Based on the most recent CFP rankings that were released on Tuesday night, Notre Dame and Alabama could be on a collision course for a first-round matchup in South Bend. If the playoffs started today based on the current rankings, the two would square off in Notre Dame Stadium in the first-ever playoff game in the House That Rockne Built. Even if the Irish move up in the final rankings, the two could still square off.
Notre Dame improved to #4 in the most recent rankings but sits as the 6th seed because of the top four spots going to the conference champions. Alabama moved up two spots and into the 11th seed this week following their win over Auburn and are currently the last non-conference champion in. The current 12th seed is Arizona State – the current highest-ranked Big 12 team.
Depending on how the committee reacts to the conference championship games, Notre Dame could still improve their seeding. Penn State is currently the 5th seed and there has been plenty of debate as to who is the better team between the Lions and Notre Dame, but as is, the Irish are behind them and likely only pass them if they get blown out by Oregon n the Big Ten championship.
While the Irish could jump Penn State, they could also still fall back if Georgia beats Texas in the SEC Championship. The Irish would still likely trail the Longhorns but would also be behind Georgia, with the Bulldogs getting a top-four seed and first-round bye if they win the SEC. If the Irish fall to 7th with Penn State and Texas ahead of them, they’d still host a first-round playoff game but would square off against the 10th seed instead, currently slated to be Indiana.
Alabama, meanwhile, could still potentially be pushed out if SMU loses a close game to Clemson in the ACC Championship. The Mustangs are currently ranked 8th, but if they fall to Clemson in the ACC title game, the Tigers get the automatic bid for the ACC. How the committee would judge a 2-loss SMU that lost their conference title game and a 3-loss Alabama team that was blown out a few weeks ago by 6-6 Oklahoma would be fascinating.
Should Notre Dame move up to the 5 seed, it would be difficult for the Irish to draw Alabama since the Big-12 winner will likely be the 12 seed. Arizona State is currently 15th, and Iowa State is 16th. Maybe if the winner of that game blows the other out, they move up to the 11th seed, but that seems like a stretch. So if Texas beats Georgia and Oregon beats Penn State handily, Notre Dame would likely host the winner of that game unless there is full-on chaos and Boise State loses to UNLV.
Still, it seems like Notre Dame and Alabama could be on a collision course, given the ratings bonanza that would ensure. Anyone would be naive to think that the committee is not considering such things as well – despite what they may or may not say.
Why would Penn St need to get “blown out” for ND to pass them? They are barely 1 spot ahead in the polls and 1 spot ahead in the CFP rankings. If Oregon beats Penn St, then Penn State should fall. If they get blown out, they should be out of the field altogether.
Alabama does not deserve to be in. Miami, South Carolina, Miss St, and a 2-loss SMU would all be more deserving.
I still cant see how penn st is #3? They NEVER win against top 10 or 15 teams, they dont have a big win ALL YEAR!! This is why the system needs to change, between byes for lousy CONF winners & 3rd place teams in sec & big 10 it will be a popularity contest> Won this year by a happless PSU.