After a 49 to 14 dismantling of #19 Army, Marcus Freeman leads his team out west to face their top rival, the Trojans of Southern California. This college football season has been one for the history books, and the Fighting Irish have a great opportunity to go on a run if they can solidify a playoff spot. Lincoln Riley’s Trojans are riding a two game winning streak and would love nothing more than to upset their rivals from South Bend. It is one of the best sports weeks on the calendar, and time for the Fighting Irish to go put an exclamation point on their playoff résumé.
Essential Game Info:
- Game Time: Saturday, November 30th at 3:30 PM ET on CBS
- Location: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, LA, California
- Matchup History: Notre Dame 51-37-5 all-time against USC (Last Meeting 2023: Irish won 48 to 20)
- Rivalry Trophy: Jeweled Shillelagh
- Fact of the Week: The Irish have won 9 of the last 13 matchups against the Trojans.
- Odds: Notre Dame -7.0
Weather
The current game day forecast shows a 19% chance of rain with a high of 69 degrees and a low of 51.
Details
- Conference: Big Ten
- Head Coach: Lincoln Riley
- 2024 Record: 6-5 (4-5)
- 2023 Record: 8-5 (5-4)
USC Storylines:
USC has struggled since they got embarrassed last year by the Irish. When Lincoln Riley’s program headed to South Bend in 2023, they were 6-0 and led by 2022 Heisman winner, Caleb Williams. Since the 49 to 20 beatdown to the Irish, Riley’s Trojans are 8-10.
It will be somewhat of a revenge game for the Irish, as the last time Coach Freeman faced USC in the coliseum, Riley’s team beat them 38 to 27.
The USC Trojans Offense is led by quarterback Jayden Maiava. Since Maiava has taken over the starting role, he is 52 for 81 with 546 passing yards, 4 passing touchdowns, 1 interception, and 3 sacks taken. On the ground, Maiava has 12 attempts for 38 yards (3.2 yard per carry) with 2 rushing scores. The USC rushing attack is led by Woody Marks who has 192 carries for 1,100 yards (5.7 yards per carry) with 9 rushing touchdowns.
Notre Dame Storylines:
Notre Dame is one win away from hosting a home playoff game. It was a chaotic start to the season as the Irish knocked off Texas A & M on the road (extremely difficult) and followed it up with a let down against Northern Illinois. Since then, Coach Freeman has led the Irish to 9 straight victories.
This turnaround has been headlined by one of the best defenses in the country, alongside a tremendous running game with Riley Leonard, Jeremiyah Love, and Jadarian Price. Notre Dame’s passing attack is also peaking late in the season. Last week against one of the best statistical defenses in the country, the Irish compiled 464 yards of total offense (275 yards came on the ground).
Al Golden will face a different challenge this week. Notre Dame Football has one of the best defensive units in the nation, but it is never easy to transition from the triple option into a west coast offensive system. The Irish have continued to wreak havoc with injuries to Benjamin Morrison, Jordan Botelho, and Boubacar out for the season. Notre Dame is hoping to get Howard Cross III back this week or for a potential playoff game (at the worst).
Head-to-Head Matchups:
Notre Dame Offense vs. USC Defense: The Fighting Irish Offense averages 198 yards per game passing and 222 yards rushing, while the USC Defense allows 366 yards per contest.
Statistically the Irish faced a better defense last week with the Army Black Knights (although the teams that they faced allowed for skewed numbers). Nevertheless, the Irish need to build off the offensive momentum from the last month of success.
Last week, the UCLA Bruins compiled 376 yards (more yards than USC, who won the contest) with 265 passing yards and 111 rushing yards.
I give the advantage to Notre Dame in this matchup.
Advantage: Notre Dame
USC Offense vs. Notre Dame Defense: The USC Offense averages 286 yards passing and 144 yards rushing per matchup, while the Fighting Irish Defense allows 273 total yards per game.
The Trojans have played well at home, with their only loss coming by 3 points in overtime to Penn State (who is highly overrated). Notre Dame will be the best defense the Trojans have seen all season, and it will be difficult to get the ball in the endzone (if the Irish can avoid penalties).
Al Golden’s defense has the advantage in this matchup.
Advantage: Notre Dame
Special Teams: The Notre Dame punting units have delivered time after time this year with fake punts (offense) and blocked punts (defense).
However, Marcus Freeman might as well go for it on every 4th down with the Irish field goal unit at this moment. Against Army, Mitch Jeter was 0 for 2 (one was blocked). I still believe he will be ready for the playoffs, since he did go 23 for 25 when he was fully healthy at South Carolina. Also, he went 3 for 3 at Texas A & M to open the season.
On the USC side, kicker Michael Lantz is 14 for 20 with his longest make at 54 yards.
If you look at all the special teams units overall, I give this matchup a tie.
Advantage: Tie
My Prediction:
When Notre Dame lost to Northern Illinois, I was taking it one week at a time. First beat Purdue, then Miami (OH), then #15 Louisville. Each week, this group has improved. I was cautiously optimistic that Coach Freeman, Coach Denbrock, and Coach Golden were too good in order to not be successful with the talent on the roster.
It looks like the “week two” upset may have turned this team into a more humble and determined team. Ironically, Notre Dame may end up getting the highest possible seed allotted to a non-conference champion. Nevertheless, there is still one opportunity left in the regular season.
USC has played well at home and if this game was in South Bend, I would not be giving the Trojans any chance at all. This Notre Dame Defense is transitioning from an almost 100% rushing team (Army), to a pass heavy offense. But, as motivated as this team was last week, I do not see them overlooking USC. Plus, it won’t hurt that a decent percentage of the fans in the stadium will be supporting the Irish.
Similarly, as when the Irish secured a spot in the national championship in 2012 and a slot in the college football playoffs in 2018, I predict Notre Dame will take care of business this Saturday evening on the road.
I have the Irish winning by 22 points.
Prediction: Notre Dame 35, USC 13
