals came in the opening moments when the Irish fumbled the opening kickoff and Louisville needed just four plays to take an early lead.
For Virginia, it’s been strongest in the first and fourth quarters, with a scoring advantage of 127 to 76. However, they’ve struggled during the middle quarters, getting outscored 164 -107. Getting the early jump on the Irish might at least offer hopes of an upset. Especially since the only time that Notre Dame trailed at home after the first quarter this season was in the Northern Illinois loss. In addition, the disparity in the two schools’ performances during the second and third quarters makes it imperative for the Cavaliers to try and make an immediate impact.
Trio Differences
Both Notre Dame and Virginia have used three main runners to carry the ball, with both teams regularly using quarterbacks to handle those duties. Yet, the Irish have a decided edge when it comes to production level. Their trio of quarterback Riley Leonard and running backs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price have combined to gain 1,635 yards this season, with an average carry of 6.4 yards. They’ve also combined to score 27 times on the ground, including 13 times by Leonard.
When looking at the Cavaliers’ trio, their season yardage takes a drop of nearly 500 yards for their trio of quarterback Anthony Colandrea and running backs Kobe Pace and Xavier Brown. That group has gained 1,137 yards on 4.2 yards per carry and has only reached the end zone six times. For Virginia, simply trying to match Notre Dame’s rushing efforts may be next to impossible. That means trying to gain an edge in other spots to spring an upset.
