If the college football season ended today, Notre Dame would host a playoff game inside Notre Dame Stadium based on the current CFP Rankings. The Irish moved up two spots to #6 in the rankings, which improves their current seeding to 8th, thanks to the top four conference winners getting a first-round bye.
Here’s a look at the current bracket, even though the final bracket will look far different.
This week’s rankings fell mainly as expected. The only thing I wasn’t sure of was whether or not the committee might overreact to Georgia’s win over Tennessee and shoot them back up in the rankings, but the Bulldogs checked in at #10 and the 11th seed. However, their win over the Vols opened up one spot for the Irish to move up, while BYU’s loss to unranked Kansas was the other. The top 5, as expected, remained the same – 1) Oregon, 2) Ohio State, 3) Texas, 4) Penn State, 5) Indiana.
For Notre Dame to move up much more, the Irish will likely need a bit of luck. The top four seeds are reserved for the conference champions, so the highest Notre Dame can reach is the fifth seed. The problem for Notre Dame right now is the logjam of Big 10 teams ahead of them. Four of the top five seeds are currently Big 10 schools. Indiana and Ohio State play this week, so one should drop below Notre Dame next week.
However, the Irish will need two more to lose to have a chance at the 5th seed. The odds of Maryland or Minnesota knocking off Penn State or Michigan beating Ohio State are very low. Sure, USC lost to Maryland, Minnesota, AND Michigan, but the Trojans are a 5-5 football team whose only big win all year was over Big Game Brian Kelly (that sentence was a lot of fun to write).
If tonight’s rankings were the final CFP Rankings of the year, the Irish would host Alabama in Notre Dame Stadium – a matchup that the CFP Committee and NCAA could only dream happens. A lot will change between now and the final rankings, though. However, one thing that won’t change is the huge difference between being 7th or 8th and being 5th or 6th. Whoever secures the 7th and 8th seeds will be greeted by either the Big 10 or SEC champion in a potential round 2 matchup if they survive their round one matchup. The 5th and 6th seeds would face the ACC, Pac 12, or the winner of a non-P4 conference should they be ranked higher than the ACC or Pac 12 winner.
Notre Dame has just one win over a currently ranked team after Louisville’s inexplicable loss to Stanford. The Irish face #19 Army this weekend, but if they beat the Black Knights, they will undoubtedly be unranked next week. That leaves just #15 Texas A&M, which the Irish beat in week one.
