When the College Football Playoff (CFP) matchups were announced yesterday, Notre Dame found itself hosting instate foe Indiana in a matchup no one could have predicted back in September. The Fighting Irish initially opened as sizable favorites over the upstart Hoosiers, with the line opening at -8.5 for Notre Dame before quickly moving to -7.5 and holding steady since then. The immediate adjustment suggests that while Notre Dame enters as the clear favorite, early bettors see enough value in taking Indiana and the points to move the line.
Below, we’ll break down the key factors influencing this evolving betting line, highlighting recent performances, key statistical insights, and some betting trends for both teams heading into the first ever playoff game in Notre Dame Stadium.
Notre Dame’s Betting Trends & History
Notre Dame has earned its place in the CFP through balanced performances on both sides of the ball. They’ve showcased a powerful offense capable of surpassing 400 yards per game and a defense adept at limiting explosive plays and keeping points low – at least until the USC game. While raw on-field attributes are crucial in winning the game, the betting trends offer an additional perspective on how the Irish have performed for bettors throughout the season.
- Against the Spread (ATS): The Fighting Irish have demonstrated solid form against the spread in recent matchups. Notre Dame is 9-1 ATS since their loss to Northern Illinois. The only game in that span that Notre Dame didn’t cover was the win over Miami of Ohio.
- Notre Dame is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games at home, including five wins in a row at home ATS
- Totals: In many of Notre Dame’s recent outings, defensive efficiency has contributed to lower-scoring affairs for their opponents, but not the OVER has hit more frequently in Notre Dame games this year. In the last 10 games, the OVER has hit 7 times, including in the last two games (wins over Army and USC). The UNDER hit against Virginia, Miami OH, and Georgia Tech.
- The OVER has hit in 7 of the 10 home games for Notre Dame
Indiana’s Betting Trends & History
Indiana’s journey to the CFP might not have the same storied history as Notre Dame, but the Hoosiers have made strides this year en route to an 11-1 record while being almost equally as impressive from a betting perspective.
- ATS: Indiana is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games, with their two “losses” coming against Ohio State, where they couldn’t cover the 10.5 points they were getting, and Michigan, where they couldn’t cover the 14.5 points they were giving.
- Indiana is 3-1 ATS on the road this year after playing in just four road games.
- Totals: The over has hit in 8 of the last 10 games for Indiana this year. The UNDER hit in just their wins over Michigan and Wisconsin.
- The over hit in all four of Indiana’s road games this year suggesting that maybe their defense doesn’t travel that well.
The line in this game will move some more between now and December 20, but the initial line suggests that Vegas at least thinks Notre Dame will handle Indiana in the first playoff game of the season. The early money definitely favored Indiana, but generally speaking, the “smart” money tends to come in at the end, so it will be interesting to see if the line moves back toward Notre Dame or if it continues to tighten between now and kickoff on the 20th. Our weekly “What Though the Odds” post will have a full breakdown of the spread as of next week, with even more background on the betting trends from both teams.
