The hope all week was that Notre Dame would move up to the 5th seed in the College Football Playoffs and potentially improve a path that previously looked like it was leading to a showdown with Alabama. Instead, Texas and SMU both lost, and Notre Dame dropped to the 7th seed, while Alabama fell out of the playoffs altogether. Despite moving down, however, Notre Dame actually got a much more favorable draw than it looked like they’d have at this time last week.
Instead of Notre Dame preparing to host Alabama, the Irish are prepping for in-state foe Indiana. The upstart Hoosiers were the surprise of the college football world this year as they cruised to an 11-1 record, with their lone loss coming to fellow playoff team Ohio State. That one loss was by 23 points, but more on that later. Even though Alabama lost to two different 6-6 football teams, they are still ‘Bama, and that roster is still loaded with talent. Even though they didn’t show it this year, they can beat anyone on any given weekend. They did, however, prove that they could also lose to anyone on any weekend. Still, avoiding a team with a loaded roster like that has to be seen as a positive for Notre Dame’s chances of making a run.
When breaking down the entire path to a title game appearance for Notre Dame, the Irish ended up with a better draw than some of the teams ahead of them, including teams that got a bye.
First Round – Home game versus Indiana
Indiana is a pretty good football team, but in their only game against a ranked opponent, they lost by 23 to Ohio State and could barely muster up any offense. The Buckeyes aren’t necessarily known for their toughness, either. Indiana scored first in the game but not again until there were less than 2:00 left, and they trailed by 24 points at the time. No reasonable Notre Dame fan could look at the Hoosiers versus Alabama and say they thought ‘Bama would have been an easier draw.
Indiana doesn’t have a win over a ranked opponent this year of any kind – they didn’t beat anyone while they were ranked and didn’t beat anyone that ended up being ranked by the end of the year. They won their games convincingly along the way, but other than Ohio State, their next most formidable opponent was probably 7-5 Michigan. You could argue that Army, Georgia Tech, and Louisville all would have been the second toughest opponents on Indiana’s schedule had they faced them.
Again, Indiana is a good team, but you are expected to play good teams in the playoffs. Regarding first-round draws, I don’t think Notre Dame could have asked for much better here.
Quarterfinals – Sugar Bowl versus Georgia with perhaps a backup QB
If Notre Dame can get past Indiana, their next opponent would be Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. Normally, that would make any Notre Dame fan’s stomach turn, but this year’s Bulldog team doesn’t have quite the same bite as previous year’s title winners. Georiga might also be compromised in this game, depending on the health of starting quarterback Carson Beck. There were some rumors that the injury he suffered in the SEC Championship Game could also keep him out of the Sugar Bowl. If that is the case, that would make the task of beating Georgia much less daunting.
Georgia nearly lost to its in-state rival Georgia Tech to end the regular season and has been much more vulnerable than some of the juggernaut squads Kirby Smart has built in recent years. Obviously, you’d rather get in the bracket with either Boise State or Arizona State, but Georgia without Beck is a different task than Georgia with Beck.
Semifinals – Survivor of SMU/Penn State/Boise State
The final obstacle to a title appearance in this bracket is whoever emerges from the SMU/Penn State winner versus Boise State. In looking at all three of those teams, none are teams that would probably put too much fear into Notre Dame, given the matchups. Penn State hung with Oregon more than I thought they would, but the Ducks also had several chances to put that game away and didn’t. Penn State head coach James Franklin has a record of 1-14 against top-5 opponents and 3-19 against top-10. SMU just lost to Clemson with a chance to win the ACC. Boise State got the bye because they won the Mountain West and were ranked higher than ACC winner Clemson, but they are also technically ranked behind Notre Dame.
None of those opponents would be easy, but again, no opponent at this point should be easy. However, Notre Dame fans are used to the Irish getting paired with juggernauts in the playoffs. The 2012 Alabama team that blew out the Irish in the title game was loaded with NFL talent. In 2018, the Clemson roster was absolutely stacked with Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne, Tee Higgins, and Justyn Ross, among others. When the Irish faced Alabama in the 2020 Rose Bowl, the Crimson Tide might have had the best wide receiving corps of all time. None of the teams in Notre Dame’s bracket this year have that kind of roster.
It won’t be easy, but Notre Dame has the opportunity to not only make an appearance in the playoffs but also make some noise.
