Both Notre Dame and Penn State have put up numbers this season that have gotten them this far, including the baker’s dozen worth of wins each has compiled. Yet, putting those numbers to work against formidable competition doesn’t always add up, with the Irish hoping that luck is once again on their side.
Below is a look at some of the numbers worth watching:
Grinding It Out: Notre Dame
All season long, Notre Dame has had an edge with a mobile quarterback. two top running backs as well as a host of talented reserves to supplement their work. However, this unit will now be pitted against a Penn State ground game that has two thousand-yard rushers who can deliver an equal amount of damage if not held in check.
The combination of Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price has gained a total of nearly 1,800 yards this season, with Love breaking the 1,000-yard threshold against Georgia. In addition, Riley Leonard can take off at any time and has picked up 831 yards while setting a new single-season record for Irish quarterbacks with 15 touchdowns.
Love’s dramatic 98-yard scoring run against Indiana would seemingly indicate that he’s 100 percent. However, that one play came after he’d left the Southern Cal game with a knee problem, then tweaked the injury in the Georgia win. Given the magnitude of the game, Love will likely be back behind Leonard but may end up giving way to Price.
That’s certainly not a bad thing, especially since Price will have freshman Aeneas Williams and others to offer him a breather. Price’s forte this year has been his ability to pick up yardage after contact, with one midseason note indicating that he’d picked up 263 yards in that fashion. It’s guaranteed that the Lions’ defense will deliver hits during the game, so how well Price does in that situation is worth a look.
Grinding It Out: Penn State
While Penn State quarterback Drew Allar may not be able to match Leonard’s rushing numbers, he can hand off to veterans who’ve been productive for the past three seasons. Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton have been a lethal one-punch for the Leions, gaining an average of 5.7 yards per carry, regardless of which one is carrying the ball.
Roughly half of Penn State’s first down calls for the 2024 campaign have been runs. Having such knowledge is one thing but stopping Allen or Singleton is the challenge that awaits. The Lions’ running game has been especially effective on third down, averaging five yards per carry.
Predictably, Penn State runners have averaged 4.83 yards in third-and-short situations but have been especially effective when the yardage needed spans from four to six yards. In that instance, the LIons’ average gain has been 7.19 yards, a number to be aware of during Thursday night’s clash.
Defensive Standoff
Even though both Notre Dame and Penn State have offenses that can put plenty of points on the board. the adage of defense winning championships remains an important facet of this time of year. As good as the Irish defenders have been, the Lions have largely matched the numbers put up by Al Golden’s unit.
The combination of sacks and quarterback hurries is virtually even between the two programs, with Notre Dame having 37 sacks and 45 hurries and Penn State 39 and 38 respectively. Both teams have intercepted 18 passes, while the Irish have a 16 to 10 edge when it comes to forcing fumbles.
The Irish also have an edge when it comes to pass breakups with 60 to their credit, compared to 48 for the Lions. Where Penn State has a clear edge is in making stops behind the line of scrimmage, with 111 tackles-for-loss matched up against 80 for Notre Dame.
Abdul Carter has been a terror for the Lions when it comes to those stops behind the line with 22 on the year. However, he left the Boise State win with an injury and doesn’t figure to be fully healthy. Still, even without him, Penn State has players up front like linemen Zane Durant and Dani Dennis-Sutton as well as middle linebacker Kobe King. This trio has collectively contributed 29.5 tackles-for-loss, including 12.5 sacks this season.
Kicking Things Around
In a game this crucial, the respective kicking games may ultimately end up deciding who wins and loses. Both teams have effective weapons in this area with Notre Dame breathing a sigh of relief after Mitch Jeter’s Sugar Bowl performance. The transfer who’s battled injuries booted three field goals, all three from between 44 and 48 yards.
Penn State has its own weapon in freshman Ryan Barker, who made 14 of his 17 field goal attempts. He was automatic inside the 40, and six-of-eight from midfield with his biggest clutch performance coming in the overtime win at Southern Cal. He kicked four field goals, including the game-winner in the extra session, though that pressure pales in comparison to the stakes on Thursday night.
