A variety of numbers offer differing takes on Friday night’s playoff matchup between Notre Dame and Indiana. Both teams enter the crucial contest with 11-1 records, combining strong offenses and defenses, yet the only number for this game that truly matters is the final score.
Listed below are some of the most important numbers that may very well determine which team advances to a Sugar Bowl semifinal clash against the Georgia Bulldogs on New Year’s night:
Stopping the Run
Current weather forecasts indicate a small chance of snow during the game, with most of the precipitation set to come earlier in the day. Whether or not that affects the respective passing games is uncertain, but both teams want to establish the run quickly to gain the early momentum.
Both teams have strong rushing attacks, with Notre Dame averaging nearly 225 yards per game, powered by the tandem of Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price. Indiana has its own running duo of Justice Ellison and Ty Son Lawton for 1,445 yards and 22 touchdowns. Where the Irish hold the edge is behind center, with Riley Leonard much more dangerous out of the pocket than Hoosier signal caller Kurtis Roarke.
When it comes to defense, it’s Indiana that holds the edge, sitting at the top of the rushing defense lost for all FBS teams by allowing just 71 yards per game. Comparatively, Notre Dame is 51st with a respectable 139 yards per contest. When it comes to yards-per-carry, the Hoosiers held opponents to an average of just 2.5 yards while the Irish allowed an average of 3.7 yards on each rushing play.
Notre Dame’s numbers took a hit in the regular season finale when Southern Cal managed to rush for 197 yards on 28 carries for a glaring 7.0 yards each time it toted the ball. Fixing that glitch in an otherwise strong campaign is imperative for the Irish to avoid seeing their season come to a screeching halt.
Indiana only allowed four teams to break the 100-yard threshold in rushing this season, including the 115 given up in its lone loss, the 38-15 defeat at Ohio State. Of course, as noted in an article last week, the Hoosiers’ strength of schedule may offer hints as to why they had success. Regardless, holding down the numbers of the Notre Dame ground game may end up going a long way in allowing Indiana’s season to continue.
Red Zone Concerns
An obvious way to project a winner on Friday night is to choose the team that has more success in the red zone. On that front, both teams were excellent in this category, with Notre Dame converting 41 of 49 opportunities. A total of 37 tries resulted in touchdowns, with four field goals making up the difference. Indiana was much more active, converting 62 of 66 chances with those conversions resulting in 54 touchdowns and eight field goals.
Of potential concern to Notre Dame is the fact that entering the final three weeks of the regular season, it had turned 33 trips into 30 scores, including 26 touchdowns. In those final weeks, however, the Irish twice failed to come away with any points against Virginia and Army, respectively. Against Southern Cal, another drive that came up empty was the result.
Indiana’s success in the red zone was as close to perfect as a team could get, with only a goose egg against Maryland being considered a failure. The other three came in a pair of games in which they outscored Western Illinois and Purdue by the eye-popping collective score of 143 to three.
Both teams have good kickers, with that factor potentially determining success. Yet, the combination of the aforementioned weather concerns and the leg of Notre Dame kicker Mitch Jeter as he continues to come back from injury are why Notre Dame needs to penetrate Indiana’s red zone as much as possible.
Turnovers Matter
The scourge of coughing up the ball, whether on the ground or through the air, can be deadly in any game. In this particular matchup, it could send one team home until next summer. Indiana has been slightly better in handling the ball, with just eight turnovers on the season. Four of those turnovers came in the 42-28 win over Maryland on Sept. 28.
Notre Dame’s offense has 12 turnovers on the year, including four in the last three games. The Irish have had slightly more trouble in the fumble department, with seven miscues. Meanwhile, Indiana’s only fumble outside the two in the aforementioned Maryland game was against Ohio State, its only loss.
On defense, Notre Dame has forced 28 turnovers compared to Indiana’s 23. It seems notable that the only time that the Irish defense failed to take the ball away from an opponent this year was in the Northern Illinois loss. On the other side, in half of the Hoosiers’ games, they managed less than two turnovers. That includes just one each in the two games against schools with winning records.
