The latest rendition of the College Football Playoff projections was issued on Tuesday evening. The most controversial ranking was three-loss Alabama, which made the final cut over two-loss Miami and fellow SEC contenders Ole Miss and South Carolina. Alabama’s inclusion in the rankings would currently project the Crimson Tide to face Notre Dame in the first round inside Notre Dame Stadium – a game that the Irish would be favored in based off of hypothetical odds released by some books.
Based on the current rankings, here’s how the seeding would play out if the playoffs started this weekend.
Conference Champions (first-round byes)
- No. 1 (1) Oregon (12-0)
- No. 2 (2) Texas (11-1)
- No. 3 (8) SMU (10-2)
- No. 4 (10) Boise State (11-1)
First Round Matchups
- No. 5 (3) Penn State (11-1)
- No. 12 (15) Arizona State (10-2)
- No. 6 (4) Notre Dame (11-1)
- No. 11 (11) Alabama (9-3)
- No. 7 (5) Georgia (10-2)
- No. 10 (8) Indiana (11-1)
- No. 8 (6) Ohio State (10-2)
- No. 9 (7) Tennessee (10-2)
Outside Looking
- No. 12 Miami (10-2)
- No. 13 Ole Miss (9-3)
- No. 14 South Carolina (9-3)
- No. 16 Iowa State (10-2) – can clinch by winning Big 12 over Arizona State
- No. 17 Clemson (9-3) – can clinch by winning ACC over SMU
- No. 18 BYU (10-2)
- No. 19 Missouri (9-3)
- No. 20 UNLV (10-2) – can clinch by winning MWC over Boise State
Aside from the projected rankings from the playoff committee, some projected first-round game lines were issued by Senior Writer Collin Wilson at the Action Network.
- Arizona State at Penn State -13.5
- Tennessee at Ohio State -6
- Alabama at Notre Dame -3
- Indiana at Georgia – 8.5
All the first-round home teams are favored, with Notre Dame likely being the surprise of the bunch over perennial powerhouse Alabama. However, it should be worth mentioning that two of Alabama’s three losses came against opponents that were 6-6 on the season. Both of those opponents, however, had wins over FSC foes. Without those wins, both were just 5-6 on the season.
It is notable that while the Irish would hypothetically be favored, the home team generally gets 3 points for playing at home, so if it were on a neutral field, it would be a pick ’em. The projected line for Notre Dame is the closest of any of the current potential first-round matchups right now. It is also worth noting that Notre Dame 8-0 against the spread in their last eight games and 10-2 ATS this season – the two times the Irish didn’t cover were the NIU loss and the win over Miami of Ohio.
Ohio State hypothetically being favored by six points over Tennessee after how the Buckeyes looked at home against Michigan last weekend is a bit surprising. It comes as no surprise, however, to see Penn State and Georgia both as favorites in their current projected first-round matchups.
Totally agree. Likewise the Penn State bias. ND should be 5 and PSU 6 at best.
I hope Oregon crushes PSU to likewise show the PSU bias.
Regardless, I like the current projected path. With a win over Bama, ND would potentially match up with Texas and potentially meet Oregon in the championship game.
However, lots of surprises this year in college football. So hold onto your hat. The playoffs should be very entertaining.
One game at a time, one game at a time…….
You don’t have to wonder if there is Alabama bias do you? Some haters love to point out a ND bias. But come on. 3 losses, 2 losses to mediocre teams. How the hell does Alabama get in if there is no Alabama bias with that kind of record. The W-L record should count for something here. They’re telling us there are no other 1 or 2 loss teams more deserving to be in the NC Playoffs? :/
Honestly, no matter who Alabama ends up against I hope they get blown out if for no other reason to prove there’s Alabama bias and that they didn’t belong in the first place. Oy