Notre Dame looks to keep their playoff hopes alive tonight in Yankee Stadium against one of their oldest rivals – the #19 Army Black Knights. No one thought that Army would be ranked higher than Florida State and USC by the time they faced the Irish in the preseason, but they enter the game undefeated with playoff hopes of their own. Almost one hundred years to the day of the famous Four Horsemen game, it’s a very fitting venue and scenario. One team’s playoff dreams will end tonight in the Bronx, however; which one will it be? Let’s dive in.
What Worries Me
A slow start on offense
Army is a lot different than this year’s Navy team in that they are much more of a traditional service academy, option offense – they will try to shorten the game as much as they possibly can. Notre Dame can ill-afford a slow start, as we’ve seen them have too often this year against a team like that. If they have a start as they did against Virginia, where they only scored once on their first five possessions (and only did that one time because of a turnover), they will find themselves with a goose egg on the scoreboard at halftime.
Notre Dame has to maximize every possession against a team that wants to use as much clock as possible and keep the other offense off the field. The Irish certainly have the talent edge when they have the ball, but they have to execute, and at times, the offense hasn’t done that consistently early in games.
Too heavy of passing attack
Army’s pass defense isn’t good, so the inclination might be to go with a pass-heavy attack tonight. Makes sense, right? The only worry I have with that is that the passing game hasn’t been the most efficient and could play into Army’s hands. We saw the Irish offense consistently in third and long last week, and as a result, the offense stalled far too often. This week, they won’t get as many opportunities (i.e., drives) to correct things. Offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock should be opportunistic with the passing game while leaning on Jeremiyah Love, Jadarian Price, and the rushing attack. Army hasn’t seen a pair of backs like the Irish duo. It’ll be game over for the Army defense if either gets some space or into the open field.
Riley Leonard has had his ups and downs this year as the Notre Dame quarterback. The Irish shouldn’t need him to win the game tonight; they just need him to be efficient, keep the ball moving, and avoid mistakes.
What Doesn’t Worry Me
Notre Dame’s defense limiting points
It will not surprise me if Army strings together a long, annoying, clock-eating drive early in the game as the Irish defense settles in. They’ve seen one option attack already this year, which helps, but the Army’s attack is a bit different and certainly more run-heavy. That said, I have little doubt that Al Golden’s defense won’t figure it out quickly and keep Army off the scoreboard for most of the game. The key will be if they can also force some quick drives to give the offense a chance to get up multiple scores quickly and have Army playing from behind. If they do that, it’ll be game over early on.
The interior of the Irish defense could be susceptible if Howard Cross isn’t able to play tonight, but that shouldn’t be enough of a weakness for Army to take advantage of. Notre Dame’s linebackers were phenomenal against the Navy, and I expect them to be again this evening. I doubt Army will be as generous with their turnovers as Navy was, but the Irish defense won’t be pushed around. Army might be undefeated and putting up gaudy rushing stats, but they’ve done it against some of the worst defenses in football.
Players to Watch
- Jayden Harrison—While the Irish shouldn’t rely on the pass, there will be plays to be made, and after his 78-yard touchdown was called back last week, I think we see another bomb to Harrison that counts this time.
- Jadarian Price – Love had the long touchdown run last week, so it’s Price’s turn for a long 50+ yard type touchdown run this week.
- Mitchell Evans – He found the endzone last week and looks more and more like his old self each week. Army’s linebackers won’t be able to cover him. For the betting crowd, Evans is once again ~ +300 to score a TD, depending on the sportsbook.
- Xavier Watts – I expect him to get his hands on a turnover every week at this point.
- Rylie Mills – Notre Dame needs him to be a monster in the middle and disrupt the Army rushing attack. We’ve seen him play at a very high level for weeks now; if that continues, look out.
- Jack Kiser – This is the kind of game in which he should shine. His experience against the option should have him in position to make plays. He led Notre Dame in tackles against Navy and likely will lead them in tackles tonight.
- Jaylen Sneed – He was disciplined against Navy and needs to be again tonight. If he gets sucked and leaves the pitch man option, Army will put up some yards.
Prediction Time
Army is better than Navy, but they still aren’t good enough to hang with Notre Dame all night unless the Irish let them by making too many mistakes. If Notre Dame wins the turnover battle, this will be another 20+ point win. If they don’t, the score will be much closer than Notre Dame fans would like. I don’t see this Irish squad playing the way they have been, letting that be the case though. The biggest opponent tonight might be the clock because this will likely be a game where Notre Dame doesn’t get enough possessions. Al Golden’s defense lets up an early score but then suffocates the Army option attack the rest of the night while the offense does enough to pull away in the second half.
Notre Dame 35, Army 10
