The first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff has arrived! Per ticket prices, this is undoubtedly the biggest matchup in round one. Marcus Freeman’s Fighting Irish are riding a 10-game winning streak and dominating opponents during that stretch. Meanwhile, Curt Cignetti has led the Indiana Hoosiers to their best season in program history and are vocally confident about their chances in this game. It will be the first Friday Night Playoff matchup ever at Notre Dame Stadium, does it get any better than this?
Essential Game Info:
- Game Time: Friday, December 20th at 8:00 PM ET on ABC/ ESPN
- Location: Notre Dame Stadium, South Bend, Indiana
- Matchup History: Notre Dame is 23-5-1 all-time against Indiana (Last Meeting 1991: Irish won 49 to 27)
- Fact of the Week: The Irish and Hoosiers met 5 times in Indianapolis (between 1906 to 1921)
- Odds: Notre Dame -7.5
Weather
The current game day forecast shows a 20% chance of snow with a high of 27 degrees and a low of 17. (When Article Published)
Game Details
- Conference: Big Ten
- Head Coach: Curt Cignetti
- 2024 Record: 11-1 (8-1)
- 2023 Record: 3-9 (1-8)
Indiana Storylines:
Coach Cignetti has led Indiana to the best season in program history. After a 3-9 season last Fall, the Hoosiers fired head coach Tom Allen (now DC at Penn State). Indiana University selected 63-year old James Madison head coach Curt Cignetti to take over in Bloomington.
With the help of transfers from across the country (many from James Madison) Cignetti was able to lead the Hoosiers to a historic season in just year one.
What about Indiana’s strength of schedule? Not to say the Hoosiers cannot upset the Irish (because Northern Illinois, who is not as good as Indiana certainly did), but they have only beaten one team with a winning record this year (Michigan). These two programs had one common opponent in the Purdue Boilermakers. Notre Dame beat the Boilers 66 to 7, while Indiana beat them 66 to 0.
Indiana lost to the only team on their schedule that is currently ranked. Curt Cignetti and company certainly think that they will be more prepared this time around, facing another top ten opponent on the road (lost to Ohio State in November).
The Hoosier Offense is led by quarterback Kurtis Rourke. In 2024, Rourke went 202 for 287 (70%) with 2,827 passing yards, 27 passing touchdowns, 4 interceptions, and 17 sacks taken. On the ground, the Hoosier quarterback has 41 attempts for -25 rushing yards, with 2 touchdowns.
Running backs Justice Ellison and Ty Son Lawton. This year, Ellison has 148 carries for 811 yards (5.5 yards per carry) with 10 rushing scores, while Lawton has 131 attempts for 634 yards (4.8 yards per carry) with 12 rushing touchdowns.
Notre Dame Storylines:
What will the environment be like in South Bend? I anticipate this game to be just like Ohio State at Notre Dame last fall. Inside Notre Dame Stadium, fans stood the entire contest, were loud on every single down, and were given “light up” wristbands.
With the price of these tickets, cold weather, and playoff circumstances, I do not foresee anyone sitting down during this matchup. It should be extremely difficult to hear for the Hoosiers.
Riley Leonard is the “x factor” in this game. Fans all know what Jeremiyah Love and Jadrian Price can contribute out of the backfield. The Fighting Irish will undoubtedly want to establish the run, but Indiana will be looking to stop the ground game.
If Leonard can keep the Indiana Defense honest with keeping the ball in the “read option” or by hitting a big pass play downfield, the Irish Offense will be able to open up the primary rushing attack with Love and Price.
Al Golden faces his biggest test of the season. Led by Kurtis Rourke, the Hoosiers present a tough challenge through the air, especially since the Irish will be without several key players on defense (specifically potential first round Draft Pick Benjamin Morrison).
After watching the Indiana vs Ohio State game, crowd noise and pressuring Rourke will be the key to victory. The Buckeyes tallied 5 sacks on the Hoosier quarterback. Notre Dame’s ability to get pressure on the quarterback with rushing four and strategic blitzing will mean everything in this battle.
Head-to-Head Matchups:
Notre Dame Offense vs. Indiana Defense: The Fighting Irish Offense averages 196 yards per game passing and 225 yards rushing, while the Indiana Defense allows 245 yards per contest.
The story of this game will be Notre Dame’s rushing attack against Indiana’s front seven. If the Fighting Irish can establish a run against the Hoosiers, it will be a good indication for success. However, if Indiana forces Riley Leonard to make pass after pass to move the football, this matchup will lean towards the Hoosiers.
It will take hard earned yardage, but I believe the Irish can do enough in the rushing attack to score points.
Advantage: Notre Dame
Indiana Offense vs. Notre Dame Defense: The Indiana Offense averages 265 yards passing and 174 yards rushing per matchup, while the Fighting Irish Defense allows 297 total yards per game.
The Hoosiers have put up a lot of points, but how did they perform against the Michigan and Ohio State defenses? Indiana scored 20 points against the Wolverines and 15 points against the Buckeyes. I believe Notre Dame’s Defense is even better than those Big Ten schools.
Even with the multitude of injuries, Al Golden’s defense has stood strong all season. Indiana has a solid passing attack, but nothing better than the Irish faced against the USC Trojans in the final week of the season.
I give Notre Dame the advantage at home.
Advantage: Notre Dame
Special Teams: Notre Dame’s Mitch Jeter has not been healthy most of the year. He is 6 for 12 this season, with his longest conversion at 48 yards. The Irish have used walk on’s sporadically this year. But, if healthy, Jeter is still 29 for 37 in his career and hopefully can get his confidence back in the playoffs, when called upon.
Conversely, Indiana’s Nicolas Radicic is 9 for 10 with his longest conversion at 41 yards.
The Hoosiers have the advantage in this category.
Advantage: Indiana
My Prediction:
This game is the national championship in South Bend. Well, that should be the mindset of the players, coaches, and even fans at Notre Dame Stadium. Everyone needs to leave it all on the field on Friday, and if the Irish win, then fans can move on to the next round.
I have watched almost every single game by these two schools, and I’m confident that the Fighting Irish will come away with a victory. In recent memory, Notre Dame has fared well in big night games (beat #7 Clemson 35 to 14 in 2022, Irish beat #10 USC 48 to 20 in 2023, but lost 17 to 14 against #7 Ohio State last year, in a game the Irish gave away in the final seconds).
Crowd noise and the trenches will be the key to this game. Can the Irish get pressure on Rourke? Can Notre Dame establish a consistent rushing attack with Jeremiyah Love? It might take a few quarters, but I believe the answer to these two questions is “Yes”.
Indiana has a good team and coaching staff, but Curt Cignetti is not going to “outsmart” Marcus Freeman, Mike Denbrock, and Al Golden, like he has other coaching staffs this season. With talent, coaching, and ultimately energy the crowd will provide, I have the Fighting Irish defeating the Indiana Hoosiers by 11 points.
Prediction: Notre Dame 31, Indiana 20
