Notre Dame Football Primer: Irish face Penn State in the Orange Bowl

After the biggest victory for Notre Dame Football this century, the Irish must turn their attention to a Semifinal matchup against Penn State. This game will be a clash of northern schools who built their programs based on physicality and defense. Marcus Freeman and James Franklin are one victory away from a spot in the national championship game, a mark neither program has won since the 1980s. Everything is on the line this Thursday Night in the Orange Bowl, this is what college football is all about!

Essential Game Info:

• Game Time: Thursday, January 9th at 7:30 PM ET on ESPN
• Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, Florida
• Matchup History: Notre Dame is 9-9-1 all-time against the Nittany Lions (Last Meeting 2007: Penn State won 31 to 10)
• Orange Bowl History: Notre Dame is 2-3 in 5 appearances, Penn State is 4-1
• Fact of the Week: The last time these two programs played in a bowl game was the 1976 Gator Bowl, where the Fighting Irish won 20 to 9.
• Odds: Notre Dame -2.0

Details

• Conference: Big Ten
• Head Coach: James Franklin
• 2024 Record: 13-2 (8-2)
• 2023 Record: 10-3 (7-2)

Penn State Storylines: 

Penn State vs Notre Dame will showcase an old school brand of football. These programs have not met since their home and home series in 2006 through 2007. They met numerous times during the 1980s and 1990s, and this matchup could even be considered a rivalry at one point.

How have the Nittany Lions looked this year? James Franklin’s program faced two common opponents with Notre Dame, USC and Purdue. Penn State defeated USC 33 to 30 in overtime (Irish won 49 to 35), while the Nittany Lions beat Purdue 49 to 10 (Irish won 66 to 7). Certainly, beating inferior competition by a few more points than another team does not give us the best indication of the Orange Bowl outcome.

Penn State lost 20 to 13 against Ohio State (home), escaped Minnesota with a 26 to 5 victory, and fell to Oregon 45 to 37 in the Big Ten Championship. In the playoffs, James Franklin’s group beat Smu 38 to 10 (home), and Boise State 31 to 14 in the Fiesta Bowl.

The Penn State Offense will be led by quarterback Drew Allar. This year he is 250 for 371 (67%) with 3,192 passing yards, 24 touchdowns, 7 interceptions, and 18 sacks. On the ground, Allar has 90 attempts for 285 yards (3.2 yards per carry) with 6 rushing scores.

Kaytron Allen and Nicholas “Nick” Singleton headline the Nittany Lion rushing attack. This year, Allen has 201 carries for 1,026 yards (5 yards per carry) with 8 rushing touchdowns, while Singleton has 157 attempts for 1,015 yards (6.5 yards per attempt) with 9 rushing scores.

Notre Dame Storylines: 

The Irish are coming off their first New Year’s Six Bowl victory in three decades. Prior to Thursday, the last time Notre Dame Football won a “New Year’s Six Bowl” was the 1994 Cotton Bowl against Texas A&M (I was not even born). For Irish fans who watched inferior Notre Dame teams face Alabama in the 2012 Title, Clemson in 2018, or Alabama in 2020, this certainly was a different Notre Dame team last week.

The victory over the Georgia Bulldogs was overdue, but as any successful person would say, there is no complacency in sports, and for a program that has won 11 national championships, just making the College Football Playoff Semifinals is not enough.

Irish fans should expect another defensive battle in the Orange Bowl. Both Notre Dame and Penn State are historically physical teams and this year is no different. Thursday’s matchup is likely to be a lower scoring game as both teams want to establish the run and impose their will on defense.

In heavyweight battles, turnovers and penalties will play a major factor. Last week, the Irish forced 2 turnovers, but had 10 penalties for 75 yards. Marcus Freeman’s team cannot afford so many costly mistakes against Penn State.

Riley Leonard’s rushing ability will be the difference. I expect the Irish Offense to move the ball a little more than they were able to against Georgia. Turnovers and kick returns helped the Irish look more successful on offense than they actually were against the Bulldogs.

In the Sugar Bowl, Leonard went 15 for 24 with 90 passing yards and 1 passing touchdown. On the ground, he had 14 carries for 80 yards (5.7 yards per carry) with his longest rush coming at 32 yards.

I also anticipate Jeremiyah Love to be more involved this week since he only had six carries for 19 yards. He undoubtedly will be motivated to make a more substantial impact. He was banged up at the end of the Sugar Bowl, but all indications point towards him playing against Penn State.

Head-to-Head Matchups:

Notre Dame Offense vs. Penn State Defense: The Fighting Irish Offense averages 189 yards per game passing and 218 yards rushing, while the Penn State Defense allows 289 total yards per contest. 

Early in the Sugar Bowl, offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock was getting a feel on how to attack the Georgia Bulldogs. Although the Irish did not light up the scoreboard, they were able to be successful in the second half against the Georgia Bulldogs defense. This will definitely have them prepared to play another tremendous defense this week.

The Nittany Lions have one of the best defensive units in the country and will try to replicate the successes that the Bulldogs had last week. They attempt to stop Jeremiyah Love and force Riley Leonard to beat them with his arm and legs.

Advantage: Tie

Penn State Offense vs. Notre Dame Defense: The Penn State Offense averages 234 yards passing and 202 yards rushing per matchup, while the Fighting Irish Defense allows 295 total yards per game.

The Nittany Lions put up 38 points on SMU (at home) and 31 points on Boise State. Yes, Penn State scored a lot of points on relatively inferior competition the past few weeks, but they will face their toughest challenge since earlier in the year against Ohio State. And I believe Notre Dame’s defense is even better than that Buckeyes unit.

Al Golden’s defense held Georgia to 2 for 12 on 3rd downs, 0 for 3 on 4th downs, only 66 rushing yards, and forced 2 turnovers. Once again, Notre Dame’s defense was the “star of the show” in Louisiana. They must play at an elite level, if the Fighting Irish want to advance to the national title.

Advantage: Notre Dame

Special Teams: Notre Dame’s Mitch Jeter is 11 for 18 this season with his longest conversion at 49 yards. However, most of the season he was not healthy. In the playoffs, Jeter is 5 for 6 with his only miss coming on a blocked attempt.

Conversely, Penn State’s Ryan Barker is 14 for 17 with his longest conversion at 49 yards.

Advantage: Tie

My Prediction:

I think that Penn State is a really good team, but not better than Notre Dame. They lost to the only opponents on their schedule that matched their talent level and benefited from playing two of the worst teams in the playoffs. Conversely, Notre Dame faced a Georgia team that I believe was just as good, if not better than Penn State.

With that being said, I do think this will be another low scoring matchup similar to Notre Dame Georgia last week, or Ohio State Penn State earlier this season. The Irish scored on a kickoff return and a short field on a Georgia turnover. Notre Dame learned how to move the football on a strong Bulldogs Defense last week and can carry that momentum against Penn State.

Based on the body of work by the two schools, I believe Notre Dame is the better team. But as we saw last week, turnovers and penalties can be the difference in these heavyweight showdowns.

I have the Fighting Irish winning the Orange Bowl by a touchdown and advancing to the National Championship Game in Atlanta.

Prediction: Notre Dame 27, Penn State 20