With two weeks left in the regular season for Notre Dame, the Fighting Irish completely control their destiny. Beat #24 Army this weekend, archrival USC next weekend, and the Irish are in the College Football Playoffs. The only question for the Irish at that point would be who and where they will play. For that, the seedings, not the final rankings, are a lot more essential to pay attention to as Irish fans scoreboard watch over the final weeks of the regular season and into conference championship weekend.
In the most recent CFP rankings, Notre Dame was ranked 8th, but if these were the final rankings, the Irish would only be the #9 seed and have to travel for a first-round matchup. The Irish will move up in the rankings again this week, with Tennessee and BYU losing after being ranked ahead of the Irish. How far they move up will be determined by where the CFP committee places Georgia. There is some speculation that the Bulldawgs could jump back ahead of Notre Dame after beating Tennessee.
The top 5 should remain when the next rankings are released on Tuesday. If Notre Dame moves into the 6th spot, the Irish will still only be the 8th seed. If Georgia jumps Notre Dame and the Irish move up one spot to #7, they will remain the 9th seed. So it’s a pretty big deal for the moment whether or not UGA jumps Notre Dame since the difference between the 8th and the 9th seed is the difference between hosting a first-round game and having to travel.
Notre Dame will remain in the 9th seed if UGA jumps them because the top 4 conference champions get automatic top-4 seeds and first-round byes. As of right now, the top-4 seeds, if the season ended today, would be:
- Oregon
- Texas
- Miami
- Boise State
It seems like hardly what the committee envisioned or hoped when they devised this format, most likely, but that’s what we’d get. That still leaves Ohio State (5), Penn State (6), and Indiana (7) ahead of Notre Dame, with potentially Georgia as well.
So, how much higher can Notre Dame reasonably get without some crazy upsets? The answer might be the 6th seed because of all the Big-10 teams currently ahead of the Irish. Four of the top five teams in the rankings are presently from the Big 10. Let’s look at every team currently ahead of Notre Dame (assuming the top 5 remain unchanged) and see where there’s a movement to understand why.
1. Oregon – The Ducks are currently in the top position and undefeated. Since they do not have a loss right now, it is best for Notre Dame’s chances that they win out and win the Big-10 championship game. Since Notre Dame’s lone loss is one of the worst losses among the contenders, there likely is not any scenario where Oregon drops below Notre Dame with just one loss. Oregon has a bye this weekend and then Washington next weekend, followed by a potential Big 10 Championship. The Ducks nearly lost to Wisconsin on Saturday, so they aren’t immune to a possible upset. However, they look like they are headed to Indy for the Big 10 title game. Notre Dame fans should be rooting for them now.
2. Ohio State —The Buckeyes host #5 Indiana this weekend and are currently 12-point favorites. If they can take care of the Army, that game should ensure Notre Dame moves up another spot next week. The Buckeyes then close the season with Michigan, if they win both they’d get a rematch with Oregon in the Big-10 Championship game. The ideal scenario for Notre Dame would be Ohio State beating Indiana and Michigan and then losing to Oregon. That would seed them below a 1-loss Notre Dame team.
3. Texas—The SEC Champion will be one of the top-4 seeds, so the cleanest path for Notre Dame is probably Texas winning out, including the SEC Championship. Even if Georgia wins out and finds its way back into the SEC Championship game, they’d fall back below a one-loss Irish squad if they lost that game to Texas. The Longhorns have Kentucky this weekend and then renew their rivalry with Texas A&M Thanksgiving weekend.
If both A&M and Texas win this weekend, that game will become an elimination game for the SEC Championship. If Texas A&M wins that game (assuming they beat Auburn this weekend), they’d be in the SEC Championship, and the SEC champ would be assured of at least two losses. In that scenario, the SEC Champion would be ahead of Notre Dame in terms of seeding regardless, and it would be unlikely that any other SEC at-large team would jump the Irish.
4. Penn State – One of the trickiest wildcards in all this is Penn State. Unlike Oregon, Ohio State, and Indiana, they don’t control their destiny to get to the Big 10 Title game. They need some help but that doesn’t mean they can’t muck things up for Notre Dame. The Nittany Lions are why I think the sixth seed is the highest Notre Dame can get. If Penn State beats Minnesota and Maryland but doesn’t get a berth in the Big 10 Championship, it will be very tough for Notre Dame to jump them, which would make Penn State the highest-ranked non-conference champion and owners of the 5th seed (which might be the most coveted seed this year).
5. Indiana—This one is the easiest to figure out from a Notre Dame perspective. If Indiana loses to Ohio State this weekend, the Irish will jump them with a win over Army, and it would be tough for the Hoosiers to get back ahead of the Irish unless there is pure chaos and somehow a one-loss Indiana team makes it to the Big-10 Title game. I don’t have the mental capacity to work out all those scenarios right now.
Of the teams behind Notre Dame right now, the ones who could jump Notre Dame are likely only to be able to do that by winning a conference championship, which would seed them over the Irish anyway, so that is probably a less consequential outcome to track. For instance, if Miami wins out and wins the ACC, they’ll be in the top 4 seeds and jump Notre Dame regardless.
The highest seed Notre Dame can ever get in this format is five (5) since they have no conference championship game. The 5th seed is coveted this year, especially because not only do you play the last team in the playoffs at home in the first round, but your second-round opponent, should you win, would be the lowest-seeded conference champion that qualified for a bye. That means your path to the title from the 5th seed is against two teams that are likely ranked lower than you.
In the most likely scenario, Miami wins the ACC and qualifies as the #3 seed, with the winner of the Big 12 likely the #4 seed. That seems like it will either be BYU or Colorado, the latter of which would be utterly insane. Boise State could also sneak in at the 4 seed. Either way, you’d much rather face BYU/Colorado/Boise State than Miami and Cam Ward in a second-round matchup.
Obviously, all of this becomes moot if Notre Dame drops any of its final two games, but the way the Irish are playing now, it would take a pretty big upset for that to happen.
