The long wait is almost over. In just a few hours, Notre Dame returns to action to host the 7th-seeded Indiana Hoosiers in the first-ever home playoff game in Notre Dame Stadium. The Irish enter as the favorite but face an Indiana team that is more than just a Cinderella story. The Hoosiers very well could be the best team the Irish face all year long. Who will the clock strike midnight for later tonight? Let’s dig in.
What Worries Me
Too much early passing
Indiana has the top-ranked run defense in the country, but it has also not faced a running offense nearly as potent as Notre Dame’s all year. Their rushing defensive stats are inflated because they faced some pretty bad rushing offenses all year long. Some staffs, however, could look at their run defense and overreact and pass too much early to open up the run. Notre Dame got here by running the ball with Jeremiyah Love, Jadarian Price, and Riley Leonard. They shouldn’t shy away from running the ball early. If the Irish come out and try airing it out early to “outsmart” Indiana, it will play right into their hands.
I hope we will see more of Riley Leonard running on designed runs than we have in recent weeks out of passing looks, if anything. Notre Dame should not be afraid to run the ball on Indiana. If they are, we could be in for another slow start.
Fluky turnovers
In elimination games, the biggest concern is fluke plays. Think back to the NIU game and how much that insane, long NIU touchdown changed the entire complexion of the game. If Notre Dame protects the football tonight and makes Indiana earn all of their points, they should be in good shape. In Indiana’s lone loss this season, they had all of the fluky plays go against them otherwise the Ohio State game would have been closer in the end.
Riley Leonard has been great at protecting the football over the 10-game winning streak. Notre Dame needs more of that tonight. He did have the one bad interception against USC. Any plays like that tonight could cause the Irish to be in trouble.
What Doesn’t Worry Me
Notre Dame’s pass defense
Notre Dame had one of, if not the, most efficient pass defense all season long. However, USC had success on that pass defense by relying on a lot of deep dropback shots. The Trojans continually targeted Christian Gray, and it worked with several chunk plays and pass interference penalties. Indiana’s passing game is very solid, but they don’t have the same skill at receiver to rely on winning 50/50 balls all night the way USC was able to. And even then, it wasn’t sustainable as Notre Dame’s secondary eventually put a nail in USC’s coffin with back-to-back pick-6s.
The Irish secondary will be tested tonight but will be up for the task. Gray could have gone into a shell after the way the first 3.5 quarters went for him against USC, but he kept battling. Leonard Moore is a Freshman All-American. Despite what any media outlet or award committee says, Xavier Watts is the best safety in college football. The Irish secondary will provide game-changing plays again tonight.
Notre Dame’s pass rush getting home
Indiana has had a tough time protecting quarterback Kurtis Rourke over the second half of the season after one of the few injuries they suffered all year long weakened the integrity of their offensive line. Over the final six weeks of the year, Indiana was extremely boom or bust on 3rd down – they either took sacks or made big plays, it seemed. Notre Dame’s pass rush took a hit this season without Boubacar Traore or Jordan Botelho, but I’m confident that Al Golden will cook up some pressures tonight that will get home. Having Howard Cross back at full strength will be a huge boost for a defensive line that sorely missed him against USC. Had Cross been available against USC, the Trojans would not have had all the time they did to take all of those deep shots.
Players to Watch
- Bryce Young – Something tells me the freshman pass rusher makes a big play tonight on more than just special teams.
- Jadarian Price – All the attention will be on Jeremiyah Love, but Price’s running style could lead to him having some big opportunities tonight against the Hoosier defense.
- Jordan Faison – Notre Dame will need some key third downs at various points tonight, and Faison’s shiftiness will convert on a couple.
- Jaden Greathouse – Greathouse seemed to get more and more comfortable with Leonard over the course of the season. Look for him to get open down the seam for a potential big play.
- Mitchell Evans – He has touchdowns in three of the last four games after a slow start recovering from last year’s injury. He makes it four of five tonight.
- Riley Leonard – No duh here, but if Leonard plays clean, Notre Dame wins and advances to the quarterfinals.
Prediction Time
Notre Dame opened as an 8.5 favorite before settling in around 7.0 so most of the betting public is placing their money on Indiana. If Notre Dame plays their game, however, I just don’t see how the Irish drop this one. Indiana is a very good football team, but the Irish are more talented up and down the depth chart and have been playing with an edge since that inexplicable loss to NIU. I expect it to be close at half before Notre Dame pulls away in the third quarter.
Notre Dame 31, Indiana 17
Sinclair the NIU game I’ve been worried about every game, and the Irish have placated my concerns almost every time. I will be surprised if the offense doesn’t put 40 points on the board. Some of those points will come from the defense.
Go Irish!!!
Zero turnovers equates to 37-13 Notre Dame.
31 points assumes we make a FG.
What worries me? Our kicker.