Wednesday night’s win-or-go-home Sugar Bowl matchup between Notre Dame and the Georgia Bulldogs pits two teams that have managed to make it this far despite injury woes. Any depth questions about the respective rosters have faded, with the Bulldogs listed as a slim favorite.
The final numbers of the game have yet to be calculated but some aspects will get a closer scrutiny throughout the contest. They very well could turn out to be a litmus test to determine which team advances to the Orange Bowl on Jan. 9.
Below are three areas to consider:
Dogs on the Run
The switch from Carson Beck to Gunner Stockton at quarterback likely means that Georgia will have to rely more heavily on its running game. Stockton put up limited passing numbers in the SEC title game but that may have been a case of being rushed into the game. With nearly a month to prepare, Stockton presumably is now more comfortable under center.
Still, if the Bulldogs’ running game does take center stage, the duo of Trevor Etienne and Nate Frazier will handle most of the carries. They combined to gain over 1,200 yards and score 17 touchdowns this season, so shutting them down or at least limiting any damage they can deliver might be the ticket to the playoff semifinals.
Notre Dame undoubtedly noticed that Georgia’s two losses this year came during the least productive days for the Bulldogs’ ground game. In the 41-34 loss at Alabama, Georgia’s rushers managed just 3.08 yards per carry. Six weeks later, their struggle was even worse, picking up just 1.79 yards per carry in the 28-10 loss at Mississippi.
The Bulldogs had their most consistent success running on first down, averaging just under five yards per carry. That number dipped to 3.75 on second down, with third-down success dependent on the yardage needed, When it was third-and-short (three yards or less), Georgia averaged 5.1 yards but anything but in passing situations, that number was just 19 yards on 30 carries.
Even if the Irish manage to control the Bulldog running game, Georgia does have receiving weapons like Arian Smith and Dillon Bell who hauled in a combined 84 passes. More germane to the running game, they also carried the ball a total of 12 times, averaging over 12 yards per carry, so Al Golden needs to be on top of his game to combat such situations.
Bringing Heat
When Georgia does go to the air. regularly delivering enough pressure is likely to increase the chances of a Notre Dame victory. The evidence to support that theory can be seen from this year’s numbers. In the eight games where the Irish picked up multiple sacks, they outscored opponents 319 to 88, and they had no sacks in their one loss.
During the regular season, Notre Dame averaged 2.5 sacks per game and then added three in the playoff win over Indiana. Bringing down the quarterback doesn’t even have to be eventual result since the Irish were also prolific in quarterback hurries, finishing with 44 on the year. The two highest numbers in this category came in clutch victories over Louisville and Southern Cal, so any pressure will be welcome.
Georgia has shown some vulnerability when it comes to protecting the quarterback. Beck’s season-ending injury came as a result of a heavy rush and the Bulldogs allowed 21 takedowns on the year. Two of the worst performances came in the aforementioned losses, with Mississippi collecting five sacks and Alabama three.
Even when Georgia emerged with a victory, the opposing pass rush occasionally made life difficult for the Bulldogs. In the regular season finale. Georgia won a wild 44-42 game over Georgia Tech, allowing two sacks in the overtime thriller. One week later in the SEC championship game, another overtime clash against Texas resulted in three sacks allowed.
Red Zone Challenge
Keeping Georgia out of the red zone or just holding the Bulldogs to a field goal presents a stiff challenge for the Notre Dame defense. Georgia has hit red zone territory 58 times this year and put points on the board all but four times, with 42 of those scores (78 percent) resulting in touchdowns.
In three of the four games where the Bulldogs came up short in this area, the Georgia defense had its issues. The unit allowed an average of 38 points per game in those contests, with the final score a mixed bag of two wins, one an overtime thriller, and the loss at Alabama.
Avoiding that situation entirely would be a positive sign for the Irish since Georgia’s two worst games in this department had the Bulldogs on their heels. The first time came in the 13-12 win over Kentucky on Sept. 14, when Georgia only managed three trips to the red zone and needed a clutch fourth-quarter drive to get the victory. The latter effort resulted in just two trips and came in the 28-10 loss at Mississippi on Nov. 9.
